Knowledge at Wharton

Interest rates are rising around the world. Last Thursday April 13 the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes closed at 5.05%. This was the first time in four years that the yield exceeded 5%. Moreover short-term interest rates in the U.S. are also going up: The federal funds rate (or the interest rate at which banks provide overnight loans to one another) has risen to 4.75% from some 1% a few years ago. In Europe and Japan stock prices have been falling last week and this week because of concerns that rising interest rates and higher oil prices will affect corporate earnings. What will this mean for the U.S. stock market and the economy? To answer this question Robbie Shell editorial director of Knowledge at Wharton and Mukul Pandya editor-in-chief talked with Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel author of the book The Future for Investors.

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Foreign stocks are soaring and Americans are pouring money into them. But although overseas equities have captured investors’ fancy before there’s a twist this time: More investors are embracing passive index-style investing ignoring the long-held belief that active managers can beat indexers by uncovering bargains in inefficient foreign markets. Have conditions really changed enough to make indexing pay off as well in foreign markets as it has in the U.S.? It may be too soon to know for sure. But international equity markets and American investor behavior are clearly evolving according to Wharton finance professors.

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When General Motors last month offered buyouts and early retirement packages to 113 000 hourly workers the move focused new attention on a key aspect of the continually evolving relationship between employers and employees. Buyouts often signal management’s decision to strategically change the company’s direction and start easing out those workers who are part of what is now considered the old regime. Meanwhile employees who stay behind suddenly recognize that they are replaceable parts with little job security and no long-term commitment from the company. What messages do buyouts send to employees? How are buyouts structured? Is there a ’right’ way and a ’wrong’ way to handle the buyout process?

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Corporate leaders must build international organizations to compete in today’s economy and be prepared to defend globalization at home according to Klaus Kleinfeld chief executive of the German electrical and engineering conglomerate Siemens AG. Speaking at a recent Wharton Leadership Lecture Kleinfeld said U.S. concerns about the sale of port assets to a Dubai-based firm and French resistance to the sale of yogurt-maker Danone -- which French officials called a ”national treasure” -- highlight growing fears that globalization comes at the cost of jobs in developed countries. He also addressed the need for labor unions to be more flexible offshoring concerns the benefits of conglomerates and the qualities he looks for in potential leaders.

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Consumers’ love affair with expensive customized cups of coffee shows no signs of abating even though most orders consist of little more than a cup of water a splash of milk a spoonful of coffee grinds and 30 seconds of labor. Indeed Starbucks has managed to turn its customers’ craving for caffeine into a $6.4 billion a year business with close to 6 000 company-owned coffeehouses already up and running and five new ones opening each day. All of which explains why so many coffee sellers seem intent on taking away some of Starbucks’ highly profitable market share. Yet according to Wharton marketing professors some companies are so obsessed with swiping business from Starbucks or losing customers to it that they may be abandoning a niche that has already proved profitable.

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The phrase ”free shipping” is like a siren song to many who shop on the Internet. For whatever reason a free shipping offer that saves a customer $6.99 is more appealing to many than a discount that cuts the purchase price by $10 says Wharton marketing professor David Bell. Bell noticed this phenomenon a few years ago while doing research for an online grocery store and the observation prompted him to look more closely at the ways Internet retailers use shipping charges -- or the lack thereof -- as a promotional tool. The result is a recent paper titled ”Free Shipping and Repeat Buying on the Internet: Theory and Evidence ” by Bell and colleagues Skander Essegaier from Koc University and Yinghui Yang from the University of California at Davis.

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In the second of a two-part interview Azim Premji who owns more than 80% of Bangalore-based Wipro India’s third largest software exporter discusses why that country’s IT companies have done a better job at delivering services than developing products. Speaking with Wharton professor Ravi Aron he points out that customers are beginning to unbundle prices with the result that established IT and consulting firms are starting to see premiums disappear. ”Customers are trying to optimize value ” Premji says. ”The old boys’ club of closed tennis court relationships is on the way out.”

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When James C. Collins and Jerry I. Porras wrote their hugely popular 1994 book Built to Last: Successful Habits of Visionary Companies they began by stating clearly that they did not mean to write about visionary leaders. Their goal was to find visionary companies -- the crown jewels of their industries -- and discover what made them extraordinary. Then questions arose about the extent to which the principles of Built to Last might apply to individuals. That sparked another investigation that has now led to a follow-up book Success Built to Last which will be published by Wharton School Publishing later this year. Mark Thompson and Stewart Emery co-authors with Porras of Success Built to Last spoke with Knowledge at Wharton about their book. In addition the authors are conducting a global survey on how people think about success; a link to the survey can be found at the end of this interview.

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Roy Vagelos a highly regarded pharmaceutical executive who spent two decades at Merck including 10 years as CEO has often said that ”research remains my life blood ” and indeed he has stayed active in the industry since his retirement from Merck in 1994. For example he is chairman of the board of two small drug companies Regeneron Pharmaceuticals and Theravance and in 2004 co-authored a book entitled Medicine Science and Merck. Vagelos recently spoke with Robbie Shell editorial director of Knowledge at Wharton and Steve Guglielmi Knowledge at Wharton senior editor about the future of the pharmaceutical industry including competition from generics the impact of outsourcing biotech alliances pricing strategies and the next big drug breakthroughs.

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Kevin Werbach a professor of legal studies and business ethics at Wharton spoke recently with David Yaun an IBM executive about the company’s Global Innovation Outlook project. According to Yaun ”traditionally companies have identified innovation with gadgets and gizmos but that thinking is being transformed.” The definition of innovation is being broadened -- it is becoming more open collaborative global and inter-disciplinary. ”The barriers to innovation and collaboration have come down dramatically ” Yaun says. This was the second in a series of interviews about themes to be featured at Supernova a conference Werbach organizes in collaboration with Wharton in San Francisco.

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