Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes

Change is inevitable, and so is our beloved predictions episode. As always, Mark Leonard and ECFR’s research director Jeremy Shapiro start the year off by revisiting the ten predictions they made last year and then look into their crystal ball at the forces that will shape the upcoming one. Their predictions for 2023 left them with a score of 7/10. Will they do better this year? Let us know if you think they missed something! You can write your own predictions to [email protected]. This podcast was recorded on 9 January 2024

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This month, ECFR’s Africa Forum brought together African and European policymakers and thinkers for discussions on the two continents’ strategic partnerships in the changing global order. In this new episode, Jeremy Shapiro welcomes the head of ECFR’s Africa programme, Theo Murphy. They are joined by ECFR visiting fellow, Adebayo Olukoshi, who is a distinguished research professor at the Witts School of Governance in South Africa; and Brian Kagoro, managing director of programmes at the Open Society Foundations. How do Africans view Europe and the EU’s role in the world? What steps can Europeans take to improve their relationships in Africa? Which powers are competing with Europeans for attention in Africa? And what is the EU’s unique selling proposition?This episode was recorded on 12 December, 2023.Bookshelf:Keepers of the Flame: Understanding Amnesty InternationalThe First Black Slave Society: Britain’s “Barbarity Time” in Barbados, 1636-1876 | Hilary McD. Beckles

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Going into the holiday season, the mood among Ukraine’s supporters far from festive. It is difficult to escape a sense that general war fatigue is kicking in, as Europeans bicker over military aid, dysfunction paralyses the US Congress, and the war in Gaza continues to hog the world’s attention. What is more, the frontiers of the Ukraine war have barely budged since last year.In this week’s episode, Jeremy Shapiro welcomes Michael Kofman, senior fellow at Carnegie Endowment’s Russia and Eurasia programme, and Gustav Gressel, senior policy fellow at ECFR. What is the current state of the war? Whatever happened to Ukraine’s much-heralded counteroffensive? And what steps can the West take to help Ukraine prepare for what 2024 might have in store?This episode was recorded on 4 December, 2023Bookshelf:The Seven Moons of Maali Almeida by Shehan KarunatilakaBefore the West. The Rise and Fall of Eastern World Orders by Ayşe Zarakol

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Second only to the United States, the Gulf countries have emerged as key players in the Israel-Hamas war. Qatar has been a crucial go-between in negotiating the recent hostage return and seven-day ceasefire, but has also come under fire for its chummy relationship with Hamas. The United Arab Emirates, for its part, has maintained a studious neutrality and appears more keen on preserving economic ties with Israel than getting pulled into the conflict. And as the region’s biggest player, Saudi Arabia could still play a decisive role in bringing Israelis and Palestinians to the negotiating table after the war ends (at least the Biden administration hopes so). What is at stake for the Gulf? And is there a constructive role for the region’s countries to play as Israel continues its fight against Hamas amid mounting international criticism?In this week’s episode, Jeremy Shapiro welcomes ECFR visiting fellow, Cinzia Bianco, and senior policy fellow, Hugh Lovatt to discuss the role of the Persian Gulf in the ongoing conflict in Gaza.This podcast was recorded during the Doha Forum on 8 December 2023.Bookshelf:Emperor of Rome: Ruling the Ancient Roman World | Mary Beard Seeking Stability Amidst Disorder: The Foreign Policies of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, 2010-20 | Tobias Borck

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“Digital empires” – the geopolitical entities that wield their influence and control in the digital landscape – shape much of how we interact with the online world. Currently, the United States, China, and the European Union are taking the lead, with their substantial investments in technology, innovation, and digital infrastructure, and their efforts to shape and regulate the digital economy. In this week’s episode, Jeremy Shapiro welcomes Anu Bradford, author and Henry L. Moses professor of law and international organization at Columbia University, to discuss her new book “Digital Empires: The Global Battle to Regulate Technology”. In it, she argues that the global regulatory battle between the US, China, and the EU is intensifying, as they try to rein in powerful tech companies while attempting to expand their influence in the digital world. What role do the companies being regulated have to play? Do they have any agency in this great regulatory game? What about the rest of the world’s digital influence? Bookshelf: Digital Empires: The Global Battle to Regulate Technology | Anu BradfordSlow horses - Apple TV

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The West perceives Russians as either indifferent or supportive of the war being waged on their doorstep. But a sharp decrease in on-the-ground reporting since February 2022 means that the country has become poorly understood.In this week’s episode, Jeremy Shapiro welcomes senior policy fellow Kadri Liik and Valerie Hopkins, an international correspondent for The New York Times covering the war in Ukraine as well as Russia and the countries of the former Soviet Union. Together, they discuss how Russian society really sees the war in Ukraine. How long will Putin be able to sustain the war effort while keeping public dissent to a minimum? And three months after disposing of Prigozhin, how solid is Putin’s grip on power?Bookshelf:War and Punishment | Mikhail Zygar In Different Years | Anatoly Adamishin

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Since the war in Gaza, Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has raised eyebrows among his Western allies for his strident criticism of Israel and refusal to condemn Hamas. Likewise, the atmosphere in Turkey has been heated, with attempts to storm an airbase hosting US troops as well as the Israeli consulate in Istanbul.In this week’s episode, Jeremy Shapiro welcomes senior policy fellow Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institute, and Dimitar Bechev, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and the director of the European Policy Institute in Sofia. Together, they look beyond the heated rhetoric and street politics and discuss what the war means for Turkey’s foreign policy. Where do Israel-Turkey relations stand now? Could Turkey play a role similar to Qatar’s? How are US officials reacting to Turkey’s response?This podcast was recorded on 21 November 2023. Bookshelf: Odessa: Genius and Death in a City of Dreams | Charles KingAmerican Prometheus: The Triumph and Tragedy of J. Robert Oppenheimer | Kai Bird, Martin J. SherwinVirtual Politics: Faking Democracy in the Post-Soviet World | Andrew Wilson

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ECFR’s new global opinion poll reveals that many people outside the West want Europe and the US in their lives for all they have to offer – but that does not translate into full political alignment. In this week’s episode, ECFR’s research director Jeremy Shapiro welcomes council member Timothy Garton Ash, who is a bestselling author and professor of European studies at Oxford University; Ivan Krastev, who is a founding board member of ECFR and chairman of the Centre for Liberal Strategies in Sofia; and ECFR’s director Mark Leonard to discuss how public sentiment can guide Europe in building partnerships for the world of tomorrow. What is the basis for the West’s soft power? What sort of offer is China making the world? And whom do countries in the ‘global south’ prefer when faced with a choice between the West and China?This podcast was recorded on 7 November 2023.Bookshelf:Places of Mind: A Life of Edward Said | Timothy BrennanEnvironmental Political Theory | Steve VanderheidenLes Aveuglés, comment Berlin et Paris ont laissé la voie libre à la Russie | Sylvie KauffmannLiberalism against Itself: Cold War Intellectuals and the Making of Our Times | Samuel MoynYou Report to Me: Accountability for the Failing Administrative State | David Bernhardt

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For Kyiv, the war in Gaza couldn’t have come at a worse time. It has taken the global spotlight just as the fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces has reached a stalemate (as top Ukrainian general Valery Zaluzhny wrote in The Economist last week) and division in the US Congress threatens to sever its military aid lifeline.In this week’s episode, Jeremy Shapiro, ECFR’s research director, seizing control from Mark Leonard over the next few weeks, welcomes Gustav Gressel, senior policy fellow with the Wider Europe Programme focusing on Russia, and Kirill Shamiev, visiting fellow and expert in Russia’s civil-military relations, domestic politics, and policymaking.Together, they discuss the consequences of the war in Gaza for the war effort in Ukraine. How has the Ukrainian government responded to this new crisis? What consequences will it have for the Ukraine war? And what can Europe do to manage an ever-growing list of crises in its neighbourhood?This podcast was recorded on 6 November 2023.

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On 5 November 2024, America will elect its next president. As of now, the race for the White House is shaping up to be a replay of the 2020 presidential election – with Joe Biden and Donald Trump standing out as the likely candidates for their opposing parties. This time around, however, the United States’ engagement in the Middle East and in Ukraine, coupled with its global competition with China, could play a significant role in defining the outcome of the election. In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes ECFR’s research director Jeremy Shapiro, who is also the director of ECFR’s brand new US programme, and senior policy fellow Majda Ruge, who has worked extensively on US politics. Together, they discuss what America’s foreign policy could look like after the 2024 election and how Europe could engage proactively with the next US president. What should we expect from a second Biden presidency? Or from a second Trump presidency? What should Europeans do to plan ahead? And how can ECFR’s new US programme help them do so?This podcast was recorded on 1 November 2023.Bookshelf:The Wizard of the Kremlin: A Novel | Giuliano da Empoli

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