In this episode, Mike and Rory talk about the importance of using leading indicators when trading. Rory mentions 3 of the latest that he has been looking at Including the ISM Manufacturing, ISM Services and the ESR report.  The ISM reports can give a great indication of how both the manufacturing side of the economy and the services are reacting. They give their own indication of prices and employment as Rory mentions how they can be used to predict the NFP report. 
 Mike talks about how traders heavily rely on the Non-Farm Payrolls report released on the first Friday of each month and shares his insights into how to trade it correctly.  
 The blokes then briefly mention how you can use leading indicators such as ISM to predict larger indicators such as GDP and remain 1 step ahead of the market. 
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Importance Of Leading Indicators

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This is the last podcast of the year & the Blokes discuss how 2023 has been a great year for traders. 2024 has a lot to live up too after a really strong year, seeing so many opportunities throughout the markets.  
 Tech Stocks have seen some great gains with the biggest winner in the S&P; being Nvidia, seeing a 230% gain. This is a result of the current AI boom! Jonathan believes AMD could be one to watch in 2024, with the release of its newest chip.  
 Across currencies we saw some good volatility & directional moves. We also had some big moves in Oil & Gold with the former hitting all time highs, briefly! 
 As we close in on the end of 2023 the volatility is slowly winding down & the blokes suggest everyone to take a break & come back in 2024 refreshed! 
 We would like to thank all of our loyal listeners & wish you all a very happy holiday.

2023 Has Been A Great Year For Traders

In this podcast Jonathan & Adam scan the markets, with the current theme being the trend is your friend! This morning the markets were thin after thanksgiving on Friday, but we did see a slight pickup as the day went on. Markets are currently directional which is great for traders, the DXY remains bearish & stocks are soaring with market sentiment firmly risk on, as we approach the Christmas period. Jonathan discusses how over the early years of his trading journey he let his bias dictate his decision making, regardless of the trend & even went through a period of counter trend trading. In recent years he has found his success rate increase when he aligns his bias with the trend. This lessens the amount of trading opportunities but has substantially increased the success rate of his trades. Adam goes on to discuss how he feels there maybe a short term market shift about to happen as he believes the markets are currently overextended & we may see some cooling off, this might be the time to reassess the shorter term direction. However Adam feels that 2024 will be a strong year with Tech & AI growing rapidly. Adam also believes that global economies will recover next year & we may see a strong pick up, however Jonathan disagrees & feels it will take more time to fully recover. The blokes go on to discuss the impact rising interest rates have had on the markets, plus how the world is adapting to a new way of life in this faced paced environment.  The blokes move on to scan the markets looking at US Indices which are currently flying, with most of the blue chip companies taking advantage of the Santa rally. Jonathan goes on to give his opinion on Oil & Gold with the latter reaching 6 month highs. The blokes then look at some USD pairs with most markets taking advantage of Dollar weakness. To conclude the episode, Adam shares his hot tips on the market, which are Disney & ASML, whereas Jonathan feels Nvidia has further to go due to It’s domination of the AI chip market, which is expected to grow by 38% annually for the next decade, almost ensuring continued upside for Nvidia. You can join the blokes in our community & receive access to our education, market breakdowns, trade ideas, live webinars & much more.

Trend Is Your Friend

Jonathan and Rory talk though the importance the economic calendar for all traders. A lot of traders believe that certain data doesn’t move the markets enough and that they should ignore it. But using this information to your advantage can give you a trading edge. The economic Calendar provides real-time updates on economic news and trends, allowing individuals to make more informed investment decisions. This information gives you a macro outlook, allowing you to a receive an insight into key data such as GDP, Inflation, Unemployment, international relations & political changes. During the episode, Rory & Jonathan share how they use the data not just for volatility trading but to confirm or deny pre-existing biases we may have. For example, if you think the economy is struggling and the PMI report is growing each time, the market might not move but maybe you should change your bias? It’s about using the data in your favour to add further confirmations which will in turn help your consistency. The Blokes then discuss the PCE index, which is released next week, what it means and the importance of it to traders. Rory mentions how the PCE is the Fed’s preferred method to gauge inflation along with describing exactly how it’s calculated. If you really want to improve your trading, then you need to use all the resources at your disposal to build a bias whether that bullish or bearish. Listen now to find out more!

Importance of the Economic Calendar

One of the main talking points over the weekend was the production cuts from OPEC. It’s looking possible that over 1 million barrels per day could be cut from supply as fear enters the market that demand could be drying up. We have already seen on Monday that price is up nearly 3% towards $78 and speculation is that it will continue towards 80. DXY continues the move lower today as more negativity creeps in. There seems to be a strong risk on appetite in markets and with implied interest rates moving lower, strength in USD is fading as a break of 103 looks likely. Other FX crosses seem to be taking advantage of this with USDJPY moving towards 148, USDCAD holding on the trend line and USDNOK moving lower from the higher oil prices (NOK benefiting) Gold continues to move sideways unable to take advantage of a weaker dollar. Jonathan still holds his thoughts of selling gold at 2000 and narrowly missed a great shirt at price rallied above 1990. Indices within the UK remain subdued as weaker oil prices impact the FTSE100 constituents. US indices continue moving higher with the NASDAQ pushing higher towards 16,000.  With the macro picture still not looking all positive but a soft landing looking more likely, how will you be positioned going into the remainder of 2023?

Oil rallying to $100 per barrel?

In this podcast , Jonathan and Rory discuss how to trade news headlines. The key is to understand the impact & domino effect these headlines can have on companies & markets.  Immersing yourself within the financial markets is key to construct your trade and investment ideas. The example Rory covers, is around Maersk letting go 10,000 workers. We ask, if they are seeing less demand what does this mean for other stocks in the sector? What does this mean for the market, the economy and global trade? We also talk about inflation and deflation problems in China and Japan. How the weak JPY is causing high inflation and how the strong CNY is causing deflation due to imports becoming cheaper. This also means exports are dropping which isn’t helping things as China received another huge stimulus pump earlier this week. Jonathan also talks us through the many opportunities that have been in markets this year as we draw to a close. With so many moves in dollar, Jonathan talks us through how he was long dollar from July based off his bias that the fed were not going to cut interest rates earlier this year. Both Jonathan and Rory explain that the cuts in monetary policy there were due around this time, were pushed back so far that it was taken hawkish by traders hence the strong run higher in US Dollar/DXY. Understanding how macroeconomics shape markets is essential to understanding trading and the Two Blokes Trading app is the best place to start. Join our 1500 + members today and sign up for free below

Importance Of Leading Indicators

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