The best-case scenario for the Big 12 to land an improbable three teams in the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff (CFP) relies on the chaos of their own depth and favorable results in other major conferences.

 

The Winning Formula

 

This scenario requires three teams to finish with pristine records and high rankings:

The Conference Champion (e.g., BYU or Texas Tech) at 12-1:

One team, like BYU (currently 8-0), runs the table and wins the Big 12 Championship with only one loss (to the other top contender). This team would secure one of the automatic bids for the highest-ranked conference champions, likely landing a top-six seed.

The One-Loss Runner-Up (e.g., Texas Tech or BYU) as an At-Large:

The other top contender, like Texas Tech (currently 8-1), finishes 11-1 or 10-2 but loses a close Big 12 Championship game rematch. Their high ranking (Top 10), strength of schedule boosted by the winner's resume, and multiple ranked wins would be strong enough to earn one of the seven at-large berths, likely seeded 8th-10th.

The Two-Loss At-Large Contender (e.g., Utah) with Elite Wins:

A third team, such as Utah (currently 7-2), finishes 10-2 with both losses coming to the two teams mentioned above (the champion and runner-up). Utah's resume would need to be elite, featuring major non-conference wins and high-quality conference victories against other ranked Big 12 foes. The committee would view a 10-2 Utah as one of the best seven at-large teams in the nation.

 

External Factors

 

For this to happen, the Big Ten and SEC would need to cannibalize themselves, finishing with multiple three-loss teams instead of a clean four-team haul each. If the Big 12's third team is an 11-2 or 10-2 squad and the other Power Four leagues only produce two or three truly dominant teams apiece, the CFP committee would be forced to award the remaining at-large slots to the highly competitive Big 12.

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