Pete Ball (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad Young (@ChadYoung) discuss the first week of the season and take a particular look at a handful of players who have gotten off to hot starts and may provide some long-term fantasy value. They also discuss what statistics to lean on this early in the year and how, if at all, the early data we have matters.

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Timestamps:

Episode 10 Early Season Reactions

0:00 - ... baseball is back!

7:15 - Chad breaks down the keys to analyzing tiny samples at the beginning of the season. He also takes a look at the high number of max exit velocities that are being set for players already this season.

12:15 - The hot-ish start of Willi Castro... at least in relation to max exit velocity!

17:30 - Is Jonathan India for real? Or, should we actually consider selling on this former 5th overall pick already?

26:51 - Jake Cronenworth... unleashed! The Padres everyday 2B is continuing where he left off last year.

34:15 - Jazz Chisholm is showing very early signs of perhaps better plate discipline and may be a 2B to target and hold on to in keeper formats

41:55 - You guessed it, Pete talks about Tanner Houck

46:57 - For deeper leagues, Garrett Whitlock's hot start is certainly something to monitor, particularly if he finds his way into the Red Sox rotation

52:10 - Steven Matz... the keeper? Maybe not in shallower leagues. But in leagues where there is a price attached to keepers, Matz could play himself into some value.

58:22 - Ottoneu Question of the Day - when you know you are going to cut a mega stud before next season's auction because of their cost, is it better to move them during the season or to ride them out?

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Pete Ball (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad Young (@ChadYoung) are joined by Alex Fast (@AlexFast8) to talk starting pitching. Alex, Chad and Pete talk about how to use CSW to find pitching and discuss Randy Dobnak, Aaron Civale, Patrick Corbin, Nate Pearson, Justin Dunn, Trevor Rogers, Daulton Jefferies, Freddy Peralta, Logan Webb, and more.

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Timestamps:

Episode 9 Pitchers with Alex Fast

1:30 - The details on Alex Fast's keeper league

4:36 - Pete shares why he thinks it's so crucial to focus on pitching (even if Chad always wants to wait)

10:30 - Alex breaks down CSW (Called Strikes + Whiffs) and how it can help you find SP

16:43 - What if the CSW looks good but the results aren't following?

21:57 - High CS with low W, the need for a put-away pitch, and potential breakouts thanks to new pitches

28:10 - What to look for in pitching prospects

35:44 - Pete's puts Alex (and Chad) on the spot to rate five SP going late or on the wire: Trevor Rogers, Daulton Jefferies, Justin Dunn, Freddy Peralta and Logan Webb

56:21- Alex's early-season watchlist

59:39 - The Ottoneu Question of the Day - In Ottoneu Head-to-Head leagues, where there is a cap on SP games started each week, is a quantity-over-quality approach to SP viable?

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Pete Ball (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad Young (@ChadYoung) recently participated in their Fangraphs Staff Ottoneu league auction. They go over how they approached the auction, what they planned to do going into it, and how it actually went down.

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Timestamps:

Episode 8 Ottoneu Auction Recap

2:10 - Pitching being pushed up drafts and more expensive in auctions this season

14:28 - Pete's first impressions of Ottoneu, breakdown of the auction begins

23:05 - Is Patrick Corbin washed or is he a steal?

29:28 - Pete's approach to the auction and how it went down for him

34:00 - Josh Lindblom, A.J. Puk, and the benefit of long-relievers in Ottoneu points leagues

41:40 - Chad views Ottoneu auctions similar to MLB free agency and explains why

43:00 - Chad breaks down what his initial plan for the auction was and how he had to adjust and focus on his plan B.

49:50 - If you are the tone-setter who nominates the first player in an auction, what is your approach?

1:00:16 - The guys get deep into breaking down Shohei Ohtani's value

1:06:05 - The Ottoneu Question of the Day - is age overvalued in Ottoneu formats?

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Ten listeners joined Pete Ball (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad Young (@ChadYoung) for a 23-round, 12-team mock draft built on the assumption that each team would have 10 keepers for 2022. While there are dynasty rankings out there and plenty of redraft ADP data, keeper drafts have their own feel, and in this week's episode, Pete and Chad break down this mock and talk about all the strategies employed, from focusing on 2021 to an almost pure-dynasty style draft by one manager. Get thoughts on when to reach, who to reach for, and how to draft based on what the rest of your league is doing.

In the Ottoneu Question of the Day, Pete pushes Chad on one of the more unique scoring categories in Ottoneu - HR/9 in Ottoneu Classic 4x4 scoring.

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Timestamps:

Episode 7 mock draft

0:29 - Rules of the draft

3:12 - Pete picking from the first spot

11:39 - Dan picking second

16:28 - Chad’s team from the 3 hole

25:18 - Jason picking fourth

33:37 - Astraea with the 5th

41:05 - Michael drafting 6th

46:50 - Picking 7th is Chris

51:10 - Seth with the 8th

55:41 - Matt picks 9th

1:00:50 - John tries to beat his brother from the 10 spot

1:07:40 - Drafting 11th is Geoff

Pete Ball (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad Young (@ChadYoung) are joined by Adam Howe (@eightygrade) of the On the Wire Podcast, to answer some listener questions. With Opening Day around the corner, keeper decisions are looming. We answer questions from five listeners - and one from Adam! Along the way, we cover everything from balancing pitching vs. hitting and when it is or isn't okay to punt a category to unique keeper rules and sunk costs. Plus, in the Ottoneu Question of the Day, Chad offers one piece of advice for those prepping for Ottoneu auctions.

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Timestamps:

4:04 - Every keeper league has its own unique rules and structure

7:08 - From DrewSkis86 on the PL+ Discord: $5 Josh Rojas, $5 Nico Hoerner, or $1 Brendan Rodgers? Plus a special appearance from Ty France!

15:20 - From Sean on the Ottoneu Slack: When does it make sense to cut a guy you like, hoping to get him back for a better price?

21:19 - Adam asks us which six guys to cut from his 27-man dynasty roster. We debate Sam Hilliard vs. Daulton Varsho, talk about Robbie Ray and sunk costs, and discuss the strategy involved with keeping April saves vs. long-term upside.

42:45 - From listener Ian: Stephen Strasburg, Giancarlo Stanton, or Jose Altuve? How do league depth and league behavior change your thinking on prioritizing hitting vs. pitching?

49:06 - From Lere on PL+ Discord: Which eight should be kept in a 10-team, 6x6 H2H? Does Max Scherzer's age make him less interesting than younger players with more upside? Starling Marte vs. Austin Meadows? Plus, does 6x6 make it easier to punt a category?

57:55 - From listener Josh: Which four guys he should keep, considering the costs in draft picks and FAAB dollars? Do you give up FAAB for Tyler Glasnow or take the cheaper Nate Pearson or Tarik Skubal? Plus Adam gives us some advice on planning for FAAB.

1:10:34 - The Ottoneu Question of the Day - What is the one piece of advice for someone entering their first Ottoneu auction?

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Pete Ball (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad Young (@ChadYoung) go deep, looking at players outside the top 300 or going for <$3 in Ottoneu auctions who you could target as keepers for the future. Late in drafts and auctions, you can take some risks and go after players who have a shot to make your 2022 keeper list, and there are some great options going after 300 or in dollar days. We cover, two IF, two OF, two SP, and two RP. Plus we talk Framber Valdez in the Ottoneu Question of the Day!

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Timestamps:

Infield

Outfield

Starting Pitcher

Relief Pitcher

39:45 - Ottoneu Question of the Day - What do you do with Framber Valdez?

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Pete Ball (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad Young (@ChadYoung) go tier by tier in NFBC ADPs to try and figure out which players are most likely to make a significant jump from 2021 into 2022. Is Kyle Tucker the most likely player with an ADP over 25 to enter next year's Top 10? Or, is it Luis Robert? Listen to find out the answer to those questions, and more!

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Timestamps:

3:02 - Luis Robert - Chad's pick to have the best chance at entering the top 10 in ADP next year

6:50 - Kyle Tucker - Pete's choice! And, his first of three Astros. But, again, not an Astros fan.

9:38 - Austin Meadows - Is Meadows being drafted too late? Chad sees him as a potential top 25 pick next year.

15:33 - Yordan Álvarez - Houston Astro #2... and a future top 25 pick?

26:05 - Victor Robles - Chad makes the case that Robles could go in Starling Marte territory next year as a top 50 pick.

36:38 - Carlos Correa - Pete picks another Astro. Shocker.

42:57 - Chris Sale... or Noah Syndergaard... or Luis Severino - Chad picks Sale while he and Pete go over the clear benefits of stashing one of these guys and enjoying the inevitable boost in ADP that is to come.

51:36 - Nick Senzel - a non-Astro! Pete likes Senzel.

52:35 - Ottoneu Question of the Day - How long should rebuilding take? What are the approaches to a rebuild?

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Pete Ball (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad Young (@ChadYoung) tweeted out their 5x5 keeper league top ten lists for each position and in this episode, they dig into each other's rankings. Why is Chad higher on Nolan Arenado? Why is Pete all in on Christian Yelich? Why did Chad wait until the 42nd round to draft a C in a recent dynasty draft? And, of course, Pete asks the Ottoneu Question of the Day.

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Timestamps:

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Pete Ball (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad Young (@ChadYoung) examine draft strategies for keeper leagues and all the different components you must keep in mind when preparing for your keeper league’s draft. They then dive into some player comparisons where Chad poses different sets of players, paired by position, and asks Pete which of the two players he prefers in a keeper setting. Players such as Paul Goldschmidt, Patrick Corbin, Gavin Lux, Marcus Semien, and more are all discussed. Finally, it wouldn’t be the Keep or Kut podcast without the Ottoneu Question of the Day!

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Timestamps:

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Pete Ball (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad Young (@ChadYoung) kick off the Keep or Kut podcast by discussing categories of players who have extra value when you can keep them at a low cost. What underhyped breakouts are worth tracking? Whose Ottoneu salaries haven't caught up to their value yet? What players have made changes to stance or approach that suggest their breakouts are real? We talk Anthony Santander, Dominic Smith, Wil Myers, Tanner Houck, and more.

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Timestamps:

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