The episode opens with Bhatt framing the global stakes: from drones on the battlefield to AI-powered early warning systems, militaries worldwide are racing to integrate AI, often citing strategic necessity in volatile security environments. Mohan underscores that AI in conflict cannot be characterized in a single way, applications range from decision-support systems and logistics to disinformation campaigns and border security.

The conversation explores two categories of AI-related risks:

• Inherent risks: design flaws, bias in datasets, adversarial attacks, and human–machine trust calibration.
• Applied risks: escalation through miscalculation, misuse in targeting, and AI’s role as a force multiplier for nuclear and cyber threats.

On governance, Mohan explains the fragmentation of current disarmament processes, where AI intersects with multiple regimes, nuclear, cyber, conventional arms, yet lacks a unified framework. She highlights ongoing debates at the UN’s Group of Governmental Experts (GGE) on LAWS, where consensus has been stalled over definitions, human-machine interaction, and whether regulation should be voluntary or treaty-based.

International humanitarian law (IHL) remains central, with discussions focusing on how principles like distinction, proportionality, and precaution can apply to autonomous systems. Mohan also emphasizes a “life-cycle approach” to weapon assessment, extending legal and ethical oversight from design to deployment and decommissioning.

A significant portion of the conversation turns to gender and bias, an area Mohan has advanced through her research at UNIDIR. She draws attention to how gendered and racial biases encoded in AI systems can manifest in conflict, stressing the importance of diversifying participation in both technology design and disarmament diplomacy.

Looking forward, Mohan cites UN Secretary-General António Guterres’s call for a legally binding instrument on autonomous weapons by 2026. She argues that progress will depend on multi-stakeholder engagement, national strategies on AI, and confidence-building measures between states. The episode closes with a reflection on the future of warfare as inseparable from governance innovation—shifting from arms reduction to resilience, capacity-building, and responsible innovation.

Episode Contributors

Shimona Mohan is an associate researcher on Gender & Disarmament and Security & Technology at UNIDIR in Geneva, Switzerland. She was named among Women in AI Ethics’ “100 Brilliant Women in AI Ethics for 2024.” Her areas of focus include the multifarious intersections of security, emerging technologies (in particular AI and cybersecurity), gender, and disarmament. 

Charukeshi Bhatt is a research analyst at Carnegie India, where her work focuses on the intersection of emerging technologies and international security. Her current research explores how advancements in technologies such as AI are shaping global disarmament frameworks and security norms.

Readings

Gender and Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems, UNIDIR Factsheet 

Political Declaration on Responsible Military Use of AI and Autonomy, US Department of State

AI in the Military Domain: A Briefing Note for States by Giacomo Persi Paoli and Yasmin Afina

Understanding the Global Debate on Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems: An Indian Perspective by Charukeshi Bhatt and Tejas Bharadwaj

Every two weeks, Interpreting India brings you diverse voices from India and around the world to explore the critical questions shaping the nation's future. We delve into how technology, the economy, and foreign policy intertwine to influence India's relationship with the global stage.

As a Carnegie India production, hosted by Carnegie scholars, Interpreting India, a Carnegie India production, provides insightful perspectives and cutting-edge by tackling the defining questions that chart India's course through the next decade.

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The episode begins with Kapoor explaining the origins of AI Snake Oil, tracing it back to his PhD research at Princeton on AI's limited predictive capabilities in social science domains. He shares how he and co-author Arvind Narayanan uncovered major methodological flaws in civil war prediction models, which later extended to other fields misapplying machine learning.

The conversation then turns to the disconnect between academic findings and media narratives. Kapoor critiques the hype cycle around AI, emphasizing how its real-world adoption is slower, more fragmented, and often augmentative rather than fully automating human labor. He cites the enduring demand for radiologists as a case in point.

Kapoor introduces the concept of “AI as normal technology,” which rejects both the notion of imminent superintelligence and the dismissal of AI as a passing fad. He argues that, like other general-purpose technologies (electricity, the internet), AI will gradually reshape industries, mediated by social, economic, and organizational factors—not just technical capabilities.

The episode also examines the speculative worldviews put forth by documents like AI 2027, which warn of AGI-induced catastrophe. Kapoor outlines two key disagreements: current AI systems are not technically on track to achieve general intelligence, and even capable systems require human and institutional choices to wield real-world power.

On policy, Kapoor emphasizes the importance of investing in AI complements—such as education, workforce training, and regulatory frameworks—to enable meaningful and equitable AI integration. He advocates for resilience-focused policies, including cybersecurity preparedness, unemployment protection, and broader access to AI tools.

The episode concludes with a discussion on recalibrating expectations. Kapoor urges policymakers to move beyond benchmark scores and collaborate with domain experts to measure AI’s real impact. In a rapid-fire segment, he names the myth of AI predicting the future as the most misleading and humorously imagines a superintelligent AI fixing global cybersecurity first if it ever emerged.

Episode Contributors

Sayash Kapoor is a computer science Ph.D. candidate at Princeton University's Center for Information Technology Policy. His research focuses on the societal impact of AI. He previously worked on AI in the industry and academia at Facebook, Columbia University, and EPFL Switzerland. He is a recipient of a best paper award at ACM FAccT and an impact recognition award at ACM CSCW.

Nidhi Singh is a senior research analyst and program manager at Carnegie India. Her current research interests include data governance, artificial intelligence and emerging technologies. Her work focuses on the implications of information technology law and policy from a Global Majority and Asian perspective. 

Suggested Readings

AI as Normal Technology by Arvind Narayanan and Sayash Kapoor.

Every two weeks, Interpreting India brings you diverse voices from India and around the world to explore the critical questions shaping the nation's future. We delve into how technology, the economy, and foreign policy intertwine to influence India's relationship with the global stage.

As a Carnegie India production, hosted by Carnegie scholars, Interpreting India, a Carnegie India production, provides insightful perspectives and cutting-edge by tackling the defining questions that chart India's course through the next decade.

Stay tuned for thought-provoking discussions, expert insights, and a deeper understanding of India's place in the world.

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The episode opens with an in-depth discussion about the value of open source as a model of development and how the definitional contours of open-source AI differ from those of traditional open-source software. The discussion also explores the characteristics and challenges that distinguish open-source AI models from conventional software development approaches.

The discussion goes on to address recent strategic shifts in the AI industry towards more open development, sparked by developments like DeepSeek's open-source R1 model and leaked internal assessments suggesting that open-source communities may be outpacing tech giants.

The discussion also explores the complex trade-offs between open and closed AI development. While open-source models offer transparency, democratization, and innovation benefits, they also present cybersecurity vulnerabilities and potential national security risks. Nadh addresses concerns about jailbreaking vulnerabilities in open models, using DeepSeek's recent security lapses as an example, while also examining the limitations and risks of closed proprietary systems.

Nadh also provides his perspective on India-specific considerations, including the government's IndiaAI Mission and the decision to develop a homegrown large language model, and discuss the strategic implications of India's approach, which is not expected to be open-source at first, and the potential for India to make meaningful progress in driving open-source AI development as a matter of policy. 

Episode Contributors 

Kailash Nadh is the chief technology officer of Zerodha, India’s leading stock brokerage platform, where he has led its technology and product stack development since 2013. He is also the co-founder and director of FOSS United, a non-profit foundation based in Bangalore, that aims to provide grassroot support to free and open-source software projects and communities in India. In addition to being a full-stack software developer with more than two decades of technical experience, Nath holds a PhD in artificial intelligence and computational linguistics. His most recent writings also provide a compelling analysis of open-source software developments and AI breakthroughs, including in the Indian context. 

Shruti Mittal is a research analyst at Carnegie India. Her current research interests include artificial intelligence, semiconductors, compute, and data governance. She is also interested in studying the potential socio-economic value that open development and diffusion of technologies can create in the Global South.

Every two weeks, Interpreting India brings you diverse voices from India and around the world to explore the critical questions shaping the nation's future. We delve into how technology, the economy, and foreign policy intertwine to influence India's relationship with the global stage.

As a Carnegie India production, hosted by Carnegie scholars, Interpreting India, a Carnegie India production, provides insightful perspectives and cutting-edge by tackling the defining questions that chart India's course through the next decade.

Stay tuned for thought-provoking discussions, expert insights, and a deeper understanding of India's place in the world.

Don't forget to subscribe, share, and leave a review to join the conversation and be part of Interpreting India's journey.

In this conversation, Aadil Brar and Saheb Singh Chadha examine how China's strategic behavior across the India-China border, Taiwan Strait, and South China Sea reflects a broader effort to create regional influence and redefine border security under Xi Jinping. Aadil explains how Beijing frames these actions as issues of national sovereignty, using military presence and political rhetoric to entrench its claims.

They explore the “chain reaction” thesis, which suggests that China prepares for simultaneous tensions on multiple fronts in anticipation of external responses—especially in the event of a Taiwan contingency. This perspective, Aadil argues, helps explain China’s sustained activity along the LAC.

The discussion also delves into China’s efforts to normalize military exercises around Taiwan, making it harder to distinguish military exercises from wartime operations. While these tactics project strength, they may also be prompting diplomatic recalibration as China confronts the strategic consequences of its assertiveness.

Episode Contributors

Aadil Brar is a TV reporter for TaiwanPlus News based in Taipei. Prior to this, he was the China News Reporter for Newsweek and wrote columns for The Print India. His experience includes working with the BBC World Service and National Geographic, covering topics such as international affairs, geopolitics, environmental conservation, and border conflicts. In 2016, he received the National Geographic Young Explorer Grant.

Saheb Singh Chadha is a senior research analyst in the Security Studies Program at Carnegie India. His research focuses on China’s foreign and security policies, India-China relations, and India’s military modernization. He is broadly interested in the geopolitics of South Asia and the Indo-Pacific.

Additional Readings

Views From Taipei: Essays by Young Indian Scholars on China by Vijay Gokhale, Suyash Desai, Amit Kumar, and Aadil Brar

Every two weeks, Interpreting India brings you diverse voices from India and around the world to explore the critical questions shaping the nation's future. We delve into how technology, the economy, and foreign policy intertwine to influence India's relationship with the global stage.

As a Carnegie India production, hosted by Carnegie scholars, Interpreting India, a Carnegie India production, provides insightful perspectives and cutting-edge by tackling the defining questions that chart India's course through the next decade.

Stay tuned for thought-provoking discussions, expert insights, and a deeper understanding of India's place in the world.

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Saheb and Suyash begin by laying out where the PLA stands today in terms of its strengths, weaknesses, and the factors driving its evolution. While the PLA has made major strides in modernizing across land, air, sea, space, and cyber, it still struggles with issues like deep-rooted corruption, a lack of well-trained personnel, and delays in meeting its own ambitious goals.

The discussion dives into how the PLA is preparing for a potential Taiwan contingency through new mobilization efforts, localized recruitment (especially in border regions like Tibet), and more frequent joint military exercises. Suyash argues that despite these efforts, the PLA still isn’t ready for a full-scale operation anytime soon. 

They also examine China’s changing nuclear posture, including its gradual shift toward a “launch on warning” approach. Even though both India and China adhere to no-first-use policies, new developments in missile systems and strategic signaling are quietly reshaping the region’s security dynamics.

Finally, the episode looks at what all this means for India. With growing military capabilities on both sides, we may be entering a period of “armed coexistence”—a tense, yet controlled standoff that defines the new normal along the India–China border.

Episode Contributors

Suyash Desai is a nonresident fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) and a political scientist specializing in China’s defense, foreign policies, and nuclear strategy. His research focuses on Chinese military affairs, security and foreign policy issues, nuclear strategy, India-China relations, and strategic and security developments in East Asia and the Indo-Pacific region. 

Saheb Singh Chadha is a senior research analyst in the Security Studies Program at Carnegie India. His research focuses on China’s foreign and security policies, India-China relations, and India’s military modernization. He is broadly interested in the geopolitics of South Asia and the Indo-Pacific.

Additional Readings

Views From Taipei: Essays by Young Indian Scholars on China by Vijay Gokhale, Suyash Desai, Amit Kumar, and Aadil Brar

Every two weeks, Interpreting India brings you diverse voices from India and around the world to explore the critical questions shaping the nation's future. We delve into how technology, the economy, and foreign policy intertwine to influence India's relationship with the global stage.

As a Carnegie India production, hosted by Carnegie scholars, Interpreting India, a Carnegie India production, provides insightful perspectives and cutting-edge by tackling the defining questions that chart India's course through the next decade.

Stay tuned for thought-provoking discussions, expert insights, and a deeper understanding of India's place in the world.

Don't forget to subscribe, share, and leave a review to join the conversation and be part of Interpreting India's journey.

In this conversation, Saheb and Amit examine the three major structural dilemmas facing China’s economy: a persistently low domestic consumption rate of around 40 percent of GDP, making China an outlier among large economies; the Chinese state’s reluctance to adopt fiscal stimulus due to its ideological opposition to welfarism; and a sharp slowdown in real estate investment that has had ripple effects across the broader economy. They also discuss how China’s enduring trade surpluses, particularly with the U.S., EU, and India are generating international pushback. Despite high trade volumes, Amit highlights the limited nature of Chinese investment in India, noting that economic outreach from China is driven less by genuine market interest and more by geopolitical calculations. 

The episode further explores why China’s engagement with regions like Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia cannot substitute for the demand found in Western markets. The episode also looks at how India’s large and growing consumer market could make it a prime destination for companies relocating under the China Plus One strategy, even if Chinese firms themselves remain reluctant to invest directly. Finally, the discussion draws a clear line between China’s diplomatic messaging and its actual economic practices, revealing a gap that continues to shape global perceptions.

Episode Contributors

Amit Kumar is a Staff Research Analyst at the China desk of the Indo-Pacific Studies Programme. With a broader focus on China, he studies issues at the intersection of the economy, technology and security. His work encompasses writings on the Chinese economy, domestic politics, foreign policy, and India-China trade and security issues. 

Saheb Singh Chadha is a senior research analyst in the Security Studies Program at Carnegie India. His research focuses on China’s foreign and security policies, India-China relations, and India’s military modernization. He is broadly interested in the geopolitics of South Asia and the Indo-Pacific.

Suggested Readings

Views From Taipei: Essays by Young Indian Scholars on China by Vijay Gokhale, Suyash Desai, Amit Kumar, and Aadil Brar

Review of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) policy for curbing opportunistic takeovers/acquisitions of Indian companies due to the current COVID-19 pandemic by Ministry of Commerce & Industry 

De-risking India’s Trade with China: Identifying Strategic and Critical Vulnerabilities by Amit Kumar

China isn't Ready to Shift to a Consumption-Driven Economy by Amit Kumar

Is India Warming up to Chinese Investment? By Amit Kumar

China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know by Arthur R. Kroeber

China’s Western Horizon: Beijing and the New Geopolitics of Eurasia by Daniel S. Markey

Every two weeks, Interpreting India brings you diverse voices from India and around the world to explore the critical questions shaping the nation's future. We delve into how technology, the economy, and foreign policy intertwine to influence India's relationship with the global stage.

As a Carnegie India production, hosted by Carnegie scholars, Interpreting India, a Carnegie India production, provides insightful perspectives and cutting-edge by tackling the defining questions that chart India's course through the next decade.

Stay tuned for thought-provoking discussions, expert insights, and a deeper understanding of India's place in the world.

Don't forget to subscribe, share, and leave a review to join the conversation and be part of Interpreting India's journey.

The conversation delves into the shifting contours of global space governance, touching on the rise of dual-use technologies, the importance of transparency and norms in space activities, and the need for trusted partnerships. Samson outlines how India and the U.S. can work together to ensure space remains a stable and secure domain, citing examples from recent dialogues and space exercises. This episode underscores the importance of rules-based order in space and the benefits of integrating space cooperation into broader diplomatic frameworks of both countries, including under the Quad and the U.S.-India strategic tech and defence partnership.

Episode Contributors

Victoria Samson is the Chief Director for Space Security and Stability at the Secure World Foundation, with over 25 years of experience in military space and security issues. She has served as a senior analyst at the Center for Defense Information and is a leading voice in advancing norms of responsible space behavior.

Tejas Bharadwaj is a senior research analyst with the Technology and Society Program at Carnegie India. He focuses on space law and policies and also works on areas related to applications of artificial intelligence and autonomy in the military domain and U.S-India export controls. Tejas is also part of the group that works in convening Carnegie India’s annual flagship event, the “Global Technology Summit” co-organized with the Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India.

Every two weeks, Interpreting India brings you diverse voices from India and around the world to explore the critical questions shaping the nation's future. We delve into how technology, the economy, and foreign policy intertwine to influence India's relationship with the global stage.

As a Carnegie India production, hosted by Carnegie scholars, Interpreting India, a Carnegie India production, provides insightful perspectives and cutting-edge by tackling the defining questions that chart India's course through the next decade.

Stay tuned for thought-provoking discussions, expert insights, and a deeper understanding of India's place in the world.

Don't forget to subscribe, share, and leave a review to join the conversation and be part of Interpreting India's journey.

Episode Notes

Lt Gen P. R. Shankar outlines the evolution of India’s defense industry and how it is nurturing a growing ecosystem of indigenous production. He highlights that India’s armed forces have always been adequately equipped for national defense, the key question being whether it can develop a defence industry that would enable it to act as a regional power.

The discussion explores the historical structure of India’s defence sector, traditionally dominated by public sector organizations such as the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO). It traces the gradual but significant entry of private players into the defence industry, marking a shift towards a more diversified and dynamic ecosystem. Gen. Shankar emphasizes that meaningful reform in procurement processes does not necessarily require more rules; rather clarity of intent, domain expertise, and better coordination among the armed forces, bureaucracy, political leadership, and industry. A key highlight of the episode is the artillery modernization program, which serves as a successful case study of long-term strategic planning and sustained execution, offering valuable lessons for other sectors and weapon systems. The conversation also delves into the relevance of international defense partnerships for deeper co-development and interoperability. Finally, broader reforms such as the introduction of positive indigenization lists, a more robust export policy, and the inclusion of startups and academic institutions like the Indian Institutes of Technology, are seen as critical to strengthening India’s defense industry. 

Episode Contributors

Lt Gen P.R. Shankar (Retd.) is the former Director General of Artillery in the Indian Army and currently a professor in the Aerospace Department at IIT Madras. He has played a key role in India’s artillery modernization and frequently writes on strategic and defense issues. He also runs a YouTube channel, Gunner’s Shot, focusing on defense and geopolitical affairs.

Saheb Singh Chadha is a senior research analyst in the Security Studies Program at Carnegie India. His research focuses on China’s foreign and security policies, India-China relations, and India’s military modernization. He is broadly interested in the geopolitics of South Asia and the Indo-Pacific. He is also a researcher on a project examining the nature and dynamics of cross-border violence and its impact on civilian communities.

Further reading:

1. The Indigenisation of India’s Defence Industry by Dhruva Jaishankar.
2. Framework to restrict Chinese components in military drones submitted to defence ministry by Smruti Deshpande
3. CCS clears mega deal for big indigenous artillery guns by Rajat Pandit
4. Indian defence firms need to invest more in innovations and R&D to keep pace with global standards: Report
5. Defence Procurement Overhaul: MoD Aims To Cut Delays, Faster Acquisitions
6. https://pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetailm.aspx?PRID=2114546®=3&lang=1
7. https://www.business-standard.com/external-affairs-defence-security/news/indian-defence-exports-from-brahmos-to-akash-who-are-the-major-buyers-124102800396_1.html 

Every two weeks, Interpreting India brings you diverse voices from India and around the world to explore the critical questions shaping the nation's future. We delve into how technology, the economy, and foreign policy intertwine to influence India's relationship with the global stage.

As a Carnegie India production, hosted by Carnegie scholars, Interpreting India, a Carnegie India production, provides insightful perspectives and cutting-edge by tackling the defining questions that chart India's course through the next decade.

Stay tuned for thought-provoking discussions, expert insights, and a deeper understanding of India's place in the world.

Don't forget to subscribe, share, and leave a review to join the conversation and be part of Interpreting India's journey.

Anirudh Suri outlines the current AI landscape, discussing how the U.S. and China dominate the AI space while other nations, including India, strive to carve their own niches. The discussion focuses on India's AI strategy, which has emphasized well on compute resources and the procurement of GPUs. However, Suri argues that India's AI ambitions will remain incomplete unless equal emphasis is placed on talent, data, and R&D.

Key challenges in these areas include the migration of top AI talent, the lack of proprietary data for Indian researchers, and insufficient investment in AI R&D. The conversation also explores potential solutions, such as creating AI research hubs, encouraging data-sharing frameworks, and fostering international partnerships to accelerate AI innovation.

Episode Contributors

Anirudh Suri is a nonresident scholar with Carnegie India. His interests lie at the intersection of technology and geopolitics, climate, and strategic affairs. He is currently exploring how India is carving and cementing its role in the global tech ecosystem and the role climate technology can play in addressing the global climate challenge.

Shatakratu Sahu is a senior research analyst and senior program manager with the Technology and Society program at Carnegie India. His research focuses on issues of emerging technologies and regulation of technologies. His current research interests include digital public infrastructure, artificial intelligence, and platform regulation issues of content moderation and algorithmic accountability. 

Additional Readings

The Missing Pieces in India’s AI Puzzle: Talent, Data, and R&D by Anirudh Suri
India’s Advance on AI Regulation by Amlan Mohanty, Shatakratu Sahu
India’s Opportunity at the AI Action Summit by Shatakratu Sahu
India’s Way Ahead on AI – What Should We Look Out For? by Konark Bhandari

Every two weeks, Interpreting India brings you diverse voices from India and around the world to explore the critical questions shaping the nation's future. We delve into how technology, the economy, and foreign policy intertwine to influence India's relationship with the global stage.

As a Carnegie India production, hosted by Carnegie scholars, Interpreting India, a Carnegie India production, provides insightful perspectives and cutting-edge by tackling the defining questions that chart India's course through the next decade.

Stay tuned for thought-provoking discussions, expert insights, and a deeper understanding of India's place in the world.

Don't forget to subscribe, share, and leave a review to join the conversation and be part of Interpreting India's journey.

Peter Harrell outlines the Trump administration's evolving approach to tariffs and their implications for U.S.-India trade relations. The discussion covers the impact of proposed reciprocal tariffs, which could significantly affect Indian exports, and explores opportunities for India to leverage cooperation with the U.S. on Chinese overcapacity as a strategic bargaining tool.

The conversation also delves into India’s EV policy aimed at attracting Tesla, its semiconductor supply chain challenges amid U.S. scrutiny of Chinese exports, and the potential for India to benefit from a collective tariff approach with the U.S. and the EU against Chinese overcapacity.

Episode Contributors

Peter Harrell is a nonresident fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He also serves as an attorney advising companies and investors on international legal, regulatory, and geopolitical risks. As a member of Carnegie’s American Statecraft program, Harrell’s research focuses on issues of U.S. domestic economic competitiveness, trade policy, and the use of economic tools in U.S. foreign policy.

Konark Bhandari is a research fellow with the Technology and Society Program at Carnegie India, focusing on U.S.-India relations, trade policy, and emerging technologies.

Additional Readings

The U.S.–India Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET) from 2022 to 2025: Assessment, Learnings, and the Way Forward by Rudra Chaudhuri and Konark Bhandari. 

The Geopolitics of the Semiconductor Industry and India’s Place in It by Konark Bhandari.

Time to Reset the U.S. Trade Agenda by Peter Harrell.

Every two weeks, Interpreting India brings you diverse voices from India and around the world to explore the critical questions shaping the nation's future. We delve into how technology, the economy, and foreign policy intertwine to influence India's relationship with the global stage.

As a Carnegie India production, hosted by Carnegie scholars, Interpreting India, a Carnegie India production, provides insightful perspectives and cutting-edge by tackling the defining questions that chart India's course through the next decade.

Stay tuned for thought-provoking discussions, expert insights, and a deeper understanding of India's place in the world.

Don't forget to subscribe, share, and leave a review to join the conversation and be part of Interpreting India's journey.