In this episode, Willy interviews Ivy Zelman, whose research, analysis, and advice concerning the housing market have earned her a formidable reputation as an analyst in the field. Willy first asks Ivy how she would choose to invest a million dollars in the housing market. Ivy would take a sort of hybrid approach, investing in assets in Cleveland, OH, as well as in Boise, ID. (1:11-2:40) Willy’s interest in Ivy’s hometown extends into his next question, as he asks her to share her background. She describes how, through her father and her father’s line of work, she learned valuable principles of business savvy and weighing risk. (2:41-4:12) Moving forward, Ivy spent six years working through her undergrad, including working at Arthur Young during the day while she attended school at night. Colleagues recommended that she pursue work on Wall Street rather than in accounting, and she landed at Salomon Brothers in investment banking before eventually transitioning into equity research at the same company. (4:13-7:53) A hard-working analyst who built a strong network and was bold and willing to ask tough questions, Ivy speaks to how she set herself apart in her field. (7:54-10:25) In 2007, she, her husband, and Dennis McGill founded their startup, and Ivy explains the timing of the transition before turning to questions pertaining to the housing market. (10:26-12:50) Continuing their look to the past, Willy and Ivy consider some of Ivy’s housing projections from 2011-2013, which bore out in different ways in the ensuing years. (12:51-15:11) Moving to the present, Willy and Ivy discuss whether circumstances they’ve just discussed from the previous decade are similar or different to circumstances of the COVID-19 pandemic. (15:16-17:29) Ivy addresses the place of FHA loans, single-family credit availability, the COVID-inspired push for space and distance, dynamics of affordability, and rate projections. (17:30-22:28) The two discuss numbers pertaining to single- and multi-family home markets, and work through relevant factors of a decrease in urban living, the need to clear out a multi-family backlog, and questions of foreclosure. (22:29-34:28) Willy then draws attention to two shifts: the shift to remote working and a blue/red state shift. (34:29-43:40) As the conversation moves toward a close, Ivy speaks to current issues surrounding unemployment, risks to builders, and investment in workforce housing. (43:41-57:12)

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