Lykken on Lending

8.17.26 "Hello Goodbye" Say Bulls

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Wha, Wha, wha, wha, wha, wha

Do BULLS say goodbye, goodbye, bye, bye, bye, bye?

Staying between 4.80 and 4.20 in the 10-year yield enables builders to build, agents to sell, and mortgage bankers to lend.

Last week, inflation showed it isn't wild, but investors fear nightmare scenarios in the Strait of Hormuz despite Iran's dire economic plight. As a result, the timid bulls said goodbye.

We don't know why BULLS say goodbye, we say hello

Hello

These views are mine. Say hello at TMSpotlight.

Hela, heba helloa – Singers only

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Song: Hello Goodbye (1967) The Beatles

MBA is urging the CFPB to modernize TILA, RESPA, and TRID rules to reduce unnecessary compliance burdens, simplify the mortgage process, and expand consumer access to credit.

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Adam DeSanctis, VP of Communications at Mortgage Bankers Association

As a strategic public affairs and communications executive with nearly two decades of experience, Adam has deep expertise in strategy, management, and media relations. He is widely considered to be an expert in a variety of communications, including advocacy, brand, executive, crisis, grassroots, and social media. In his career, he has been the MBA spokesperson on a wide variety of real estate research and advocacy-related issues, promoted MBA research and advocacy efforts to financial, political, and trade industry media and on MBA's social media channels, and secured media opportunities for MBA leadership on key real estate trends and issues, generated media coverage for MBA's research and data on mortgage applications, credit availability, homebuilder applications, mortgage forbearance/delinquencies, commercial real estate originations, and forecasts, and other industry analysis, developed key strategic initiatives for MBA's organizational public affairs plan, media relations and member communications support for mPower, MBA's Opens Doors Foundation and MBA's Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion program.

The housing market may feel stuck, but beneath the surface, powerful demographic and economic forces are setting the stage for its next chapter. In this Hot Topic, David Lykken sits down with Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American Financial Corporation, to unpack what the data is really telling us about housing affordability, inventory, mortgage rates, and regional market differences. Odeta explains why the U.S. still faces a long-term housing shortage despite rising inventory in markets like Texas and Florida, how a “silver glacier” of aging Baby Boomers could gradually reshape housing supply, and why a growing population of “shadow homeowners”—younger adults with the jobs and incomes to buy but who have yet to leave the family home—could represent significant pent-up demand. For mortgage leaders trying to determine where opportunity will emerge next, this conversation offers a data-driven look beyond the headlines at the forces that could shape housing and mortgage demand for years to come.

The Lykken on Lending Weekly Mortgage Update delivers expert commentary and timely insights from across the mortgage industry. Each episode features a curated lineup of respected thought leaders and analysts:

• Adam DeSanctis with the MBA Mortgage Minute, providing key updates from the Mortgage Bankers Association.
• Les Parker’s TMSpotlight offers a macroeconomic perspective with his signature musical parodies.
• Matt Graham of MBS Live, breaking down market activity and interest rate movements.
• David Kittle, CEO of The Mortgage Collaborative, sharing insights on mortgage originations and industry trends.
• Alice Alvey of Union Home Mortgage, delivering essential regulatory and legislative updates.
• Allen Pollack, with the Tech Report, spotlighting emerging technologies impacting mortgage operations.
• Bill Corbet, presenting Bill's Bullet Commentary with focused insights on loan servicing and capital markets.
• Marc Helm, offering Marc’s Rant, an unfiltered take on operational and agency-related developments.

Together, this expert panel brings clarity, relevance, and a touch of personality to the ever-evolving mortgage landscape.

The challenges surrounding UWM could have implications that extend far beyond a single company, potentially reshaping the competitive dynamics of the wholesale mortgage market. In this segment of Lykken on Lending, the panel examines how UWM’s financial pressures, legal challenges, aggressive pricing strategy, and evolving leadership could affect mortgage brokers, competing wholesale lenders, and the broader industry. As competitors reconsider margins and brokers evaluate their dependence on wholesale partners for pricing, technology, and compliance support, the discussion raises an important question: could this moment trigger a broader shift in the broker-wholesale model? From pricing and profitability to technology and the potential resurgence of correspondent and retail strategies, the UWM fallout may ultimately become a catalyst for significant change across mortgage lending.

Generative and agentic AI are rapidly reshaping the mortgage technology stack, challenging traditional SaaS and CRM platforms while rewarding lenders that build flexible, AI-enabled operations.

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Allen Pollack, a Mortgage & Financial Services Technology Advisor, is a subject matter expert in the mortgage origination process along with software product management and software development.

In today’s financial services push to all things Digital, Allen has been helping lenders and financial services solution providers align their digital transformation and technology strategies by removing the human element of risk, and automating processes that drive efficiencies and margins into profits.

Over the course of his career, Allen has co-created and developed technology business models that have birthed highly successful, innovative solutions and companies.

Allen co-founded and served as CTO of New York Loan Exchange (NYLX), a loan product eligibility and pricing engine (PPE) that made an immediate impact on the industry, scaling the company quickly and forming partnerships with multiple mortgage and financial lending companies. In 2012, Allen was a co-founder of a merger between NYLX and Aklero Risk Analytics that created LoanLogics, A Mortgage Loan Quality and Performance Analytics company. Allen served as CTO where he continued to bring new and innovative product solutions to the market that made a significant impact to mortgage lenders that reduced risk, scaled business channels, and grew profits in a very competitive and highly regulated market.

Allen is also is mortgage and finance technology contributor on a weekly live industry podcast, Lykken on Lending, and is launching a new podcast soon to be released, TechStack Radio, dedicated to technology and innovation in Financial Services.

Mortgage rates moved lower as weaker employment data and easing Iran tensions supported bonds, but renewed oil volatility and upcoming inflation reports could quickly shift the market’s direction.

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Matt began as an originator in 2002. He fell in love with the idea of following MBS in real-time but felt that existing products were only scratching the surface. Thus was born MBS Live in 2007, the first-of-its-kind platform with real-time market data/analysis, and live chat with analysts, traders, and originators around the country. He is currently the Founder and CEO of MBSLive!

He's been covering bond/mortgage markets, writing commentary, alerts, and chatting with the live community every business hour of every business day ever since.

Matt also serves as the Chief of Operations for mortgagenewsdaily.com, where he is one of the industry's most respected mortgage rate experts, frequently quoted in the media. Mortgage News Daily's rate index is used as the definitive resource on day-to-day mortgage rate averages.

He lives in the Pacific Northwest with his wife and son, where he enjoys skiing, fishing, coaching youth sports, playing the guitar, and more DIY projects/hobbies than he'd care to admit.

This podcast segment examines the CFPB’s potential overhaul of mortgage refinance disclosures, including proposals to eliminate the three-day post-closing rescission waiting period, standardize waiver forms, and reduce unnecessary delays for borrowers and lenders.

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Alice Alvey, Master CMB

Vice President Partner Education and Training at Union Home Mortgage

She handles development of their World Class Training program designed to support UHM partners and organizational effectiveness.

Prior to UHM, Alice served as Senior Vice President at Indecomm leading the Indecomm-Mortgage U division, Internal QA and Compliance and SaaS technologies. Indecomm acquired Mortgage U in 2013, where Alice was President/Co-founder, providing training and consulting since 1996. Prior to MU she served as SVP of Operations at a national bank overseeing operations for wholesale, retail and correspondent from underwriting through servicing, and compliance.

She has been in the trenches of mortgage lending operations from application through servicing for over 30 years. Her authoring work in training content, policies and procedures and the FHA/VA Practical guides illustrates her ability to bridge regulatory requirements with day-to-day operations.

Alice has been a weekly contributor to the Lykken on Lending show since its beginning in April 2009 and has made her weekly contributions to 450+ episodes!

"Little Red Riding Hood" and The Warsh Wolf

Awoo

Bonds see Warsh walking' in the woods. He’s like Little Red Riding Hood!

The Japanese Yen intervention worked. Consequently, Treasuries took a hit as the Dollar sank, and the Euro lost its bullish momentum. Intervention is not the cure, it’s a tourniquet. The cure is a country or economic zone’s solid policies that encourage investment.

Did Warsh decide forward guidance is good? It’s widely reported that Warsh is prepared to raise interest rates in September if inflation goes wild.” He did not show his teeth July because he saw the teeth of others in the mirror.

These views are mine. Understand the howls from Bonds at TMSpotlight.

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Song: Little Red Riding Hood (1966) Sam The Sham & The Pharaohs

The Mortgage Bankers Association is urging the FTC to clarify its proposed AI policy, so financial institutions can meet legal, privacy, security, and consumer protection requirements without those safeguards being considered deceptive AI practices.

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Adam DeSanctis, VP of Communications at Mortgage Bankers Association

As a strategic public affairs and communications executive with nearly two decades of experience, Adam has deep expertise in strategy, management, and media relations. He is widely considered to be an expert in a variety of communications, including advocacy, brand, executive, crisis, grassroots, and social media. In his career, he has been the MBA spokesperson on a wide variety of real estate research and advocacy-related issues, promoted MBA research and advocacy efforts to financial, political, and trade industry media and on MBA's social media channels, and secured media opportunities for MBA leadership on key real estate trends and issues, generated media coverage for MBA's research and data on mortgage applications, credit availability, homebuilder applications, mortgage forbearance/delinquencies, commercial real estate originations, and forecasts, and other industry analysis, developed key strategic initiatives for MBA's organizational public affairs plan, media relations and member communications support for mPower, MBA's Opens Doors Foundation and MBA's Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion program.