Macro Minutes

The weather isn't the only thing heating up; North American central banks are expected to deliver large rate increases in July and the ECB should hike for the first time since 2011, while August should see sizeable rate hikes in the UK and Australia. Will the heat from rate hikes suffocate economies and markets?

Participants: 

• Jason Daw (Desk strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Startegy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Adam Cole (Desk Strategy), Chief Currency Strategist
• Adam Jones (Trading), Head of US Credit Algo Trading

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

We continue in an ebb and flow between market focus on inflation and growth risks, with the latter taking more prominence in recent sessions as concerns that a recession is coming spike. With inflation still not having peaked and central bank concerns on inflation expectations elevated, is such a shift too soon?

Participants: 

• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategy
• Daniel Rico (Desk Strategy), Latin America FX Strategist
• Lori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S Equity Strategy
• Tom Porcelli (Research), Chief US Economist
• Michael Tran (Research), Global Energy Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

After markets started to shift attention towards growth risks, hawkish central banks and still elevated inflation have re-focused attention on inflation risks and spiked volatility once again. RBC's rates, FX and volatility experts discuss the specifics and implications of recent developments.

Participants: 

• Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategy
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Amy Wu Silverman (Desk Strategy), Head of Equity Derivatives Strategy
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy
• Robert Thompson (Research), Macro Rates Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Markets have sharply reserved course. Is this the start of a new trend, a consolidation phase, or just a pause before past trends resume? In this episode, RBC’s rates, FX, equity, and credit experts opine on this critical topic.

Participants: 

• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North American Rates Strategy
• Adam Cole (Desk Strategy), Chief Currency Strategist
• Lori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity Strategy
• Adam Jones (Trading), Head of US Credit Algo Trading
• George Davis (Desk Strategy), Chief Technical Strategist, FICC

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Participants: 

• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North American Rates Strategy
• Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategy
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Adam Cole (Desk Strategy), Chief Currency Strategist
• Amy Wu Silverman (Desk Strategy), Head of Equity Derivatives Strategy
• Michael Tran (Research), Global Energy Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Central banks Strike Back! There are clear parallels (rates vol, inflation uncertainty, aggressive central bank tightening) to the early 1980's when Volcker raised rates at all costs to control inflation. In this episode, RBC experts opine on the macro landscape, fixed income, currencies, and credit markets.

Participants: 

• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North American Rates Strategy
• Tom Porcelli (Research), Chief US Economist
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Su-Lin Ong (Research), Chief AU Economist
• Daria Parkhomenko (Trading), FX Strategist
• Adam Cole (Trading), Head of US Credit Algo Trading

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Bond markets have gone wild - the sell-off has intensified and the new dimension of the move higher in rates has been dramatic curve steepening. In this episode, RBC experts discuss what it means for bond markets (levels, curve, volatility), currencies, the equity market and equity volatility landscape.

Participants: 

• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North American Rates Strategy
• Tom Porcelli (Research), Chief US Economist
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Adam Cole (Desk Strategy), Chief Currency Strategist
• Lori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity Strategy
• Amy Wu Silverman (Desk Strategy), Head of Equity Derivatives Strategy

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Global central banks continue to shift more hawkish, but can lofty market pricing for tightening be realized? What are the risks and opportunities in the current backdrop? RBC global rates experts delve into these issues, while FX and energy specialists discuss the latest developments in their markets.

Participants: 

• Tom Porcelli (Research), Chief US Economist
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy
• Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist
• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North American Rates Strategy
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Su-Lin Ong (Research), Chief AU Economist
• Michael Tran (Research), Global Energy Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

A hawkish Fed added fuel to the bond market sell off, which is having repercussions across global asset markets. In this episode, RBC experts discuss how these developments will affect central bank policies, yield curves, FX, and credit markets.

Participants: 

• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North American Rates Strategy
• Tom Porcelli (Research), Chief US Economist
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist
• Adam Cole (Desk Strategy), Chief Currency Strategist
• Robert Thomson (Desk Strategy), Macro Rates Strategist
• Jason Mandel (Desk Strategy), Head of Leveraged Finance Desk Strategy

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is having a pervasive impact on global economies and financial markets.

Participants: 

• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North American Rates Strategy
• Helima Croft (Research), Head of Commodity Strategy & MENA Research
• Peter Schaffrik (Research), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy
• Tom Porcelli (Research), Chief US Economist
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts