Keep or Kut

By Chad Young, Pete BallSports Fantasy Sports

Keep or Kut episodes

April 26, 2021 K ꓘ 12: Mailbag!
Pete Ball (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad Young (@ChadYoung) took to Twitter and Slack for questions about specific players in the early going. Most of the players are off to horrific starts which led to some interesting conversation from Pete and Chad.
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Timestamps
1:00 - Akil Baddoo is striking out a ton. Can he keep up his hot start despite the Ks?
7:58 - Drop Baddoo for Jesse Winker? Bryan Reynolds? Even... Andrew Benintendi?
13:30 - Patrick Corbin and his bounce back start
16:32 - José Quintana is rostered?
20:03 - It has been quite the up and down start to the season for highly drafted Zach Plesac
25:03 - Another pitcher experiencing an up and down season is Frankie Montas
29:11 - What is going on with Kenta Maeda?
35:19 - Huascar Ynoa: over/under 15.5 GS this season
42:50 - Are we about to witness MacKenzie Gore?
46:16 - Ottoneu Question fo the Day! How do we deal with double headers in year-long leagues?

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58 min
April 19, 2021K ꓘ 11: Revisiting Early Season Performances
Pete Ball (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad Young (@ChadYoung) look back at some of the guys they have talked about now that we are a couple of weeks into the season. It's too early for victory laps, but it is not too early to start looking at what is going right, what is going wrong, and how you might improve your team. Chad and Pete kick around some possible adds and drops and cover a whole bunch of $3 or less Ottoneu players who are producing.
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Timestamps
3:01 - Injuries and postponements can leave you struggling to fill a lineup, and the confusion around COVID IL stays continues to make this more complicated
10:21 - Looking at the starts from four pitchers we discussed on previous episodes: Patrick Corbin, Casey Mize, Luke Weaver, and Freddy Peralta.
23:21 - And some hitters we previously discussed, as well: Marcus Semien, Paul Goldschmidt, and Anthony Santander
31:55 - Chad puts Pete on the spot - would you drop these widely-drafted players for early season darlings:
Drop Clint Frazier to add Cedric Mullins?
Ditch C.J. Cron to add Jeimer Candelario?
Bail on Keston Hiura for Jazz Chisholm?
Move on from Marco Gonzales to make room for Anthony DeSclafini?
42:23 - Ottoneu Question of the Day: Who are some players that cost $3 or less who have been great value so far - and will it continue?
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53 min
April 12, 2021 K ꓘ 10: Early Season Reactions
Pete Ball (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad Young (@ChadYoung) discuss the first week of the season and take a particular look at a handful of players who have gotten off to hot starts and may provide some long-term fantasy value. They also discuss what statistics to lean on this early in the year and how, if at all, the early data we have matters.
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Timestamps:
Episode 10 Early Season Reactions
0:00 - ... baseball is back!
7:15 - Chad breaks down the keys to analyzing tiny samples at the beginning of the season. He also takes a look at the high number of max exit velocities that are being set for players already this season.
12:15 - The hot-ish start of Willi Castro... at least in relation to max exit velocity!
17:30 - Is Jonathan India for real? Or, should we actually consider selling on this former 5th overall pick already?
26:51 - Jake Cronenworth... unleashed! The Padres everyday 2B is continuing where he left off last year.
34:15 - Jazz Chisholm is showing very early signs of perhaps better plate discipline and may be a 2B to target and hold on to in keeper formats
41:55 - You guessed it, Pete talks about Tanner Houck
46:57 - For deeper leagues, Garrett Whitlock's hot start is certainly something to monitor, particularly if he finds his way into the Red Sox rotation
52:10 - Steven Matz... the keeper? Maybe not in shallower leagues. But in leagues where there is a price attached to keepers, Matz could play himself into some value.
58:22 - Ottoneu Question of the Day - when you know you are going to cut a mega stud before next season's auction because of their cost, is it better to move them during the season or to ride them out?
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1 hr 6 min
April 05, 2021 K ꓘ 9: Pitchers with Alex Fast
Pete Ball (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad Young (@ChadYoung) are joined by Alex Fast (@AlexFast8) to talk starting pitching. Alex, Chad and Pete talk about how to use CSW to find pitching and discuss Randy Dobnak, Aaron Civale, Patrick Corbin, Nate Pearson, Justin Dunn, Trevor Rogers, Daulton Jefferies, Freddy Peralta, Logan Webb, and more.
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Timestamps:
Episode 9 Pitchers with Alex Fast
1:30 - The details on Alex Fast's keeper league
4:36 - Pete shares why he thinks it's so crucial to focus on pitching (even if Chad always wants to wait)
10:30 - Alex breaks down CSW (Called Strikes + Whiffs) and how it can help you find SP
16:43 - What if the CSW looks good but the results aren't following?
21:57 - High CS with low W, the need for a put-away pitch, and potential breakouts thanks to new pitches
28:10 - What to look for in pitching prospects
35:44 - Pete's puts Alex (and Chad) on the spot to rate five SP going late or on the wire: Trevor Rogers, Daulton Jefferies, Justin Dunn, Freddy Peralta and Logan Webb
56:21- Alex's early-season watchlist
59:39 - The Ottoneu Question of the Day - In Ottoneu Head-to-Head leagues, where there is a cap on SP games started each week, is a quantity-over-quality approach to SP viable?

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1 hr 9 min
March 29, 2021K ꓘ 8: Ottoneu Auction Recap
Pete Ball (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad Young (@ChadYoung) recently participated in their Fangraphs Staff Ottoneu league auction. They go over how they approached the auction, what they planned to do going into it, and how it actually went down.
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Timestamps:
Episode 8 Ottoneu Auction Recap
2:10 - Pitching being pushed up drafts and more expensive in auctions this season
Chad goes the pro-wait-on-pitching path, Pete thinks you should hop on pitching early.
14:28 - Pete's first impressions of Ottoneu, breakdown of the auction begins
Clayton Kershaw went for just $22! Max Scherzer goes for $41! And Pete and Chad think Carlos Carrasco may have been a steal at $11.
23:05 - Is Patrick Corbin washed or is he a steal?
29:28 - Pete's approach to the auction and how it went down for him
34:00 - Josh Lindblom, A.J. Puk, and the benefit of long-relievers in Ottoneu points leagues
41:40 - Chad views Ottoneu auctions similar to MLB free agency and explains why
43:00 - Chad breaks down what his initial plan for the auction was and how he had to adjust and focus on his plan B.
49:50 - If you are the tone-setter who nominates the first player in an auction, what is your approach?
1:00:16 - The guys get deep into breaking down Shohei Ohtani's value
1:06:05 - The Ottoneu Question of the Day - is age overvalued in Ottoneu formats?

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1 hr 17 min
March 22, 2021K ꓘ 7: Mocking a Keeper Draft
Ten listeners joined Pete Ball (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad Young (@ChadYoung) for a 23-round, 12-team mock draft built on the assumption that each team would have 10 keepers for 2022. While there are dynasty rankings out there and plenty of redraft ADP data, keeper drafts have their own feel, and in this week's episode, Pete and Chad break down this mock and talk about all the strategies employed, from focusing on 2021 to an almost pure-dynasty style draft by one manager. Get thoughts on when to reach, who to reach for, and how to draft based on what the rest of your league is doing.
In the Ottoneu Question of the Day, Pete pushes Chad on one of the more unique scoring categories in Ottoneu - HR/9 in Ottoneu Classic 4x4 scoring.
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Timestamps:
Episode 7 mock draft

0:29 - Rules of the draft
3:12 - Pete picking from the first spot
Strategizing at the turn, Andrew Vaughn's limited track record, plus thoughts on Trevor Bauer, Salvador Perez and Xander Bogaerts.
11:39 - Dan picking second
Clayton Kershaw over Corbin Burnes, grabbing a late Marcus Semien, and drafting for 2021 while letting the keepers come when they come
16:28 - Chad’s team from the 3 hole
Reaching for your guys, the long-term upside of Devin Williams, betting on the Chris Sale path for Garrett Crochet, wasting a pick on saves that don't help, plus drafting Adalberto Mondesi even if you aren't a believer.
25:18 - Jason picking fourth
Gambling on Marco Luciano in the 23rd, waiting on SS and reaching for C, the importance of where you draft this year and next
33:37 - Astraea with the 5th
Going Christian Yelich over Mike Trout, jumping the queue to take J.T. Realmuto, the limited keeper value offered closers, and solving the stats you struggle with early
41:05 - Michael drafting 6th
Building for 2022, reaching for Wander Franco and Jarred Kelenic, tripling up on TJ aces, and staying strategic through to the end
46:50 - Picking 7th is Chris
Committing to a plan to win now or play for the future, getting the old guy value from stone-cold vets
51:10 - Seth with the 8th
How to draft prospects in a keeper with appearances from Gavin Lux, Jo Adell, and other; plus looking at a draft that appeared to go to plan through 8 rounds
55:41 - Matt picks 9th
Stashing injured pitchers as a strategy in keeper leagues, and our ranking of the TJ pitchers (Mike Clevinger, Justin Verlander, Luis Severino, Chris Sale, Noah Syndergaard) vs. top pitching prospects
1:00:50 - John tries to beat his brother from the 10 spot
Tripling up on elite closers and just how many innings will you be able to get out of Walker Buehler
1:07:40 - Drafting 11th is Geoff
Jesus Luzard and the boring rotation, the value of non-closer

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1 hr 28 min
March 15, 2021 K ꓘ 6: Keeper Decision Mailbag
Pete Ball (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad Young (@ChadYoung) are joined by Adam Howe (@eightygrade) of the On the Wire Podcast, to answer some listener questions. With Opening Day around the corner, keeper decisions are looming. We answer questions from five listeners - and one from Adam! Along the way, we cover everything from balancing pitching vs. hitting and when it is or isn't okay to punt a category to unique keeper rules and sunk costs. Plus, in the Ottoneu Question of the Day, Chad offers one piece of advice for those prepping for Ottoneu auctions.
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Timestamps:
4:04 - Every keeper league has its own unique rules and structure
7:08 - From DrewSkis86 on the PL+ Discord: $5 Josh Rojas, $5 Nico Hoerner, or $1 Brendan Rodgers? Plus a special appearance from Ty France!
15:20 - From Sean on the Ottoneu Slack: When does it make sense to cut a guy you like, hoping to get him back for a better price?
21:19 - Adam asks us which six guys to cut from his 27-man dynasty roster. We debate Sam Hilliard vs. Daulton Varsho, talk about Robbie Ray and sunk costs, and discuss the strategy involved with keeping April saves vs. long-term upside.
42:45 - From listener Ian: Stephen Strasburg, Giancarlo Stanton, or Jose Altuve? How do league depth and league behavior change your thinking on prioritizing hitting vs. pitching?
49:06 - From Lere on PL+ Discord: Which eight should be kept in a 10-team, 6x6 H2H? Does Max Scherzer's age make him less interesting than younger players with more upside? Starling Marte vs. Austin Meadows? Plus, does 6x6 make it easier to punt a category?
57:55 - From listener Josh: Which four guys he should keep, considering the costs in draft picks and FAAB dollars? Do you give up FAAB for Tyler Glasnow or take the cheaper Nate Pearson or Tarik Skubal? Plus Adam gives us some advice on planning for FAAB.
1:10:34 - The Ottoneu Question of the Day - What is the one piece of advice for someone entering their first Ottoneu auction?
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1 hr 19 min
March 14, 2021K ꓘ 5: Potential Late Keepers
Pete Ball (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad Young (@ChadYoung) go deep, looking at players outside the top 300 or going for <$3 in Ottoneu auctions who you could target as keepers for the future. Late in drafts and auctions, you can take some risks and go after players who have a shot to make your 2022 keeper list, and there are some great options going after 300 or in dollar days. We cover, two IF, two OF, two SP, and two RP. Plus we talk Framber Valdez in the Ottoneu Question of the Day!
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Timestamps:
Infield
4:10 - Pete tells you it is time to buy into Brendan Rodgers
10:38 - Rowdy Tellez and his Statcast sliders impress Chad
Outfield
13:03 - Sam Hilliard is the second Rockie Pete thinks you should draft late
19:18 - Austin Hays killed it for most of 2020 and Chad isn't sure if everyone noticed
Starting Pitcher
22:48 - Pete wonders if Luke Weaver can find his slider
28:36 - For about $2, Chad thinks Ryan Yarbrough is well worth the price
Relief Pitcher
31:51 - He may not have the job today, but Pete is buying saves from Yimi Garcia
35:27 - If you thought the Weaver recommendation was tepid, wait til you hear Chad talk about Josh Staumont
39:45 - Ottoneu Question of the Day - What do you do with Framber Valdez?
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49 min
March 08, 2021K ꓘ 4: ADP Tier Jumpers
Pete Ball (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad Young (@ChadYoung) go tier by tier in NFBC ADPs to try and figure out which players are most likely to make a significant jump from 2021 into 2022. Is Kyle Tucker the most likely player with an ADP over 25 to enter next year's Top 10? Or, is it Luis Robert? Listen to find out the answer to those questions, and more!
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Timestamps:
3:02 - Luis Robert - Chad's pick to have the best chance at entering the top 10 in ADP next year
6:50 - Kyle Tucker - Pete's choice! And, his first of three Astros. But, again, not an Astros fan.
9:38 - Austin Meadows - Is Meadows being drafted too late? Chad sees him as a potential top 25 pick next year.
15:33 - Yordan Álvarez - Houston Astro #2... and a future top 25 pick?
20:32 - Pete and Chad rank the DH's: JD Martinez, Giancarlo Stanton, Nelson Cruz, and Álvarez.
26:05 - Victor Robles - Chad makes the case that Robles could go in Starling Marte territory next year as a top 50 pick.
36:38 - Carlos Correa - Pete picks another Astro. Shocker.
42:57 - Chris Sale... or Noah Syndergaard... or Luis Severino - Chad picks Sale while he and Pete go over the clear benefits of stashing one of these guys and enjoying the inevitable boost in ADP that is to come.
51:36 - Nick Senzel - a non-Astro! Pete likes Senzel.
52:35 - Ottoneu Question of the Day - How long should rebuilding take? What are the approaches to a rebuild?
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1 hr 4 min
March 01, 2021K ꓘ 3: Debating the Top Tens
Pete Ball (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad Young (@ChadYoung) tweeted out their 5x5 keeper league top ten lists for each position and in this episode, they dig into each other's rankings. Why is Chad higher on Nolan Arenado? Why is Pete all in on Christian Yelich? Why did Chad wait until the 42nd round to draft a C in a recent dynasty draft? And, of course, Pete asks the Ottoneu Question of the Day.
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Timestamps:
1:12 - Top Ten Catchers
2:28 - Don't give up on Gary Sanchez
10:28 - Top Ten 1B
11:06 - Cody Bellinger vs Freddie Freeman
14:33 - The possibly elite keeper value of Vlad Guerrero, Jr.
18:29 - Top Ten 2B
19:05 - The Nick Madrigal Debate
24:26 - Top Ten SS
25:12 - One of us is high on Xander Bogaerts, and it isn't the Boston fan
28:09 - Adalberto Mondesi - draft his ceiling or fade his floor?
33:51 - Top Ten 3B
34:33 - Nolan Arenado, now with 100% less Coors
37:47 - Boston fandom strikes back: Rafael Devers
42:41 - The pros and cons of Yoan Moncada
45:52 - Top Ten OF
46:18 - The impossible task of ranking the top three
47:57 - 2020 Never Happened: The Christian Yelich Story
50:31 - Top Ten SP
54:22 - The Top Ten RP
57:26 - The Ottoneu Question of the Day - What is your approach to the auction when you don't have much money to spend?
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1 hr 5 min

About Keep or Kut

From the publisher's feed

The best fantasy baseball leagues don't end when the season ends. Join Chad Young and Pete Ball of Pitcher List as they dive into the world of keeper and Ottoneu leagues. Tips and advice, analysis and…