A spur-of-the-moment, off-the-top-of-my-head take on what's going (wr)on(g) in Belarus: the Russian connection or rather the absence of any evidence of one, Lukashenko's motivations, and above all what can be done. We need a strategy, a sense of what we want, and above all to realise that we cannot force change on Belarus but should rather help the Belarusian people generate it.

The article by Leonid Ragozin I mention is here.  For a general take of mine from August of last year that I think still broadly holds up. see here.  On Vakulchik and general Belarusian security politics, I note a short cellcast of mine here. 

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