In the world of risk there are specific things that typically get mentioned–market risk, liquidity risk, interest rate risk and systemic risk. But before you all run away thinking that we’re going to get in some mind-numbing conversation about such esoteric concepts…don’t fret, we’re not.
No, in fact we’re going to discuss a different type of risk altogether. One that is much more practical and is very real. Or at least should be very real to us all.
There’s one risk that is the most infamous of them all (or should be)…sequence of returns risk. I know we throw around such terminology as if it means anything to the rest of the world.
We refer to it as if it’s as common as Advil®.
But what does “sequence of returns risk” really mean? It’s the risk that you face as you accumulate and/or spend down the assets you’ve accumulated and having returns that occur in a particular order that accelerates the risk that you’ll run out of money more rapidly than you thought.
It’s a concept we’ve outlined before in our very obscurely named post:
Why Life Insurance Works So Well for Retirement Income.
An Illustration to Make it Real
Let’s talk about Bob.
Bob has a portfolio with a value of $1 million. He has decided that he’s going to take $50,000 (5% of his balance) each year from his portfolio as “income” to supplement his social security and his small pension.
For this illustration we’re looking at a 20 year time period and we’re assuming an assortment of various returns (in our attempt to model how the market might behave–ups and downs).
The average return for the 20 year period is 6.85%.
If we’re being super geeky, we would refer to this 6.85% as the arithmetic mean.
Assuming this set of random returns, we distribute Bob’s $50,000 per year from the $1 million balance. And after 20 years, Bob has a bit more than a $1 million.
By virtue of market appreciation, Bob hasn’t lost any of his principal balance. In fact, he’s a little better off than when he started out and he’s managed to take out $50,000 per year.
So, he’s taken a total of $1 million (20 years x $50k/year) from his portfolio and he still has a bit more than a $1 million.
Pretty sweet.
Now, to get show clearly illustrate for you sequence of returns risk, we’ve taken the exact same returns…only we flipped them over so that they occur in reverse order.
Bob starts with the same $1 million and withdraws $50,000 per year. The average return is the same 6.85%.
But because the returns fall at different times during the 20 year timeframe, Bob runs out of money at the end of year 19. See the numbers below.
What’s happening here? Why does Bob run out of money if his average return is the same?
Assume that scenario #1 is akin to Bob starting his 50k “income distribution” in the late 90’s when the tech bubble was the tide raising all ships. Scenario #2 is like Bob taking the same 50k but starting in early 2007 or maybe the spring of 2000 is a better example.
As a result of being hit with negative years at the very beginning, the portfolio takes a beating. And because Bob is taking out 50k every year, he compounds the effect of the problem.
The big issue here that’s totally out of Bob’s control (and everyone else’s for that matter) is the timing at which a particular return takes place. You can diversity all you want and you can reduce certain risks.
But the diversification is too often misapplied. Too many people assume that a certain portfolio mix (stocks, bonds,