Everybody wants to know what is going to happen with the insurance industry if interest rates go up, go down, stay the same, etc. So, we figured today was as good a day as any to address some speculation but also to discuss what the industry does to plan for various interest rate movements—because it’s not as reactionary as people tend to believe.
So, does the insurance industry just sit around and wait to see what will happen, then scramble around to figure it out after that?
As much as the people at the financial blogs who like to make money bashing life insurance want you to believe that’s how it works, no. That’s not what how it works.
There is a little forethought. I’m understating it—there’s a lot of planning and modeling that takes place at life insurance companies to address interest rate risk.
Let’s start with the doom and gloom first, then we’ll move on to sunnier pastures.
What Happens if Interest Rates Stay Down?
Say interest rates stay low—which probably isn’t going to happen, at least to the degree that they’re at right now. We know that one of the biggest threats facing insurers is interest rates that continue to trend below various targets that they have set as profit markers. Insurers derive a vast majority of their profits from the spread that is achieved over and above the interest rates they have guaranteed policy owners.
An example illustrates the point: if you buy a Universal Life Insurance policy, and the company guarantees you 2.5%, and they buy bonds that pay 4.5%, life’s not so bad.
If, however, fifteen years down the road, the 2.5% guarantee is still in place but they can’t buy bonds that pay any more than 2.25%, life isn’t so good. Now, that’s an extreme example, and not what the insurance companies are facing, but it illustrates the point.
Keep in mind that the life insurance industry has been dealing with this prolonged period of artificially low-interest rates for nearly a decade. There’s no doubt it has compressed their margins substantially.
In prior decades, the insurance industry was in a situation where they could guarantee you 5% on a portion of your cash in a Whole Life policy. Yes, you read the correctly…5% on the guarantee.
Then they would take that money and put it into a bond that paid about 8.5%. Things were great and with participating Whole Life Insurance, they returned a big portion of it to the policyholder.
So, it was good for the insurance company, good for the policyholder, and life was good for everyone. These days, that scenario isn’t quite as rich.
Now that we’re here as a result of this prolonged period of super low-interest rates, what do we speculate will happen if insurance companies if they have to continue to deal with low-interest rates moving forward?
In the short-term, the likelihood is that they won’t have to deal with low-interest rates. Interest rates are certainly on the rise…for now.
Understanding Short-Term Interest Rates vs. Long-Term Interest Rates
First let’s take a detour and make an important distinction: When everyone talks about the Fed raising rates, that’s the Fed fund rates. The Federal Reserve doesn’t control rates on long-term bonds. It can influence, but it cannot dictate.
Interest rates on long-term bonds are set by the market.
How interest rates apply to whole life insurance
If rates continue to stay low, insurance companies will continue to struggle, not in terms of solvency, but in terms of getting you the return you were hoping to get. There’s a good chance that if you bought a Whole Life Insurance policy twenty years ago, and their dividend interest rate was over 8% at the time, your policy has greatly underperformed what you hoped it would.
And if interest rates continue to stay low, it will continue to underperform into the future. Actually, it’ll always underperform because you can’t get back the interest that you lo...