The Conference Board isn’t expecting a recession, but Yelena Shulyatyeva, the research group’s senior US economist, anticipates a meaningful slowdown in consumer spending. On this Macro Matters podcast, Shulyatyeva joins host Ira Jersey, BI’s chief US rates strategist, and BI senior US and Canada rates strategist Will Hoffman to discuss the outlook for the US economy and its drivers in 2026. They talk about risks to the inflation profile, including the state of pass-through inflation from tariffs, and the path for core services. They also hit on AI’s directional impact to productivity, geopolitical risks and potential shifts to Federal Reserve independence narratives. 

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.