Ryan Greenblatt from Redwood Research recently published "Getting 50% on ARC-AGI with GPT-4.0," where he used GPT4o to reach a state-of-the-art accuracy on Francois Chollet's ARC Challenge by generating many Python programs.

Sponsor:

Sign up to Kalshi here https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/mlst -- the first 500 traders who deposit $100 will get a free $20 credit! Important disclaimer - In case it's not obvious - this is basically gambling and a *high risk* activity - only trade what you can afford to lose.

We discuss:

- Ryan's unique approach to solving the ARC Challenge and achieving impressive results.

- The strengths and weaknesses of current AI models.

- How AI and humans differ in learning and reasoning.

- Combining various techniques to create smarter AI systems.

- The potential risks and future advancements in AI, including the idea of agentic AI.

https://x.com/RyanPGreenblatt

https://www.redwoodresearch.org/

Refs:

Getting 50% (SoTA) on ARC-AGI with GPT-4o [Ryan Greenblatt]

https://redwoodresearch.substack.com/p/getting-50-sota-on-arc-agi-with-gpt

On the Measure of Intelligence [Chollet]

https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.01547

Connectionism and Cognitive Architecture: A Critical Analysis [Jerry A. Fodor and Zenon W. Pylyshyn]

https://ruccs.rutgers.edu/images/personal-zenon-pylyshyn/proseminars/Proseminar13/ConnectionistArchitecture.pdf

Software 2.0 [Andrej Karpathy]

https://karpathy.medium.com/software-2-0-a64152b37c35

Why Greatness Cannot Be Planned: The Myth of the Objective [Kenneth Stanley]

https://amzn.to/3Wfy2E0

Biographical account of Terence Tao’s mathematical development. [M.A.(KEN) CLEMENTS]

https://gwern.net/doc/iq/high/smpy/1984-clements.pdf

Model Evaluation and Threat Research (METR)

https://metr.org/

Why Tool AIs Want to Be Agent AIs

https://gwern.net/tool-ai

Simulators - Janus

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vJFdjigzmcXMhNTsx/simulators

AI Control: Improving Safety Despite Intentional Subversion

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/d9FJHawgkiMSPjagR/ai-control-improving-safety-despite-intentional-subversion

https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.06942

What a Compute-Centric Framework Says About Takeoff Speeds

https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/what-a-compute-centric-framework-says-about-takeoff-speeds/

Global GDP over the long run

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-gdp-over-the-long-run?yScale=log

Safety Cases: How to Justify the Safety of Advanced AI Systems

https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.10462

The Danger of a “Safety Case"

http://sunnyday.mit.edu/The-Danger-of-a-Safety-Case.pdf

The Future Of Work Looks Like A UPS Truck (~02:15:50)

https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2014/05/02/308640135/episode-536-the-future-of-work-looks-like-a-ups-truck

SWE-bench

https://www.swebench.com/

Using DeepSpeed and Megatron to Train Megatron-Turing NLG

530B, A Large-Scale Generative Language Model

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2201.11990

Algorithmic Progress in Language Models

https://epochai.org/blog/algorithmic-progress-in-language-models

Aidan Gomez, CEO of Cohere, reveals how they're tackling AI hallucinations and improving reasoning abilities. He also explains why Cohere doesn't use any output from GPT-4 for training their models.

Aidan shares his personal insights into the world of AI and LLMs and Cohere's unique approach to solving real-world business problems, and how their models are set apart from the competition. Aidan reveals how they are making major strides in AI technology, discussing everything from last mile customer engineering to the robustness of prompts and future architectures.

He also touches on the broader implications of AI for society, including potential risks and the role of regulation. He discusses Cohere's guiding principles and the health the of startup scene. With a particular focus on enterprise applications. Aidan provides a rare look into the internal workings of Cohere and their vision for driving productivity and innovation.

https://cohere.com/

https://x.com/aidangomez

Check out Cohere's amazing new Command R* models here

https://cohere.com/command

Disclaimer: This is the second video from our Cohere partnership. We were not told what to say in the interview, and didn't edit anything out from the interview.

The ARC Challenge, created by Francois Chollet, tests how well AI systems can generalize from a few examples in a grid-based intelligence test. We interview the current winners of the ARC Challenge—Jack Cole, Mohammed Osman and their collaborator Michael Hodel. They discuss how they tackled ARC (Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus) using language models. We also discuss the new "50%" public set approach announced today from Redwood Research (Ryan Greenblatt).

Nick Frosst, co-founder of Cohere, on the future of LLMs, and AGI. Learn how Cohere is solving real problems for business with their new AI models.

This is the first podcast from our new Cohere partnership!

Nick talks about his journey at Google Brain, working with AI legends like Geoff Hinton, and the amazing things his company, Cohere, is doing. From creating the must useful language models for businesses to making tools for developers, Nick shares a lot of interesting insights. He even talks about his band, Good Kid! Nick said that RAG is one of the best features of Cohere's new Command R* models. We are about to release a deep-dive on RAG with Patrick Lewis from Cohere, keep an eye out for that - he explains why their models are specifically optimised for RAG use cases.

Learn more about Cohere Command R* models here:

https://cohere.com/commandhttps://github.com/cohere-ai/cohere-toolkit

Nick's band Good Kid:

https://goodkidofficial.com/

Nick on Twitter:

https://x.com/nickfrosst

Disclaimer: We are in a partnership with Cohere to release content for them. We were not told what to say in the interview, and didn't edit anything out from the interview. We are currently planning to release 2 shows per month under the partnership about their AI platform, research and strategy.

These two scientists have mapped out the insides or “reachable space” of a language model using control theory, what they discovered was extremely surprising.

Please support us on Patreon to get access to the private Discord server, bi-weekly calls, early access and ad-free listening.

https://patreon.com/mlst

YT version: https://youtu.be/Bpgloy1dDn0

Aman Bhargava from Caltech and Cameron Witkowski from the University of Toronto to discuss their groundbreaking paper, “What’s the Magic Word? A Control Theory of LLM Prompting.” (the main theorem on self-attention controllability was developed in collaboration with Dr. Shi-Zhuo Looi from Caltech).

They frame LLM systems as discrete stochastic dynamical systems. This means they look at LLMs in a structured way, similar to how we analyze control systems in engineering. They explore the “reachable set” of outputs for an LLM. Essentially, this is the range of possible outputs the model can generate from a given starting point when influenced by different prompts. The research highlights that prompt engineering, or optimizing the input tokens, can significantly influence LLM outputs. They show that even short prompts can drastically alter the likelihood of specific outputs. Aman and Cameron’s work might be a boon for understanding and improving LLMs. They suggest that a deeper exploration of control theory concepts could lead to more reliable and capable language models.

We dropped an additional, more technical video on the research on our Twitter account here: https://x.com/MLStreetTalk/status/1795093759471890606

Additional 20 minutes of unreleased footage on our Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/posts/whats-magic-word-104922629

What's the Magic Word? A Control Theory of LLM Prompting (Aman Bhargava, Cameron Witkowski, Manav Shah, Matt Thomson)

https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.04444

LLM Control Theory Seminar (April 2024)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9QtS9sVBFM0

Society for the pursuit of AGI (Cameron founded it)

https://agisociety.mydurable.com/

Roger Federer demo

http://conway.languagegame.io/inference

Neural Cellular Automata, Active Inference, and the Mystery of Biological Computation (Aman)

https://aman-bhargava.com/ai/neuro/neuromorphic/2024/03/25/nca-do-active-inference.html

Aman and Cameron also want to thank Dr. Shi-Zhuo Looi and Prof. Matt Thomson from from Caltech for help and advice on their research. (https://thomsonlab.caltech.edu/ and https://pma.caltech.edu/people/looi-shi-zhuo)

https://x.com/ABhargava2000

https://x.com/witkowski_cam

Maria Santacaterina, with her background in the humanities, brings a critical perspective on the current state and future implications of AI technology, its impact on society, and the nature of human intelligence and creativity. She emphasizes that despite technological advancements, AI lacks fundamental human traits such as consciousness, empathy, intuition, and the ability to engage in genuine creative processes. Maria argues that AI, at its core, processes data but does not have the capability to understand or generate new, intrinsic meaning or ideas as humans do.

Throughout the conversation, Maria highlights her concern about the overreliance on AI in critical sectors such as healthcare, the justice system, and business. She stresses that while AI can serve as a tool, it should not replace human judgment and decision-making. Maria points out that AI systems often operate on past data, which may lead to outdated or incorrect decisions if not carefully managed.

The discussion also touches upon the concept of "adaptive resilience", which Maria describes in her book. She explains adaptive resilience as the capacity for individuals and enterprises to evolve and thrive amidst challenges by leveraging technology responsibly, without undermining human values and capabilities.

A significant portion of the conversation focussed on ethical considerations surrounding AI. Tim and Maria agree that there's a pressing need for strong governance and ethical frameworks to guide AI development and deployment. They discuss how AI, without proper ethical considerations, risks exacerbating issues like privacy invasion, misinformation, and unintended discrimination.

Maria is skeptical about claims of achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) or a technological singularity where machines surpass human intelligence in all aspects. She argues that such scenarios neglect the complex, dynamic nature of human intelligence and consciousness, which cannot be fully replicated or replaced by machines.

Tim and Maria discuss the importance of keeping human agency and creativity at the forefront of technology development. Maria asserts that efforts to automate or standardize complex human actions and decisions are misguided and could lead to dehumanizing outcomes. They both advocate for using AI as an aid to enhance human capabilities rather than a substitute.

In closing, Maria encourages a balanced approach to AI adoption, urging stakeholders to prioritize human well-being, ethical standards, and societal benefit above mere technological advancement. The conversation ends with Maria pointing people to her book for more in-depth analysis and thoughts on the future interaction between humans and technology.

Buy Maria's book here: https://amzn.to/4avF6kq

https://www.linkedin.com/in/mariasantacaterina

TOC

00:00:00 - Intro to Book

00:03:23 - What Life Is

00:10:10 - Agency

00:18:04 - Tech and Society

00:21:51 - System 1 and 2

00:22:59 - We Are Being Pigeonholed

00:30:22 - Agency vs Autonomy

00:36:37 - Explanations

00:40:24 - AI Reductionism

00:49:50 - How Are Humans Intelligent

01:00:22 - Semantics

01:01:53 - Emotive AI and Pavlovian Dogs

01:04:05 - Technology, Social Media and Organisation

01:18:34 - Systems Are Not That Automated

01:19:33 - Hiring

01:22:34 - Subjectivity in Orgs

01:32:28 - The AGI Delusion

01:45:37 - GPT-laziness Syndrome

01:54:58 - Diversity Preservation

01:58:24 - Ethics

02:11:43 - Moral Realism

02:16:17 - Utopia

02:18:02 - Reciprocity

02:20:52 - Tyranny of Categorisation

Thomas Parr and his collaborators wrote a book titled "Active Inference: The Free Energy Principle in Mind, Brain and Behavior" which introduces Active Inference from both a high-level conceptual perspective and a low-level mechanistic, mathematical perspective.

Active inference, developed by the legendary neuroscientist Prof. Karl Friston - is a unifying mathematical framework which frames living systems as agents which minimize surprise and free energy in order to resist entropy and persist over time. It unifies various perspectives from physics, biology, statistics, and psychology - and allows us to explore deep questions about agency, biology, causality, modelling, and consciousness.

Buy Active Inference: The Free Energy Principle in Mind, Brain, and Behavior

https://amzn.to/4dj0iMj

YT version: https://youtu.be/lbb-Si5wa_o

Please support us on Patreon to get access to the private Discord server, bi-weekly calls, early access and ad-free listening.

https://patreon.com/mlst

Chapters should be embedded in the mp3, let me me know if issues

Connor is the CEO of Conjecture and one of the most famous names in the AI alignment movement. This is the "behind the scenes footage" and bonus Patreon interviews from the day of the Beff Jezos debate, including an interview with Daniel Clothiaux. It's a great insight into Connor's philosophy. At the end there is an unreleased additional interview with Beff.

Support MLST:

Please support us on Patreon. We are entirely funded from Patreon donations right now. Patreon supports get private discord access, biweekly calls, very early-access + exclusive content and lots more.

https://patreon.com/mlst

Donate: https://www.paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=K2TYRVPBGXVNA

If you would like to sponsor us, so we can tell your story - reach out on mlstreettalk at gmail

Topics:

Externalized cognition and the role of society and culture in human intelligence

The potential for AI systems to develop agency and autonomy

The future of AGI as a complex mixture of various components

The concept of agency and its relationship to power

The importance of coherence in AI systems

The balance between coherence and variance in exploring potential upsides

The role of dynamic, competent, and incorruptible institutions in handling risks and developing technology

Concerns about AI widening the gap between the haves and have-nots

The concept of equal access to opportunity and maintaining dynamism in the system

Leahy's perspective on life as a process that "rides entropy"

The importance of distinguishing between epistemological, decision-theoretic, and aesthetic aspects of morality (inc ref to Hume's Guillotine)

The concept of continuous agency and the idea that the first AGI will be a messy admixture of various components

The potential for AI systems to become more physically embedded in the future

The challenges of aligning AI systems and the societal impacts of AI technologies like ChatGPT and Bing

The importance of humility in the face of complexity when considering the future of AI and its societal implications

Disclaimer: this video is not an endorsement of e/acc or AGI agential existential risk from us - the hosts of MLST consider both of these views to be quite extreme. We seek diverse views on the channel.

00:00:00 Intro

00:00:56 Connor's Philosophy

00:03:53 Office Skit

00:05:08 Connor on e/acc and Beff

00:07:28 Intro to Daniel's Philosophy

00:08:35 Connor on Entropy, Life, and Morality

00:19:10 Connor on London

00:20:21 Connor Office Interview

00:20:46 Friston Patreon Preview

00:21:48 Why Are We So Dumb?

00:23:52 The Voice of the People, the Voice of God / Populism

00:26:35 Mimetics

00:30:03 Governance

00:33:19 Agency

00:40:25 Daniel Interview - Externalised Cognition, Bing GPT, AGI

00:56:29 Beff + Connor Bonus Patreons Interview

Professor Chris Bishop is a Technical Fellow and Director at Microsoft Research AI4Science, in Cambridge. He is also Honorary Professor of Computer Science at the University of Edinburgh, and a Fellow of Darwin College, Cambridge. In 2004, he was elected Fellow of the Royal Academy of Engineering, in 2007 he was elected Fellow of the Royal Society of Edinburgh, and in 2017 he was elected Fellow of the Royal Society. Chris was a founding member of the UK AI Council, and in 2019 he was appointed to the Prime Minister’s Council for Science and Technology.

At Microsoft Research, Chris oversees a global portfolio of industrial research and development, with a strong focus on machine learning and the natural sciences.

Chris obtained a BA in Physics from Oxford, and a PhD in Theoretical Physics from the University of Edinburgh, with a thesis on quantum field theory.

Chris's contributions to the field of machine learning have been truly remarkable. He has authored (what is arguably) the original textbook in the field - 'Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning' (PRML) which has served as an essential reference for countless students and researchers around the world, and that was his second textbook after his highly acclaimed first textbook Neural Networks for Pattern Recognition.

Recently, Chris has co-authored a new book with his son, Hugh, titled 'Deep Learning: Foundations and Concepts.' This book aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the key ideas and techniques underpinning the rapidly evolving field of deep learning. It covers both the foundational concepts and the latest advances, making it an invaluable resource for newcomers and experienced practitioners alike.

Buy Chris' textbook here:

https://amzn.to/3vvLcCh

More about Prof. Chris Bishop:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Bishop

https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/people/cmbishop/

Support MLST:

Please support us on Patreon. We are entirely funded from Patreon donations right now. Patreon supports get private discord access, biweekly calls, early-access + exclusive content and lots more.

https://patreon.com/mlst

Donate: https://www.paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=K2TYRVPBGXVNA

If you would like to sponsor us, so we can tell your story - reach out on mlstreettalk at gmail

TOC:

00:00:00 - Intro to Chris

00:06:54 - Changing Landscape of AI

00:08:16 - Symbolism

00:09:32 - PRML

00:11:02 - Bayesian Approach

00:14:49 - Are NNs One Model or Many, Special vs General

00:20:04 - Can Language Models Be Creative

00:22:35 - Sparks of AGI

00:25:52 - Creativity Gap in LLMs

00:35:40 - New Deep Learning Book

00:39:01 - Favourite Chapters

00:44:11 - Probability Theory

00:45:42 - AI4Science

00:48:31 - Inductive Priors

00:58:52 - Drug Discovery

01:05:19 - Foundational Bias Models

01:07:46 - How Fundamental Is Our Physics Knowledge?

01:12:05 - Transformers

01:12:59 - Why Does Deep Learning Work?

01:16:59 - Inscrutability of NNs

01:18:01 - Example of Simulator

01:21:09 - Control

Dr. Philip Ball is a freelance science writer. He just wrote a book called "How Life Works", discussing the how the science of Biology has advanced in the last 20 years. We focus on the concept of Agency in particular.

He trained as a chemist at the University of Oxford, and as a physicist at the University of Bristol. He worked previously at Nature for over 20 years, first as an editor for physical sciences and then as a consultant editor. His writings on science for the popular press have covered topical issues ranging from cosmology to the future of molecular biology.

YT: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n6nxUiqiz9I

Transcript link on YT description

Philip is the author of many popular books on science, including H2O: A Biography of Water, Bright Earth: The Invention of Colour, The Music Instinct and Curiosity: How Science Became Interested in Everything. His book Critical Mass won the 2005 Aventis Prize for Science Books, while Serving the Reich was shortlisted for the Royal Society Winton Science Book Prize in 2014.

This is one of Tim's personal favourite MLST shows, so we have designated it a special edition. Enjoy!

Buy Philip's book "How Life Works" here: https://amzn.to/3vSmNqp

Support MLST: