It was once famously said that “life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived forwards.” And that is certainly true regarding how the “Great Shutdown” era impacted American society. But while much of that story is still being written several years later…we can be quite confident that the way people approach their personal health (and wellness) will never quite be the same again. As an example, occasion-based vitamins and supplements thrived as consumers invested in certain condition-specific products seen as more beneficial when battling against “Great Shutdown” paradigm shifts. And arguably the most prominent activity that year involved immune health…with the Nutrition Business Journal reporting a retail sales spike of over 70% YoY in 2020, as “cold, flu, and immunity” supplements experienced something like $2 billion in additional categorical demand. But after that skyrocketing commercial activity, the “cold, flu, and immunity” VMS category has experienced several years straight of consistent mid-single-digits YoY retail sales decline. Additionally, household penetration for immunity-related VMS products have dropped by over five percentage points since 2020. So then…should we assume that immune health is no longer a high priority for consumers? Not exactly…as it seems even despite that decline in commercial activity, various consumer surveys throughout 2024 have noted immune health remains an important motivating factor for supplement use. Moreover, survey findings show that a quarter of U.S. consumers are increasing their use of supplements to boost immunity…with approximately 1 in 6 regularly taking an immune health supplement. So, what’s going on within the immunity-related CPG space? Are the last several years of negative categorical growth indicative of its outlook? Or is the future ripe with market opportunities? My latest first principles thinking content will explore those questions by first examining a few underlying drivers of demand like around the implications of consumers understanding that immunity needs are multidimensional and making it a constant year-long health condition pursuit...along with how “fear” influenced the purchasing of immunity-related CPG products in 2020. And since we’re talking about consumer packaged goods…I'll briefly explaining where I see the “product” opportunities emerging within the “immune health” space. Also, I'll detail an often-overlooked strategic element when it comes to the immunity-related CPG market, that too many companies focus on the dry product benefits when the opportunity is really in emotive storytelling that makes offerings more relatable and tangible.

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