Kontrarian Korner

Yesterday I had both halves of Gold Goats n’ Guns on the podcast for round 2. Tom Luongo and Dexter White returned to the podcast to talk about the situation in the Middle East, the setup for oil, global bond markets, and precious metals, as well as other domestic issues here in the US. We also talked about the media and social media environment, Russia and Ukraine, and several other issues. You can find Tom on Twitter and his podcast at Gold, Goats n’ Guns. You can also find Dexter on Twitter.

Podcast Summary

* Why people are overreacting to Section 219 of the NDAA.

* How the media environment is like trying to decipher a game a telephone with various nefarious actors trying to put their agenda into the narrative.

* The situation in the Middle East and the end of the ceasefire, and their best guess on how it plays out.

* How changes in OPEC and the US as the world’s largest oil exporter change the situation for oil.

* Russia and Ukraine, reduced Russian refining capacity, and how Europe is involved.

* Their view on the different global bond markets and what Warsh will do in coming months.

* Their view on precious metals, the AI investment cycle, and why data centers are only required for inference, not ongoing usage of existing models.

* Why Dexter doesn’t think OpenAI will be able to IPO this year.

* Lindsey Graham, Mitch McConnell, and the midterms.

* The problems with the Supreme Court, and the issues with the birthright citizenship ruling.

* Book Recommendations: The Age of Surveillance Capitalism by Shoshana Zuboff & Fed Up by Danielle DiMartino Booth.

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Yesterday I had Matt Smith @ Crisis Investing back on the podcast. We talked about Schrodinger’s ceasefire in the Middle East and why he is cautious on financial markets for the rest of 2026. We also talked about rapid technological advancements and living in an era of revolutionary change, and how shifts in the economic and financial systems will feed into culture and politics. If you’re looking for a podcast with a mix of current events and big picture long term topics, you will enjoy this one. You can find Matt on Twitter and at Crisis Investing.

Podcast Summary

* The supply disruption with the Strait of Hormuz, how the SPR and China reducing imports have delayed things, and the complacency around bigger problems.

* The hyperfinancialization of markets and the economy, and why he thinks we could see a washout in the second half of this year.

* The pullback in resource stocks this year, and why he thinks there is a long term opportunity there.

* Enshittification of different industries and the involvement of private equity and credit.

* How cheap capital has created distortions over the last several decades.

* The revolutionary period that we are in for economic systems and financial markets, and how it will feed into culture and politics.

* How changes in technology are going to feed into the revolutionary period.

* The mask coming off for the US government and the looting the treasury phase.

* COVID as the dividing line between the before times and where we are today.

* Book Recommendations: 1873 by Liaquat Ahamed & The Sovereign Individual by James Dale Davidson and William Rees-Mogg.

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Yesterday I had Colonel Towner-Watkins on for part 11 of the CIA Files. This week we were talking about the CIA involvement in Guatemala and how United Fruit participated. We covered the different figures involved on the US side, the kill list they put together, the media playbook they used, and the agenda of the local politicians that was unacceptable to the State Department. You can find the Colonel on Twitter, Rumble, YouTube, and Substack.

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Yesterday I had Colonel Towner-Watkins on for part 10 of the CIA Files. This week we were talking about Iran and the role of the British and American intelligence community in the overthrow of Mohammad Mosaddegh. This included Kermit Roosevelt, the Dulles brothers, and other notable figures around the Truman and Eisenhower administrations. We also connected the dots a little bit to the Iranian Revolution in 1979 and recent events in the Middle East, but I’m sure we will cover those in more detail in the future. You can find the Colonel on Twitter, Rumble, YouTube, and Substack.

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Yesterday I had Porter Collins and Vincent Daniel on the podcast for the first time. We talked about everything going on markets, from the sucking sound of money chasing technology to the bifurcation of wealth in society and the role of government when it comes to regulating what is going on in markets. We also talked about gold, the Fed, and where things might be headed over the next couple years. You can find Porter and Vincent at their Substack, which is a must follow.

Podcast Summary

* The bifurcation of wealth going on right now and the historical comparisons to previous cycles.

* How passive and quant funds have continued to play bigger roles in the market.

* The SpaceX valuation and Elon’s role in the establishment.

* Insider trading and the lack of trust in our institutions.

* The government taking stakes in companies and the shift towards state owned enterprises.

* Why they avoid trading political views and instead focus on the motivations of different powerful players and how it impacts markets.

* The plunge protection team and the intervention in different markets by the Fed and the Treasury.

* How gold protects investors from long-term debasement.

* Warsh’s role at the Fed and why their most important job is finding investors to buy US debt to keep the cost of capital low.

* Why the US is like Gotham, and why the formerly unwritten rules need to codified.

* Their thoughts on sports gambling and prediction markets.

* Why the only time they actually get bearish is when the Fed starts tightening rates because that is when the liquidity and the tide starts going out.

* Book Recommendations: A Short History On Financial Euphoria by John Kenneth Galbraith, The Making Of A Permabear by Jeremy Grantham & Great Society by Amity Shlaes.

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I hope everyone enjoyed the 4th of July yesterday, America’s 250th birthday, and the long weekend. Last Wednesday I had Cameron Macgregor on the podcast for a follow up on our first conversation. This time we talked about the culture issues here in the US, the historical mythology of the West, and the polarity between the masculine and the feminine. If you’re interested in the long term path of the US and Western society, this one’s for you. You can find Cameron on YouTube, Substack, and Instagram.

Podcast Summary

* Why Citizen Vigilante isn’t a great film, but it is an important signpost for where things are today in the West.

* The mythology of the World Wars and the power of taboo.

* The building revolt against the current institutions and systems in the West.

* The differences between men and women and how it affects business, government, and society.

* Why the decentralized right wing movement needs to scale to gain legitimacy.

* The broken social contract, and how it would break for the whole society of the older generations stop receiving support from Social Security and other programs.

* How all of this is leading towards fix-it politics.

* Why we will see new archetypes in the future between men and women, and why conservatives miss the point in trying to preserve a system that shouldn’t be saved.

* The need for a society level project in the vein of the Manhattan Project to make major changes across government, infrastructure, business, and culture.

* Book Recommendations: Psycho-Cybernetics by Maxwell Maltz and Totem and Taboo by Sigmund Freud.

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Yesterday I had Melody Wright back on the podcast to talk about real estate, societal changes, and the financial market mess that could be in store in the back half of 2026. We also talked about private equity and private credit and their impact on the economy, and several cultural issues that come from having a hyperfinancialized economy. If you’re interested in real estate or some of the storm clouds on the horizon for financial markets, you will like this one. You can find Melody and her work on her Substack as well as on Twitter.

Podcast Summary

* Why several different converging factors could lead to a bumpy ride for financial markets, real estate, and private equity and credit in the second half of 2026.

* The multifamily boom that has led to decreasing rents and increasing vacancies.

* How residential real estate is seeing unseasonal weakness, with increasing delinquencies and foreclosures.

* Offshoring vs. AI and what it means for the labor market.

* The different culture war problems, and how social media exaggerates the divide between groups.

* How economic cycles impact families and the root of the culture war agenda.

* COVID as a turning point for more people waking up to what is going on.

* Why regulatory changes are required for real estate and banking.

* How enshittification has impacted various sectors of the economy.

* Why there will probably be an opportunity to buy residential real estate by the end of the decade.

* Her view on rates and where we are in the cycle, and how that feeds into the real estate market.

* Book Recommendation: The Rape of the Mind by Joost A.M. Meerloo.

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Yesterday I had Ronald Dodson back on the podcast to talk about everything that has happened since our last discussion. We talked about the recent wave of Supreme Court rulings, recent events in the Middle East, and US relations with Russia and China, among other things. He also shared his view on the path we are on, and the problems with viewing America as an economic zone. Ron publishes on The American Mind for the Claremont Institute, Responsible Statecraft, and American Reformer. You can also find Ron on Twitter and on Substack.

Podcast Summary

* The issues with the Supreme Court rulings, particularly with Birthright Citizenship.

* How the differences between men and women impact culture and the decision making process.

* Recent events in Iran, why they still hold a grudge against America, and why they still hold all the cards in the negotiations.

* Why Russia is increasingly frustrated with the West’s involvement in Ukraine.

* How the situation in Iran shows that the US would not be able to stop China if they made a move on Taiwan, and how he would address that with a Hong Kong style handoff.

* America as an economic zone, and the importance of having a state religion.

* Why the current trend will eventually lead towards “Fix It” politics.

* Book Recommendations: The City and Man by Leo Strauss & The History of Political Philosophy by Leo Strauss and Joseph Cropsey.

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Yesterday I had Colonel Towner-Watkins on for part 9 of the CIA Files. We talked about Albania, Poland, and the rest of Eastern Europe, and how the seeds of the Cold War were planted by the CIA. We also talked a little bit about how the Cold War was a psyop and the people involved with one of the major operations in Eastern Europe. We wrapped up by covering some of the ties between culture and politics and how things have changed in recent years. You can find the Colonel on Twitter, Rumble, YouTube, and Substack.

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Yesterday I had Jesse Felder back on the podcast. We covered his outlook for AI and data centers, including a couple stories that are similar to the old shoeshine boy story. He also laid out some of the problems he sees in private equity and private credit, along with real estate. We wrapped things up by talking about what is going on in the commodities space, and why he favors energy right now despite the recent price action. If you’re looking for a conversation that covers the different asset classes across financial markets, this one’s for you. You can find Jesse at his website, The Felder Report, and on Twitter and Bluesky.

Podcast Summary

* The AI and data center frenzy that has built up and the shoeshine boy stories from recent weeks.

* Why the AI models are going to be commodities, and the potential changes to locally hosted models.

* The cockroaches in private equity and private credit, and why he thinks we could be seeing the beginning of the credit cycle.

* The layers of leverage in the system, including leveraged ETFs and increases in margin debt.

* The potential policy response from the Fed and the Treasury, and what it means for interest rates.

* Why the inflation story is baked into the cake and related to more than just energy costs.

* The issues in the real estate market, and why he doesn’t think it’s as frothy as other asset classes.

* The relationship between capital and labor, and why he thinks that will change in the next crisis.

* Why there are opportunities in the energy sector despite the recent selloff in oil.

* Other opportunities in the commodities space, including precious metals.

* Book Recommendations: The Great Demographic Reversal and The Unanchored Central Banker by Charles Goodheart and Manoj Pradhan.

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This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe