LPL Research

In the latest Market Signals podcast, LPL Research’s Jeffrey Buchbinder, Chief Equity Strategist, and Dr. Jeffrey Roach, Chief Economist, discuss the latest move higher in interest rates, dissect Friday’s jobs report, explain why the bull market deserves the benefit of the doubt after last week’s selloff, and preview this week’s economic calendar.

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In the latest Market Signals podcast, Jeffrey Buchbinder, Chief Equity Strategist, and Lawrence Gillum, Chief Fixed Income Strategist, discuss the lack of a Santa Claus rally, review LPL Research’s winning and losing recommendations from 2024, and preview this week’s jobs report.

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In the latest LPL Market Signals podcast, LPL Research’s Chief Equity Strategist, Jeffrey Buchbinder, is joined by Chief Technical Strategist Adam Turnquist, as they discuss whether Santa Claus visited markets, review several charts to help assess when this latest pullback might find support, and highlight four keys to a strong stock market in 2025.

Stocks moved lower Friday, putting the Santa Claus rally in jeopardy. The strategists discuss what a weak finish to the year could mean for January and 2025.

Next, the strategists review some charts to help assess the latest technical damage and opine on how much further the latest sell-off may have to go.

The strategists closed with a quick preview of the week ahead and the sparse economic calendar.

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In the latest LPL Market Signals podcast, LPL strategists highlight seven charts that capture the market environment in 2024. They also weigh in on last week’s market decline amid the Federal Reserve’s hawkishness and discuss whether Santa Claus will visit the equity markets this week.

Stocks moved lower last week as the markets were caught off guard by the hawkishness from the Federal Reserve. Technology held up relatively well while energy and small cap stocks bore the brunt of the selling pressure.

The strategists highlight several key charts of 2024, including how mega caps have dominated performance once again this year, and discuss why small caps have struggled to keep up. They further note why this year’s best-performing sector could continue to outperform in 2025 and how gold has managed to outperform stocks, despite a risk-on and higher rate backdrop.

The strategists closed with a quick preview of this week’s holiday-shortened economic calendar and a reminder that the seven-day Santa Claus rally period begins on Christmas Eve.

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In the latest LPL Market Signals podcast, LPL Research’s Chief Equity Strategist, Jeffrey Buchbinder, is joined by Chief Fixed Income Strategist Lawrence Gillum, as they discuss the rare streak of negative market breadth readings, share their bond market outlook for 2025, and preview the week ahead featuring the last Federal Reserve meeting of 2024.

Stocks pulled back modestly last week, but the biggest story was the 10-day streak of negative breadth readings. Gains in big tech stocks have helped support the S&P 500 Index in recent weeks, but the strategists point out that the lack of broad participation points to a tired rally.

Next, the strategists discussed what fixed income investors could experience in 2025. While the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle will influence longer-term rates, a still flat U.S. Treasury yield curve and elevated levels of Treasury supply expected next year could keep rates around current levels. However, income-oriented investors have a plethora of opportunities to build portfolios that can generate income levels in excess of 5%.

The strategists close with a quick preview of this week’s Fed meeting where the comments from Jerome Powell and the Committee may matter more to markets than the fully expected rate cut or updated economic forecasts.

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In the latest LPL Market Signals podcast, LPL strategists share their economic and stock market outlook for 2025, taken from the newly released Outlook 2025: Pragmatic Optimism available on LPL.com's research page. They also recap last week’s tech-led market advance and preview the week ahead.

The strategists highlight several key economic themes for 2025:

• Slowing growth, not recession

• Capital investment could provide support

• Labor market slowly downshifts

• Inflation remains historically elevated

• Fed will cut rates at a slower pace

The strategists then highlight these stock market themes for 2025:

• Modest mid-to-high-single digit returns on strong earnings growth

• Upside could come from lower interest rates, productivity gains or market-friendly policy changes

• Risks include a potential pronounced economic slowdown, reaccelerating inflation, rate volatility, or geopolitical threats.

• Given stretched investor sentiment and rich valuations, we favor buying dips.

The strategists close with a brief preview of the week ahead, highlighted by inflation data and European Central bank rate decision.

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In the latest LPL Market Signals podcast, LPL strategists recap a strong November for stocks, discuss some ways geopolitics are affecting currency and commodity markets, and preview Friday’s jobs report.

Stocks enjoyed strong November returns, led by small caps. Small caps are benefiting from prospects of lower taxes and America First trade policy but are also interest rate sensitive and Fed rate cuts have been delayed.

Next, the strategists discuss how the U.S. dollar may react to global central bank policy and president-elect Trump’s trade policy.

The strategists then discuss how some of the geopolitical threats in the Mideast and Ukraine are affecting oil.

The strategists close with thoughts on the Federal Reserve’s rate cutting timetable and a preview of Friday’s jobs report. Job growth is expected to rebound after weather and strikes depressed job gains in October.

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In the latest LPL Market Signals podcast, LPL Research’s Chief Equity Strategist, Jeffrey Buchbinder, is joined by Chief Technical Strategist Adam Turnquist, as they recap last week’s strong bounce back for stocks, highlight the improving market breadth, and provide some perspective on market concentration.

Stocks rose solidly last week, rising all five days. It wasn’t about the mega-caps this week as a broadening out lifted large cap equity benchmarks.

The strategists reviewed several charts and discussed how broad participation underpinned the latest breakout to new highs on the S&P 500. They highlight how this rotation has also been evident in small caps but note the current technical evidence does not yet support a shift toward sustainable outperformance of small caps over large caps. Given the uptick in interest rate volatility, they also discuss the technical setup for 10-year Treasury yields, including key support and resistance levels.

Next, the strategists provide historical perspective on the high degree of concentration in the stock market today. The shift toward passive investments has been a big reason why. Concentration by itself isn’t a reason for a market correction, but it could amplify an eventual selloff.

The strategists wrap up with a preview of the week ahead. Minutes from the November Fed meeting, the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, and a big batch of Treasury auctions will keep markets focused on interest rates.

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In the latest LPL Market Signals podcast, LPL Research’s Chief Equity Strategist, Jeffrey Buchbinder, is joined by Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Lawrence Gillum, as they recap last week’s stock market decline, share some perspective on the latest bond market selloff, and highlight some things that may be different with Trump’s trade policy this time around.

Stocks fell last week, led down by healthcare and small caps. Markets were held back by rising rates after Federal Reserve Chair Powell indicated the Fed was in no hurry to raise rates, while the prospects for RFK Jr. as President-elect Trump’s Healthcare Secretary rattled vaccine makers.

Since the September 16 low, the 10-year Treasury yield is higher by over 0.80%. The bulk of the move higher is due to better economic data that has pushed out the need for aggressive rate cuts from the Fed. The strategists believe markets are better aligned with likely Fed cuts so, the bulk of the move higher in bond yields could be behind us.

The strategists then put Trump’s tariffs into perspective by looking back at how much of the so-called “tax” was paid by consumers and how much was absorbed by producers and international manufacturers.

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In the latest LPL Market Signals podcast, LPL strategists recap last week’s post-election surge in stocks, answer some important economic questions investors are asking after Trump’s election victory, and discuss some market implications of last week’s election.

Stocks surged last week, led by small caps, as markets reacted to Trump 2.0 by pricing in lower taxes and less regulation.

Next the strategists played “ask the economist”, with questions about the Federal Reserve, potential economic policy differences between Trump 1.0 and 2.0, and tariffs. The strategists then discussed some market implications from the election, including bullish seasonality, small cap enthusiasm, and the upward bias in rates.

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