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On today's Locked On Giants podcast, host Ben Kaspick discusses the latest with MLB lockout. Commissioner Rob Manfred met with the media on Thursday and expressed optimism about the league and the players reaching a deal in time to begin the season as planned on March 31. Previously, the league had said it would not make a counteroffer to the players' latest offer, but they have since backed off that position, and they plan to make a core economics proposal on Saturday. Jon Heyman of MLB Network and Audacy Sprots reports that the league is expected to make significant concessions in its next proposal.
Manfred also mentioned that the league has "agreed to" a universal DH and the elimination of the qualifying offer. These statements have sparked some confusion; what he meant was that the league has offered those concessions in its rejected proposals. No official agreements have actually been made to this point.
Finally, Ben gets into some mailbag questions. He names Joey Bart, Heliot Ramos, Sammy Long, Camilo Doval, Kervin Castro, Gregory Santos, Sean Hjelle, and others as prospects who could play roles for the Giants this season. Speaking of Bart, he also discusses the Giants' catcher situation, which is much worse off after Buster Posey retired. Bart and Casali is not a strong enough pair at this point, and some kind of additional move (or moves) will need to be made prior to the start of the 2022 season.
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No team was more extreme than the San Francisco Giants in 2021.
At least Locked On Giants host Ben Kaspick doesn't think so. So many of their players show up unexpectedly among the leaders in important categories. Either that or they lead in categories fans might not immediately think of when talking about baseball numbers. Yes, the SF Giants were a team of extremes last year, all the way down to their MLB-best 107-55 record.
The poster boy might as well be Tyler Rogers. Among all pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched since 2019, Rogers is first in Barrel percentage, second in soft-hit percentage, third in HR/9, third in Zone percentage, eight in ERA and ground ball rate, and ninth in walk percentage. And he does it in such an unconventional way. He allows a ton of contact, but he's almost impossible to square up in the air. He was a big reason for the Giants' shocking success in 2021.
Some other examples include Tommy La Stella, who's among the very best in the game in strikeout-to-walk ratio. He's up there with Juan Soto and other elite hitters. He also makes more contact than almost anyone in baseball when he swings. José Álvarez—yes, José Álvarez, has had baseball's best fastball (per 100 thrown) since 2019, according to FanGraphs. No one throws more pitches in the strike zone than Jake McGee. No team threw a higher percentage of pitches in the zone than the Giants in 2021. Anthony DeSclafani's fastball was among the most valuable in baseball in 2021.
The Giants flew extremely under the radar coming into 2021. Projection systems had them as a below-.500 team, and they won 107 games. They did it by having lesser-known players end up near the top of key leaderboards, and by leading the league in some more under-the-radar categories. The league is zigging, and the Giants are zagging. And it's hard to argue with the extremely good results.
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On today's Locked On Giants podcast, host Ben Kaspick joins Locked On Diamondbacks host Millard Thomas to discuss all things San Francisco Giants Hall of Fame. With Barry Bonds falling off the ballot recently, Ben and Millard discuss the writers keeping him out of Cooperstown, and if it makes sense. They talk about David Ortiz getting in on the first ballot despite him reportedly testing positive for a PED in 2003. The process doesn't appear to be fair at all, and Ben's opinion is that we don't know who was using and who wasn't, so the writers really shouldn't pick and choose based on suspected PED use.
Ben and Millard also talk about the careers of Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain. Lincecum, of course, burst onto the scene in the late 2000s and quickly became the best pitcher in the game. He won back-to-back Cy Young Awards in 2008 and 2009, and he looked to be on a Hall of Fame trajectory. But then his career went sideways in a hurry. Ben explains to Millard that Lincecum quickly and consistently lost velocity on his fastball due to hip issues, and once the velocity was diminished everything fell apart.
Similarly, Matt Cain was a solidly above-average pitcher for many years for the Giants, yet he abruptly fell off a cliff around the same time as Lincecum. Ben adds that Cain also dealt with numerous injuries and diminished velocity during his decline. Finally, the two talk about the Hall of Fame candidacies of Madison Bumgarner and Buster Posey, both of whom probably have a better shot than Lincecum or Cain. Ben believes Bumgarner is probably not a Hall of Famer, but that Posey will be the one player to get in for the Giants this century, despite having so much individual and team success since 2000.
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On today's Locked On Giants podcast, host Ben Kaspick talks about MLB and the MLBPA's 90-minute meeting in New York on Tuesday, and how the two sides remain far apart on several major issues with Spring Training report dates looming. In Tuesday's meeting, the MLBPA made slight alterations to its proposals about the pre-arbitration bonus pool and service time manipulation. They lowered the amount they're asking for in the bonus pool from $105 million to $100 million, but importantly, they continue to ask for players to reach arbitration after two years, compared to the three it is now. The league has said that is a non-starter.
Ben goes through issue by issue discussing where the league and the players stand, and the separation that exists between them. He discusses arbitration and pre-arbitration pools. He discusses the luxury tax, which is a major point of contention. It has functioned like a soft cap, while its intended purpose was to prevent high-payroll teams from buying success and bulldozing over smaller market teams. It hasn't played out that way, with tons of parity still existing in the sport even among smaller market teams. The league is a very small increase while the players want a big one. Ben also discusses the issues of a draft lottery and service time manipulation. Regarding the draft lottery, the league's warts are clearly showing, as the players' asks are clearly aimed at competitive integrity, and league seems to be fighting against that, which is hard to justify.
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On today's Locked On Giants podcast, host Ben Kaspick discusses FanGraphs' newly released San Francisco Giants Top 39 Prospects list. The list is full of surprises, not at all conforming to the status quo or other rankings. For example, Patrick Bailey, to Ben's knowledge never before seen in the Giants' Top 5, ranks as the organization's third-best prospect. Joey Bart, meanwhile, continues his fall with evaluators, coming in as the team's sixth-best prospect. Bart's miserable 2020 debut really sent his stock reeling, and Ben discusses what this means for the Giants' future at the catcher position, with Buster Posey retired and Curt Casali the only other catcher on the roster (along with Bart) who projects to get major league playing time in 2022.
Ben also talks about another top ranking for Marco Luciano, although he wonders a little bit about Luciano's fall from a 60 future value ranking down to 55. His struggles in High-A don't seem too important, given he was the youngest player at the entire level. Luis Matos also gets another high ranking, coming in as the organization's second-best prospect. Matos offers a tantilizing blend of hit and power, to go along with speed and a center field profile. He has an elite strikeout rate, but his feel for contact does lead to a little more chase than the Giants likely want. Regardless, Matos and Luciano have sky-high ceilings and it will be exciting to follow their progress in 2022. They're likely to begin the season in High-A Eugene, and could be promoted to Double-A by the end of the year, with a major league debut possible in 2023.
Kyle Harrison, Heliot Ramos, Gregory Santos, Hunter Bishop, Will Bednar, and Jairo Pomares round out the Top 10.
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On today's Locked On Giants podcast, host Ben Kaspick answers questions from listeners about the state of the San Francisco Giants. Among the questions asked and answered are:
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On today's Locked On Giants podcast, host Ben Kaspick discusses San Francisco Giants legend Barry Bonds falling off the Hall of Fame ballot after being rejected for a 10th and final time by the Baseball Writers Association of America. Bonds received 66% of the vote, far short of the 75% threshold needed to get in. David Ortiz, in his first year on the ballot, was elected to the Hall of Fame. Ortiz reportedly tested positive for PED's in 2003, but that apparently didn't matter to some of the writers who felt the need to keep Bonds, a far superior player to Ortiz, out of the Hall.
Ben discusses how the Hall of Fame has left him feeling jaded after all these years, and his overwhelming feeling is one of not caring anymore, as opposed to being enraged. He talks about how Bonds has the second-most fWAR of all time, behind Babe Ruth, and Ortiz is over 100 fWAR behind him. Ben would've voted for Ortiz, but Bonds is arguably the best baseball player ever. As former FanGraphs writer Jeff Sullivan noted on Twitter, the difference between Bonds' fWAR and Ortiz's fWAR is Alex Rodriguez. That just about says it all.
Finally, Ben discusses more details about the MLB lockout. The MLBPA and the league met on Monday and Tuesday in New York, and Ben has more details about those meetings. The league reportedly agreed to the players' proposal of a bonus pool for pre-arbitration players, although they remain far apart on the amount of the pool. The league proposed $10 million after the players asked for more than $100 million. But Ben sees a big flaw with the idea: both sides have proposed basing it on Wins Above Replacement, or WAR, which is not a clear-cut metric like average, OBP, or slugging percentage. Different sites use different calculations, and their formulas are regularly tweaked. There are many issues with using WAR, but on the whole, it's a good thing that both sides agree that pre-arb players should be eligible to earn more money based on performance.
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On today's Locked On Giants podcast, host Ben Kaspick details the latest from around Major League Baseball. The MLB Players Association and MLB met in person in Manhattan on Monday and Tuesday, marking significant progress from the weeks of no substantive meetings between the two sides since the lockout began on Dec. 2. In its counterproposal to the league, the MLBPA held firm on its push for two-year arbitration eligibility, a substantially increased Competitive Balance Tax threshold, and cuts to revenue sharing. Notably, the league lowered its proposed cut from $100 million to $30 million in its latest offer. The players' side also proposed a substantial increase to the league minimum salary, to $775,000.
Ben also discusses Kevin Gausman's tweet over the weekend, in which he declared that the San Francisco Giants never made him a contract offer this offseason. Gausman ultimately signed a five-year, $110 million contract with the Toronto Blue Jays. Ben dives into why the Giants may not have made him an offer. It's plausible that Gausman's representation made it clear that their client was seeking to maximize total dollars, and that the Giants were more interested in a shorter-term deal with a higher average annual value.
Finally, Ben discusses the Hall of Fame vote, which is set to be announced today. Barry Bonds, Jeff Kent, and Tim Lincecum are the names to watch for Giants fans. The threshold to get in is 75% of the vote; last year, Bonds received 61.8%. This is Bonds' final year of eligibility. Kent has two more years counting this one, and his highest total was in the low-30s. This is Lincecum's first year on the ballot, and he is very unlikely to ever get in. But the number to watch is 5%: that's what Lincecum needs today in order to remain on the ballot next year.
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On today's Locked On Giants podcast, host Ben Kaspick discusses the San Francisco Giants' sixth- through 10th-best prospects, according to Baseball America. Yesterday he talked about the Giants' Top Five, all of whom had a spot on BA's Top 100 Prospects list. Marco Luciano, Joey Bart, Luis Matos, Heliot Ramos, and Kyle Harrison are exciting prospects indeed. But what about the next five names?
Ben discusses the scouting reports on Will Bednar, the Giants' first-round pick in 2021, Matt Mikulski, their second-round pick last year, and the three others rounding out the top 10. Jairo Pomares, Aeverson Arteaga, and Ryan Murphy complete the list.
Overall, Ben points out that it's best not to only look at one source when evaluating prospects. Predicting the future success (or failure) of prospects is an extremely tricky business, so looking at as many sources as possible is always a good idea. Ben plans on discussing the upcoming top prospects lists that will be announced by other major sources. He also discusses the fact that the MLBPA is going to make an in-person proposal to MLB on Monday in Manhattan. This will be the second significant meeting of the MLB lockout, with the league having made its first core economics proposal to the MLBPA last Thursday.
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On today's Locked On Giants podcast, host Ben Kaspick discusses Baseball America's newly released Top 100 Prospects list, which includes five members of the San Francisco Giants organization. Atop the Giants' rankings is 20-year-old shortstop Marco Luciano, who comes in with a ranking of No. 17. It's a slight fall for Luciano, who was ranked No. 9 in BA's most recent update to last year's ranking, but it's a strong showing nonetheless. Luciano is still very young and struggled in High-A Eugene in 2021, but he's likely to start there in 2022 and could move quickly if he's able to produce. He has the makings of a superstar if everything is able to come together for him.
Next on the list is Joey Bart, who fell all the way into the 70s after at one point being near-universally considered a Top 20 prospect a couple of years ago. Nonetheless, Bart is still considered on of the game's better prospects, and he still has a chance to be a big-time producer in the majors. He has a lot to work on, but he has pedigree, tools, and a clear path to a major league job now that Buster Posey is retired.
Next is Luis Matos, whom Ben might have higher than Bart. Matos offers a tantalizing blend of contact, power, and speed. He has a very high ceiling and could jump up rankings with another strong showing in the minors in 2022. Finally, Ben reads off the scouting reports for the final two prospects ranked in the Top 100 by BA: Heliot Ramos and Kyle Harrison. The Giants are one of only six organizations to have at least five BA Top 100 Prospects, with Pittsburgh and Arizona being tied for the most with six.
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