Justin Helps is the science educator behind ⁨Primer Learning with 2M subscribers. We cover how he got into AI safety, debate AGI timelines, and why he calculates p(doom) to be 70% by 2100 😱.

Timestamps

00:00:00 — Cold Open

00:00:38 — Introducing Justin Helps

00:02:03 — What's Your P(Doom)?™

00:03:38 — Justin's First Exposure to AI X-Risk

00:04:49 — Major Disagreements with Eliezer Yudkowsky

00:09:46 — Debating the Timeline to AGI

00:12:24 — Metaculus Prediction Market Estimates AGI by 2032

00:20:06 — Misguided Conceptions of AI's Limitations

00:25:23 — Only a 5% P(Doom) by 2040

00:28:40 — AIs Will Not Care About the Human Species

00:31:00 — Summarizing Justin's Position So Far

00:36:17 — High P(Doom), but We're Not Depressed

00:40:14 — Justin's "Computer Man" Thought Experiment

00:51:16 — Should We Pause AGI Development?

00:54:15 — AI Doom Is a Serious Concern

Links

Primer’s Video on AI Doom — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qg5QXY_qZuI

Primer on YouTube — https://youtube.com/@PrimerBlobs

Primer’s Website — https://primerlearning.org/

Justin Helps on X — https://x.com/Helpsypoo

Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality — https://hpmor.com/

Feeling Rational by Eliezer Yudkowsky —https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SqF8cHjJv43mvJJzx/feeling-rational

Pause AI — https://pauseai.info

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