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00:01:16 The Wrap Methodology

00:11:36 The 3 P Technique

00:18:44 The ICE Scoring Model

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• The WRAP method was devised to specifically address blind spots. WRAP stands for widen your options, reality-test, attain distance, and prepare to be wrong. As you can see, these are not typical ways to approach a decision, though they can serve you well because they represent what is likelier to happen in the real world.

• The 3P technique was created by poker player Annie Duke. It consists of preferences, payoffs and probabilities. Preferences refer to your goals and what you’re actually hoping to achieve, payoffs are the potential benefits of different outcomes, and probabilities speaks to the confidence you have in certain predictions of the future. It’s these informed predictions that allow us to make good decisions.

• The ICE scoring model also rests on considering three key components of any decision. The first is impact (the potential for you a choice, idea, action, or decision to serve your main life goals), the second is confidence (how sure you are that this outcome will follow your action, bearing in mind that luck and chance play a role), and ease (how easy it is to make the particular decision). A subjectively good decision is one in which has a high probability of having a high impact on your goals, whilst being easy to achieve. The bad decision is the opposite.

• There is overlap between ICE and 3P, and both have limitations, i.e. they depend on our accurate assessment of the three aspects!

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