Keep or Kut

Keep or Kut - Pete (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad (@ChadYoung) do a little mock draft, but with a twist. Rather than drafting to build the best team, this draft is focused on keeper value. In this eight-round draft, players are taken with their current NFBC ADP attached with Chad and Pete trying to identify players who will be good keepers for 2023. The result is a combination of sleepers, breakouts, and other players who we expect to cost a lot more in 2023 than they do in 2022. Draft them now and you'll be thrilled to keep them next year.

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Timestamps:

2:09 - The rules for the draft

5:34 - With the first overall pick, Pete bets on a bounceback from Alex Bregman, whose current ADP may be an overcorrection.

8:34 - Chad looks for a breakout with his first pick, taking Alejandro Kirk and his elite batted balls and solid plate discipline.

10:59 - Fantasy managers seem to be waiting for Jorge Polanco to prove his 2019 and 2021 are legit, but Chad is happy to take him with his second pick.

13:23 - Another MI off the board, as Pete grabs Gleyber Torres (still just 25 years old) with his second pick.

17:35 - More youth for Pete, as he fills first base with Alex Kirilloff, who underperformed his 2022 xStats.

19:57 - Finishing up the third, Chad takes Andrew Vaughn, who was solid if not spectacular despite making the leap from A-ball all the way to MLB.

23:36 - Kirilloff vs. Vaughn: Who ya got?

24:47 - Chad adds some power with Rhys Hoskins, who showed improvement in 2021 and could be primed for a breakout.

29:28 - Will Smith slots in behind the plate for Pete - could he be C1 this year?

34:38 - Pete just can't quit Brendan Rodgers, but there are real reasons for optimism.

38:19 - Fresh off a strong finish (pre-injury), Blake Snell is Chad's pick at SP.

41:17 - Chad finishes off his pitching staff with Ken Giles, who was elite when we last saw him and has a path to saves.

44:47 - Pete goes deep into ADP to take Trevor Larnach. Larnach is risky, but he's also basically free.

49:08 - At the other end of the spectrum, Sandy Alcantara is far from free, but there's still room for him to be a great keeper at this cost.

52:12 - He's been freed from Tropicana Field, but Willy Adames still comes cheap enough that Chad sees a lot of keeper value.

55:28 - Chad's last pick is Alec Bohm, whose 70 grade hit tool is too good to keep performing so poorly.

58:30 - Pete finishes up with Devin Williams, who may not be a closer immediately, but has elite skills and could be a big win for a patient manager.

1:01:44 - LIGHTNING ROUND! Chad and Pete offer quick thoughts on players who weren't taken in the draft, but could have been: Carson Kelly, Chris Taylor, Oneil Cruz, Trent Grisham, Frankie Montas, Camilo Doval, Trey Mancini

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Keep or Kut - Pete (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad (@ChadYoung) continue their analysis of the mock Ottoneu auction that wrapped up on December 10. They covered five teams in the last episode and wrap up with the other seven today. Going team by team, they break down their favorite values, thoughts on overpaid players, and much more. Let your prep for your Ottoneu auctions start here.

Finished mock results: https://www.couchmanagers.com/auctions/?auction_id=5

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Timestamps:

2:57 - Ottoneu creator Niv Shah's OF attracted some attention, with a $25 Eloy Jiménez and a $23 J.D. Martinez.He got some love ($11 Ian Anderson) and some questions ($19 Eduardo Rodriguez) for his rotation, as well. Plus some credit for wisely spending on the positions where the money mattered most.

17:30 - Jake Mailhot of FanGraphs spent $31 on Wander Franco and Chad and Pete were split on how they feel about it. Alejandro Kirk and Tim Anderson also get some discussion on a team that Chad and Pete agrees looks awfully strong.

25:14 - Built buy two long-time Ottoneu players, the Sabrcatz had a plan and executed against it. As a result, they left with a ton of interesting long-term values, with conversations about everyone from Mike Trout and Ronald Acuńa, Jr., to Jo Adell and Joe Ryan, plus a nice bullpen.

32:11 - Ottoneu Slack Admin Mike Maude got some real nice old guy value, but are we still in on Germán Márquez? And is Walker Buehler a legit ace?

40:16 - The man behind the Ottoneu Surplus Calculator, Justin Vibber, got good values at the high end of the spectrum, but can a team with Yordan Alvarez, Giancarlo Stanton, Jacob Degrom, and others overcome a risky rotation?

47:23 - Eno Sarris of The Athletic got an underpriced ace in Charlie Morton, plus some fun values in Trent Grisham, Ian Happ, Tanner Houck, and Raisel Iglesias. Plus find out which SP Eno targeted, and why Chad is intrigued by them, even if he thinks Eno may have overpaid.

54:01 - The finalists in the inaugural Ottoneu Prestige Leauge joined forces to draft the team called Clondoves, and they nabbed one of Pete's favorite sleeper SP in Patrick Sandoval. They also loaded up on buy-lows, putting together a roster that is built well for OPL and includes a number of players we'll be targeting late in auctions.

59:17 - Before wrapping up, we hit on some overall takeaways: first-year auctions vs. established leagues; the importance of auction flow and order; why we are waiting on 1B (but not 3B); and the right balance of spending vs. saving.

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Keep or Kut - Pete (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad (@ChadYoung) begin to dissect the mock Ottoneu auction that wrapped up on December 10. Going team by team, they break down their favorite values, thoughts on overpaid players, and much more. Let your prep for your Ottoneu auctions start here.

Finished mock results: https://www.couchmanagers.com/auctions/?auction_id=5

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Timestamps:

6:55 - The breakdown begins with Chad's team. Potential outfield woes, a deep dive on Alex Wood and Oneil Cruz, and a discussion about what to expect from Jeff McNeil.

28:02 - Analysis of Pete's team includes a discussion about Triston McKenzie and several prospects bought at bargain prices. Is $10 an ideal amount of money to be left with post-auction? And Pete plants his flag on DJ LeMahieu... he's all in.

45:52 - Friend of the show Mark McElroy's team. Is outfield sneaky thin? A conversation about the risk on a $32 George Springer unfolds and is followed up by a praising of a $17 Rhys Hoskins and $3 Trey Mancini.

58:28 - Adam Howe's team! Pete loves Alek Manoah, especially at $15. Is the floor of this bench too low? Chad is on the fence about Tyler O'Neill as a player but he loves the price that Adam got him at. Whit Merrifield isn't much of an Ottoneu points league player.

1:09:58 - Dave Swan's team... $52 leftover! Dave had an awesome, cheap middle infield headlined by Willy Adames, Kolten Wong, and Jonathan Schoop (total of those three: $19). What do we do with a $10 Tyler Glasnow?

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Keep or Kut - Pete (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad (@ChadYoung) dig deep on the Ottoneu mock auction that is currently taking place. Third base once again becomes a point of discussion, as does the seemingly top-heavy nature of the mock itself. Eventually, Pete and Chad get into a discussion about some of the early signings this offseason and their potential fantasy impacts.

Follow the mock here!: https://www.couchmanagers.com/auctions/?auction_id=5

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Timestamps:

1:10 - The best Thanksgiving side

4:40 - Introduction to the mock auction draft and how it has gone so far

12:03 - Pete's rationale for dropping so much money on Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

13:59 - A discussion about Mike Trout - he went for over $60!

20:42 - Nolan Arenado for $18. A steal? A fair deal? Overpay? A discussion about 3B follows, including how Pete ended up with both Austin Riley and Manny Machado.

34:30 - Surprising prices on starting pitchers and how the bidding for pitchers has gone in the mock so far. Is a $38 Max Scherzer good value?

36:22 - Are we sleeping on Shane Bieber?

40:08 - $4 Marcus Stroman is a steal

44:03 - Justin Verlander is back with the Astros

49:51 - Steven Matz to the Cardinals. Does it matter?

52:21 - Anthony DeSclafani is back with the Giants. Was the breakout legit? Does losing Buster Posey matter?

56:25 - Noah Syndergaard goes west, off to the Angels. Seems risky, should we be interested?

1:02:05 - Another Angels signing! Aaron Loup... future closer?

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Keep or Kut - Pete (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad (@ChadYoung) talk a bit about how they plan their rosters for the off-season, dive into position scarcity, and look at some big names who might be on the move this off-season. Come for the complaining about the lack of 3B depth, stay for the complaining about the dearth of catchers.

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Timestamps:

1:03 - Pete's thoughts on his first go at Ottoneu Arbitration

4:17 - How do you tactically get started with roster planning?

8:57 - Using the Ottoneu Roster Organizer or setting a depth chart on a spreadsheet

12:30 - Third base is not pretty

20:10 - How aggressively should you trade to fill a weak position in the offseason?

26:06 - You thought 3B was bad? Check out 2B and C!

36:07 - Some big names are going to be changing homes and we take a look at a few, starting with Corey Seager (and Chris Taylor)

42:53 - Next up is Javy Baez

47:04 - Our first trade candidate is Matt Olson (and maybe Matt Chapman)

54:00 - We finish up with Kyle Schwarber

57:23 - Ottoneu Question of the Day: With catcher being so thin and Ottoneu being so deep, if you are in trouble at C and another team is deep, how do you approach that?

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Keep or Kut - Chad (@chadyoung) is joined by Mark McElroy (@markmcelroybb), commissioner of the Pitcher List staff Ottoneu league, to discuss arbitration. They talk about why arbitration exists, how it works, and how you should think about arbitration for your league. Plus, they walk through live examples, as Mark discusses how he would allocate to one of Chad's teams, and Chad does the same for one of Mark's.

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Timestamps:

5:29 - The quirks of Mark and Chad's home leagues

10:34 - The basics of Ottoneu arbitration, including why it exists and how it works

17:04 - Before allocating money, look at teams (including your own), not players

31:24 - Once you know what teams you want to allocate to, it is time to look at which players are the best targets

39:40 - Should you allocate dollars to prospects?

44:36 - Does it make sense to allocate money to high-priced guys in order to force another manager to cut the player?

50:00 - Arb runs for a month, so when is the right time to do it?

53:28 - Is it fair game to discuss arbitration with other members of your league?

57:05 - Mark looks at the Hawken Hawks, Chad's team in league 13, and discusses his arbitration strategy

1:03:55 - Chad returns the favor, discussing his strategy for allocating to the Kram Fighters, Mark's team in league 1122.

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Keep or Kut - Last week, Pete (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad (@ChadYoung) jumped into a way-too-early Pitcher List mock draft for the 2022 season. In this episode, they are joined by two of the other draft participants - Scott Chu (@ifthechufits) and Christopher Weber (@shwebsi) - to talk about potential high-value keepers. By comparing 2021 ADP to where players were taken in the mock draft, Chad, Pete, Scott, and Shwebsi countdown the top 10 keeper values, and tease some late selections who could be exciting keepers next year.

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Timestamps:

3:08 - Scott and Shwebsi tell us a bit about their favorite keeper leagues, including a contract-based pair of AL- and NL-only, and a team named Howard the Duck

9:35 - High-level thoughts on the draft we just finished, including the folly of drafting in October.

14:41 - We dive into our top ten countdown of the players with the greatest difference between their 2021 ADP and their pick in this draft, starting with Freddy Peralta.

20:57 - After making huge strides in 2021, Dylan Cease checks in at number nine.

25:46 - Jorge Polanco may not repeat his 2021, but that won't stop him from being number eight on our list, and a great keeper.

31:57 - With first-round production this year, Cedric Mullins is a clear keeper in any format.

38:14 - It's a full-on lovefest for number six Wander Franco.

45:28 - Chad takes a victory lap as we discuss number five Austin Riley.

52:06 - Number four Robbie Ray and the amazing ability to just decide to be better.

56:51 - There were two Shohei Ohtani's in this draft, but only one made it to number three on our list.

1:02:46 - Tyler O'Neill demonstrates the challenges of drafting this early in the off-season.

1:09:12 - Despite the rough pre-season, no one rose further from 2021 to this draft than Chris Sale

1:17:11 - Six guys who went after pick 200 in the draft that we think could be keepers in 2023

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Keep or Kut - After Pete (@PeteBBaseball) went solo last week to talk about his 2021 takeaways, this weekend you get a special bonus episode of Keep or Kut, as Chad (@ChadYoung) rolls solo to give you his takeaways.

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Timestamps:

3:42 - Chad looks back at Pete's takeaways and shares his thoughts

12:17 - Chad starts his takeaways by talking about the importance of knowing your style and sticking to it.

21:14 - Expecting too much from Dominic Smith didn't sink Chad; but assuming he could rely on elite production rather than viewing that as upside was a problem. Don't be overly reliant on your guys.

28:29 - Don't be afraid to make a big move. Even if that means trading a long-term keeper like Mookie Betts.

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Keep or Kut - Pete (@PeteBBaseball) is without Chad (@ChadYoung) for this short episode as he discusses his fantasy baseball takeaways from the 2021 season.

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Timestamps:

1:59 - Maybe time to stop putting such little attention on the catcher position

6:11 - The idea of getting a draft discount on a player because he is injured is tantalizing but recent setbacks have Pete thinking twice about drafting injured players

10:15 - Reaching for prospects or paying too much FAAB for them lowers the floor of your roster and for most people, especially the last two years, this strategy isn't working

15:26 - Stolen bases are at an all-time low. Pete's thinking about just not focusing on them at all in his 2022 drafts.

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Pete (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad (@ChadYoung) try to figure out what went wrong for some players who we thought were fantasy studs going into the season. They also discuss how much strength of schedule should be considered, particularly for starting pitchers, when constructing your roster.

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Timestamps:

0:25 - DOGS!

4:03 - Trying to figure out Aaron Nola and his odd GB%

16:58 - Will the Dodgers trade Cody Bellinger? What is going on with him?

25:05 - Christian Yelich… selling out for contact now?

35:15 - Trent Grisham’s season has not gone to plan after a hot start

40:16 - Giovanny Gallegos is really good and Pete just wants you to know that

41:40 - Should any weight be put into September, particularly late September, strength of schedule when constructing your roster?

57:00 - OQOTD: Who is a good player to buy low on now to avoid the potential of the market picking up on them by auction time?

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