Kontrarian Korner

Yesterday morning I had Erik from Your Weekend Reading on the podcast for a great and wide ranging discussion. We talked about everything from bonds and changing market regimes to inflation and Project Zimbabwe, which ties in with his experience investing in Africa. You can also find him on Twitter here.

Podcast Summary

* We talked about a regime change in the market, and what it might look like for different asset classes over the next several years.

* His thoughts on bonds, debt levels, positioning, and why the yield on the 10 year could go to 6%.

* Why he thinks the Fed jumped the gun by cutting rates.

* The psychology of inflation becoming embedded, and why wage inflation is here to stay.

* His thoughts on gold, central bank buying, the miners, energy, and other commodities.

* How the day to day adoption of Bitcoin over the last decade has been disappointing for bulls, despite his view that it is a good store of value.

* Why he is bullish on natural gas, and why he went from bullish on oil to a more mixed view recently.

* His thoughts on Trump potentially being able to calm things down in Ukraine and/or the Middle East.

* The rapid developments and technology advancements in the Chinese manufacturing economy.

* Why he finds China a very attractive pond to fish in with cheap valuations and bombed out sentiment.

* He also makes a compelling case for the European banks.

* Why Trump 2.0 and tariffs might not be able to make American manufacturing great again.

* Book Recommendations: Antifragile & The Black Swan by Nassim Taleb.

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I hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving last week, but I wanted to put out a short video this morning. I got a couple questions on Calumet $CLMT with the DOE loan and dilution, so I wanted to follow up after my recent podcast with Karst Research and Jake LaMotta. It won’t be a full breakdown, so you should watch that first if you’re interested. I also wanted to briefly cover the latest with Sable Offshore $SOC . The Fire Marshal updated their Pathways for Restarting CA-324 and CA-325 website, but it looks like they aren’t going to step in with the whole CCC circus.

Whatever happens, I think we will get some clarity on what path Sable will take in the next couple weeks. I wrapped up by talking briefly about Peabody Energy’s $BTU and their acquisition, and why my attitude towards that one is starting to change. I have been busy pulling double duty at the family business recently, but I do have some good podcast guests lined up for the next couple weeks, so keep an eye out for those. I also have a couple new ideas I have been digging into recently, and I’ll share those when I have done enough research.

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Yesterday I had two guests on the podcast, Karst Research and Dylan (aka Jake LaMotta, aka Raging Bull Capital), to talk about Calumet $CLMT . You should all go check out their Substacks below. You can also find them on Twitter (here and here). It was an interesting conversation on a stock that has several catalysts lined up in the near future. We talked about the DOE loan that is expected to close before year end, the different segments of the business, and more.

Podcast Summary

* We talked about the 30,000 foot view of Calumet, which has transitioned from a busted MLP with no dividend to a C-corp earlier this year.

* The terms of the DOE loan, which was announced in October, and expected to close by year end.

* Why Karst views the DOE loan as a balance sheet event, and the deleveraging and reduction in interest expense that will happen as a result of the loan.

* How Dylan thinks the DOE loan derisks the business for the next couple years.

* What SAF (sustainable aviation fuel) expansion might look like for Calumet.

* I play devil’s advocate questioning the long-term viability of SAF.

* Their thoughts on what a potential monetization event might look like (and its timing), whether it’s an IPO of the Montana Renewables segment, or a sale of one of the other segments.

* If there are any risks to Calumet from the incoming Trump administration.

* Book Recommendation from Dylan: How The World Really Works by Vaclav Smil.

* Book Recommendation from Karst: Throne of Grace by Bob Drury & Tom Clavin.

Disclaimer

All three of us currently have an investment in Calumet. You should do your own research before making any investment decisions. Different investment strategies have different risk/return profiles which should be considered before making any decisions.

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Yesterday I had Will Tanner from The American Tribune on the podcast to discuss Rhodesia, Ronald Reagan, and the future of America and Britain. You can also find Will and his viral threads on Rhodesia on Twitter. It was an interesting and wide ranging conversation on Rhodesia, its parallels to the current state of the US, and other topics that will certainly give listeners food for thought.

Podcast Summary

* We talked about the history of Rhodesia and how it went from the breadbasket of Africa to killing elephants for food after a drought.

* How sanctions from the US, UK, and the UN led to the end of Rhodesia.

* He talked about their successful propertied voting system (without apartheid like South Africa) that incentivizes the right things from the populace, and only gives a say to those with a stake in the system.

* His view on the Cold War, and why it wasn’t really about a fight between freedom and democracy against communism.

* His thoughts on egalitarianism, disparate impact, and other questionable policies of the West.

* We also talked about Ronald Reagan, and how his policies led to some of the problems we have today with illegal immigration, no fault divorce, and growth of the national debt (and also immunity for vaccine manufacturers).

* The issues with birthright citizenship.

* Private equity strip mining the middle class, and their impact on the healthcare industry.

* His thoughts on the future of the US, and what could be done to fix things here.

* Mass immigration, and how policies could be shifted to encourage self-deportation.

* His thoughts on the state of Britain, and the punitive inheritance taxes.

* Book Recommendation: 1913 by Charles Emmerson.

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On Friday I had Sal Mercogliano on the podcast to talk about all things shipping. His YouTube channel, What’s Going On With Shipping, is a great resource to stay up to date on all of the things that have an impact on the sector. You can also find him on Twitter. We talked about the incoming Trump administration and some of the different shipping sectors.

Podcast Summary

* The potential impact of tariffs from the Trump Administration, particularly the impact on China. We also talked about how tariffs might implemented, and why tariffs scaling in is better than implementing a large tariff all at once.

* Why he’s watching the Cabinet selections to see how it might have an impact on the business environment.

* He discussed why he favors the tanker sector, the potential impact of sanctions against Iran, and how a resolution in Ukraine could change things for tankers.

* Containers, $ZIM , and what might happen if/when the conflict in the Red Sea with the Houthis stops.

* Dry Bulk, and how he views it as a precursor for what’s going on in the economy. We also talked about bauxite growth, and the potential impact of other dry bulk commodities.

* The current state of the shipyards and order books, including longer build times, the impact of changing emissions standards, and scrapping potential.

* LNG, the US permitting export capacity with a new administration, and the issue of LNG competing with pipeline gas.

* China’s outsized impact on the shipbuilding sector. The country builds over half of the world’s ships, with the China State Shipbuilding Corporation accounting for ~20%.

* Book Recommendations: Maritime Economics by Martin Stopford & The Box by Marc Levinson.

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My guest on today’s podcast is E.M. Burlingame, a former Green Beret with wide variety of career experiences in different parts of the financial world. I first heard him on The Coffee And A Mike Podcast, but we had a great discussion on the results of the Presidential Election and everything else that is going on in the world right now. You can also find him on Twitter, or his books on Amazon.

Podcast Summary

* The results of the Presidential Election, and what might happen as Trump transitions into office.

* How Europe is dying, and his thoughts on the European Union.

* The different factions of power (the mob state, the Praetorian system) and the princes/aristocrats fighting behind the scenes.

* Why some of the European factions are pushing for escalation in Ukraine and the Middle East.

* The contrast of the land powers in Eurasia (China, Russia, and Iran), and the sea powers (US and the West).

* Student loan forgiveness, and the fall of the academic system in the US.

* The importance of quality collateral in the current financial system.

* Real estate speculation and immigration’s impact on the real estate market.

* Market dynamics around passive investing and high frequency trading.

* The multiple financial rug pulls of the different generations here in the US.

* What he’s watching for the Trump presidency and beyond.

* The aristocracy turning into a noble class, and why we are the early days of a new feudal system.

* Book Recommendation (His Book): The Eternal War by EM Burlingame.

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Yesterday I had Peter R. Quiñones on the podcast to discuss the upcoming Presidential Election, geopolitical events in the Middle East and Ukraine, and our occupied government. You should all go check out Pete’s podcast and his Twitter. He’s a very entertaining follow, and his frequent podcasts are one of the reasons I stayed sane during the COVID lockdowns a couple years ago.

Podcast Summary

* The predicament that the Regime has with letting Trump become President.

* Why he thinks Trump will win, and why the election won’t be called on election night.

* Which swing states might have issues with the vote.

* The potential for lawfare or another assassination attempt before inauguration day.

* Jeff Bezos and some of the recent developments at the Washington Post

* His thoughts on Elon Musk’s influence, and how the Senate and House results might impact things.

* The impact of potential deportations on things like real estate, wages, and cost of living.

* Israeli influence on US politics, and the occupied state of the US federal government.

* His thoughts on what is going on in the Middle East and Ukraine.

* Why the US won’t become a monarchy until the managerial state has been abolished.

* Federalism and the importance of local government, specifically the sheriff.

* His thoughts on eliminating the income tax for tariffs, and why you would need to deregulate in a big way to make tariffs work.

* Book Recommendation: Race War In High School by Harold Saltzman (go listen to Pete’s full book reading on this one), and Imperium by Francis Parker Yockey (also recommended by Stormy Waters).

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Once you realize it’s all nonsense then it all makes sense.

A couple days ago, I had fellow Substack author Le Shrub on the podcast. He writes over at Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator, and if you don’t already follow him, you should. He’s clearly the most talented trader in the plant kingdom, but we had a great conversation on different commodities, the market, and several stocks of interest. He’s also a very entertaining follow on Twitter.

Podcast Summary

* His preferred way to get exposure to oil, and what it takes for geopolitical risk to get priced into oil markets.

* The Trump trades, and how a Trump win might be worse for deficits, bonds, and the dollar.

* Why platinum is his preferred precious metal inflation hedge, Costco’s $COST (yes, that Costco) potential impact on a platinum bull market, and how platinum is trading at the widest discount to gold in history.

* His thoughts on several coal stocks, including Peabody Energy $BTU and Warrior Met Coal $HCC , and the outlook for metallurgical vs. thermal coal.

* Why tin is one of his favorite under the radar opportunities in the commodities space.

* His thoughts on broader markets, what he’s looking for to get bearish, and why investors should keep an eye on China.

* Book Recommendation: The Gambler by Fyodor Dostoevsky.

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Yesterday I had Larry Johnson on the podcast to talk about all of the things going on around the world. He’s former CIA and a very sharp geopolitical analyst. We talked about what is going on in the Middle East with Israel and Iran, Ukraine, and how the US Presidential election might play out. You can find him at SONAR21, where he breaks down current events here in the US and abroad.

Podcast Summary

* We talk about Israel and the multiple fronts that have been in the news as of late.

* The impact of propaganda in the US on older generations and their view of Israel, with the movie Exodus as one example.

* How younger generations have a very different view of Israel in light of recent events.

* How Israel started the conflict with Iran (attacking their consulate), and how Iran might retaliate if Israel targets oil, nuclear, or military targets.

* His thoughts on whether or not Iran has nukes, and the recent potential underground nuclear test in Iran.

* Will the US get more involved in the conflict between Israel and Iran?

* The various problems facing Ukraine in their fight against Russia.

* Drone warfare, and developments of new capabilities being developed and used in the Ukrainian theater.

* Why he thinks Trump will win in the upcoming election.

* The shifting media narrative machine and how SNL is a warning indicator for Kamala and her chances.

* Immigration, gaslighting, and what might happen with immigration if Kamala is installed.

* Book Recommendations: America’s Last War & Losing Military Supremacy by Andrei Martyanov.

* Bonus Movie Recommendation: Exodus.

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Last week I had Mihail Stoyanov, the author of TheOldEconomy, on the podcast to talk about shipping, commodities, and his investment strategy. With his background in the shipping sector, he was able to give some valuable insights into the different subsectors worth keeping an eye on moving forward. We also talked about commodities, his options strategy, and other opportunities he finds attractive today.

Podcast Summary

* We talked about why he likes Cape Size vessels, and Navios Maritime Partners $NMM in particular.

* His thoughts on the LNG sector, and what makes Dynagas $DLNG and their ICE class vessels attractive (their 6 vessel fleet includes 5 ICE class vessels).

*A Quick Note: I looked this up after the recording, but Dynagas is a Master Limited Partnership, which requires a K-1 tax form here in the US. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

* Why he likes the shipbuilding sector and Seatrium in particular.

* His bullish views on precious metals and the different ways he expresses that view for gold, silver, and PGMs.

* Golar LNG $GLNG , their unique assets, and why he still likes the company.

* His thoughts on the steel sector, Gerdau $GGB , and emerging markets like Brazil.

* We also talked about his options strategy and what he looks for when taking a position.

* Book Recommendation: Thinking In Bets by Annie Duke.

Disclaimer

We talked about several companies that one (or both) of us might have investments in. You should do your own research before making any investment decisions. Different investment strategies have different risk/return profiles which should be considered before making any decisions.

Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe