Today we had the pleasure of hosting Michael Mische, Associate Professor of Management at the University of Southern California’s Marshall School of Business. Michael joined the USC faculty in 1997 and also serves as CEO and a Managing Member of the Synergy Consulting Group. At Marshall, he leads and coordinates the school’s undergraduate and graduate curricula in management consulting. Our interest in connecting with Michael was sparked by his recent report, “A Study of California Gasoline Prices” (linked here). The study presents a comprehensive, data-driven analysis of the persistently high retail gasoline prices in California. We were thrilled to explore the findings of the report and hear Michael’s broader perspective on California’s energy and power landscape.
 
In our discussion, we cover the main themes of Michael’s report, beginning with his long-standing interest in the oil and gas industry dating back to the 1973 Arab oil embargo. We explore the study’s key finding that there is no evidence of price manipulation or gouging by refiners, and Michael’s conclusion that California’s high gasoline prices are a direct result of deliberate policy choices. Michael explains why policymakers pursue these strategies, why Californians tolerate higher energy costs, and how these policies create economic strain for lower income residents. We cover the broader economic impact of California energy policies, including the departure of more than 360 major companies since 2018, the national security risks posed by refinery closures that supply a significant share of aviation fuel and diesel to military operations in California, Arizona, and Nevada, how the push for renewable energy has become a primary driver of rising energy costs, and the underlying economics of the refining industry. We discuss the broader effects of refinery shutdowns on infrastructure like roads and airports, California’s increasing dependence on foreign oil, the potential for in-state production growth, proposed policy solutions, the risks of state-run refinery models, how Middle Eastern investors are increasingly targeting U.S. real assets and innovation sectors, and more. We greatly appreciate Michael joining and sharing his expertise and insights with us all.
 
Mike Bradley kicked off the discussion by noting that broader U.S. equities surged ~2.0% on Tuesday, largely driven by news that President Trump would be extending the deadline on EU tariff increases from June 1 to July 9. Equity markets also rose due to the unexpectedly high m/m increase in May Consumer Confidence. On the bond market front, 10-year and 30-year U.S. bond yields traded lower by 8-10bps, mostly due to a plunge in Japanese bond yields despite optimistic news on the EU tariff front and Consumer Confidence. In commodities, WTI price pulled back ~$1/bbl (~$61/bbl) on growing concern that OPEC+ will raise July oil production by another ~0.4mmbpd. Iranian nuclear talks underway in Rome have sparked cautious optimism for a breakthrough, which might prove to be another “marginal” headwind for crude prices. On the U.S. policy front, Mike highlighted last week’s passage of a House Tax Bill which surprisingly gutted renewable/solar subsidies and sent solar equities plunging. Passage through the Senate isn’t guaranteed and could potentially extend/reverse the timeline on some of the solar subsidies. On the electricity front, it was a great week for nuclear and SMR equities (handful of SMR equities up ~40%) following four nuclear-focused Executive Orders from the Trump Administration. He also pointed out the recent eye-popping MISO Summer Capacity Auction (~$666/mw) versus last year’s auction price (~$30/mw) which will lead to much higher utility bills. He closed by highlighting California’s current refinery capacity of ~1.6mmbpd and how the two most recent refinery closure announcements (tota