Israel Update

Mike and Gadi have already written Netanyahu's speech in their imagination to their own satisfaction – we'll soon see how well they've guessed. But one thing is not in doubt: Iran will be a major theme. Judging by the prime minister's recent public statements, he is going to describe Israel as standing at the forefront of the West's war against "Iran's axis of evil." This seems like a pretty obvious thing to say in the US, but in the context of the current administration's regional policy – it is anything but. Mike and Gadi explain why.

Also: how will substituting Joe Biden for Kamala Harris as the Democratic Party's presidential candidate affect Israel?

Bonus: Joe Biden vs. Thomas Sowell https://x.com/GadiTaub1/status/1815265490010292440

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The failed assassination attempt on the former president will have vast consequences for the Middle East, some of which will be felt immediately. Israel, Mike argues, will have a freer hand to fight Hamas. A Trump victory however, with J.D. Vance as VP, will have far vaster effects on the region. Mike and Gadi discuss. 

Meanwhile, the incitement against PM Netanyahu crosses the line into a virtual calls for his assassination. Yet Israel's law enforcement seems not to have learned from the American lesson. Plus: a rift between Netanyahu and Gallant re the Philadelphi Corridor looms behind the attempt to reach a hostage deal with Hamas. 

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The question is not just about the day after. It is also about the day before the day after: what should count as victory? Some have declared the return of the hostages to be the only meaning of victory and are willing to push for a deal almost at any price. But that means that in the real world, Hamas would be able to declare victory. This will not fly with the Netanyahu coalition. But even within the coalition, and importantly, between the politicians and the IDF brass, there are very different ideas of what this war can and should achieve. Gadi and Mike don't necessarily agree on the issue. 

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The American presidential debate was a moment of truth – or lack thereof – for the press. It also has consequences for Israel and the Middle East. Mike and Gadi discuss.

This week also saw an Israeli Supreme Court decision ordering the draft of all ultra-orthodox men. The decision is threatening the stability of Netanyahu's coalition. Mike and Gadi explain why this has become such a contested issue, and how religion, nationalism and progressivism define what Left and Right mean in Israel today.

Then there is also a uniquely dumb take on the news. Join us and stay updated about Israel and its war.

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Netanyahu's video message that called out the US on withholding arms from Israel succeeded – first the administration denied the facts, but then it opened the bureaucratic bottlenecks (see Mike's piece about this below). Few commentators, however, took note of the fact that there was a warning in that video – one which was later enhanced in Netanyahu's two major public statements this week. The war as the prime minister is now defining it, is a seven-front war with Iran. With a speech before a joint session of the two houses of congress scheduled for July 24, the administration must be worried that its Iran appeasement policy is in danger of being exposed. And all that, on the backdrop of the West's inability to fight wokeness, its autoimmune cultural disease. Mike and Gadi discuss the connection. 

https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-east/articles/biden-italian-strike-israel-arms-shipments

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The repeated attempts of the Biden administration to arrange a color revolution in Israel in order to topple Netanyahu's government are failing – partly because the Israeli "Resistance" is unable to muster more than a few thousand chronic Never-Bibi protestors. Israelis have no patience with people threatening to "paralyze the country" when so many are sending their sons and daughters to risk their lives in Gaza. Also: Gadi and Mike disagreed on whether IDF brass insubordination is becoming a real problem in Israel's ability to win the war. 

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A bold rescue operation Nuseirat; Benny Gantz quits the war time coalition; a UN Security Council resolution for a ceasefire and a hostage deal; steep escalation between Hezbollah and Israel in the north, and – if all this is not enough – a looming crisis for the coalition over drafting of ultra-orthodox men to the IDF. Gadi and Mike untangle these strands and conclude that for now Netanyahu's coalition is not on the verge of collapse, despite the Biden administration's best efforts.

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President Biden made a dramatic speech on Friday announcing an Israeli offer for a far-reaching hostage deal. Prime Minster Netanyahu's response at first made it seem like Biden was distorting Israel's position beyond recognition. It turned out that the truth behind the move was far more complicated. Mike and Gadi unpack the calculations of the different parties.

Also in this episode: the North is burning.

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A reservist soldier recorded a video addressing Prime Minister Netanyahu, and telling him that the army is behind him, but also calling on Minister of Security Gallant to resign if he is not determined to win this war, and that if he does not, the army will not follow him. The press filled with outrage against this "sedition." An investigation was promptly launched. Meanwhile, the newly elected leader of the tiny Labor Party, General Yair Golan, called on reservists not to report to duty until the government calls for new elections. 

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A whirlwind week in Israeli politics: Ministers Yoav Gallant and Benny Gantz delivered two ultimatums to prime minister Netanyahu, threatening to dissolve the cabinet they are both still members of. Both held independent talks with high American officials prior to the move. Did they coordinate with the Americans, or with each other? Is the government about to be dissolved? And how will international arrest warrants from The Hague, against Netanyahu and Gallant, play out in Israeli politics? Mike and Gadi suggest ways to connect the dots. 

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