Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes

It has been a rocky month for German defence policy. With a naval frigate almost shooting down a US drone in the Red Sea by mistake, discussions of military officers on the deployment of Taurus missiles leaking, and Olaf Scholz and Emmanuel Macron openly arguing about military aid to Ukraine, Germany’s policy on European defence is embroiled in internal and external intrigue. 

In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes senior policy fellow Ulrike Franke and senior policy fellow and head of ECFR’s Berlin Office, Jana Puglierin, to discuss the current state of Germany’s policy on the war in Ukraine and European defence. What does the recent turmoil say about Germany’s strategic culture and its so-called Zeitenwende? What are the sources of tension for Franco-German defence relations? And how much potential does the attempted revival of the Weimar triangle between Berlin, Paris, and Warsaw have for agreeing on a common path forward? 

This episode was recorded on 18 March 2024 

Bookshelf: 

Zeitenwende: The Bundeswehr’s Paradigm Shift by Léo Péria-Peigné and Elie Tenenbaum 

Breaking Bad – an AMC television series  

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A few years ago decoupling was all the rage, but Western economies are now moving towards de-risking as they strive to reduce their economic reliance on China. A United States keen to preserve its technological superiority leads the way – and aims to bring its allies along for the ride.

In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes ECFR senior policy fellow, Agathe Demarais, and senior director at risk advisory firm Global Counsel, Stephen Adams, to discuss de-risking and its impact on European countries and the global economy. Where did the phrase originate? What does de-risking mean in practice? And what does an economic landscape conditioned by de-risking look like?

Bookshelf:

Underground Empire, by Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman

State of Emergency: Britain, 1970-1974, by Dominic Sandbrook

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The death toll in Gaza now exceeds 30,000. Five months into the war, much of the sympathy the international community had for Israel following the 7 October attacks has evaporated amid such violence and destruction.

In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes senior policy fellow Hugh Lovatt, director of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme Julien Barnes-Dacey, and research director and director of ECFR’s new US programme Jeremy Shapiro. Together, they discuss the current situation in Gaza and how the war could create the opportunity for a “grand bargain” which could unblock the previously stuck status quo and solve the decades-long Arab-Israeli conflict. How likely is it that there will be a ceasefire in time for Ramadan? How are US and European governments responding to the war? And what are the odds that we could end up with a grand bargain that results in a two-state solution?

This episode was recorded on 7 March 2024.

Bookshelf:

The Gaza Crisis: Mapping the Middle East's Shifting Battle Lines by Hugh Lovatt, Julien Barnes-Dacey and Cinzia Bianco

The Secret World: A History of Intelligence by Christopher Andrew

Crash Landing on You – a tvN television series

The Imperfectionists by Tom Rachman

Gaza: A History by Jean-Pierre Filiu

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The conflict in Ukraine has crystallised into a war of attrition. As military losses pile up on both sides, Russia could take advantage of this year’s electoral uncertainty in the West to strike a settlement deal on its terms. To ensure a durable peace, Europeans must make clear what red lines Moscow is not allowed to cross. And the history of the cold war may provide Europeans with some valuable lessons on how to do that.

In this episode, Mark Leonard welcomes ECFR’s board member Ivan Krastev, who is the chairman of the Centre for Liberal Strategies in Sofia and a permanent fellow at Vienna’s Institute for Human Sciences. Together they discuss how NATO accession could strengthen Kyiv’s negotiating position vis-à-vis Russia and if it could enforce the West’s red lines in Ukraine in the same way as it did in West Germany almost 70 years ago. How should the West approach negotiations with Moscow? What is the de-escalation potential of Ukraine’s NATO membership? How can Europeans ensure a durable peace on the continent?

This podcast was recorded on 23 February 2024.

Bookshelf:

How Civil Wars Start by Barbara F. Walter

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Tomorrow the war in Ukraine will enter its third year. Kyiv’s counteroffensive has proved much less successful than the Ukrainian government had hoped. And as Western support threatens to dry up, Ukraine’s setbacks are mounting. Last weekend, while speaking at the Munich Security Conference, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky was forced to admit that the town of Avdiivka in the Donetsk region had fallen to the Russians, which he blamed on a lack of ammunition and, by implication, on a lack of Western support.

In this episode, Mark Leonard welcomes senior policy fellow Gustav Gressel and ECFR’s research director Jeremy Shapiro, who also heads our new US programme, to understand which factors will determine the course of the war in the coming year. Who does the current status quo most benefit? Could Ukraine’s recent setbacks and Navalny’s death encourage more Western support for Kyiv? And what impact will elections in Europe and the US have?

This podcast was recorded on 21 February 2024.

Bookshelf:

The Secret World: A History of Intelligence by Christopher Andrew

Wars and elections: How European leaders can maintain public support for Ukraine by Mark Leonard and Ivan Krastev

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In the past weeks, Donald Trump caused alarm bells to go off in the European capitals, stating that he would “encourage” Russia to punish his European NATO allies that do not reach the spending requirements, were he elected US president for the second time. Shortly after, Estonian intelligence revealed Russia has plans to beef up its military presence near Finland and the Baltic states.

In this episode, recorded live from the Munich Security Conference, Mark Leonard welcomes ECFR board member Arancha González Laya, former Spanish foreign minister and current dean of the Paris School of International Affairs, along with distinguished policy fellow Camille Grand, who leads ECFR’s brand new defence initiative. Together, they discuss how Europeans can prepare for a second Trump presidency. What dangers does a second Trump term hold for Europe? How should it respond if Trump abandons Ukraine on his first day in office? What consequences will America’s gradual disengagement have for Europe’s role in the world?

This podcast was recorded during the Munich Security Conference (16-18 February 2024)

Bookshelf:

The Divider, Trump in the White House, 2017-2021 by Peter Baker and Susan Glasser

Les Aveuglés, comment Berlin et Paris ont laissé la voie libre à la Russie by Sylvie Kauffmann

Foolproof: Why Misinformation Infects Our Minds and How to Build Immunity by Sander van der Linden

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With the United States’ presidential election just a few months away, the stakes go far beyond domestic politics. The results will decide the future of American foreign policy, at least for the next four years. In the corridors of power in Washington, US policymakers will need to adapt to a new leadership and navigate the complexities of today’s international system accordingly.

In this episode, Mark Leonard welcomes political scientist Joseph Nye, who served as the former assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs and chair of the national intelligence council during Bill Clinton’s first presidency. He is also the former Dean of the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University and co-founder to the international relations theory of neoliberalism. Together, they discuss Nye’s new book “A Life in the American Century”. Are there similarities between today’s great power competition and the days of the cold war? Should we be optimistic about America’s (and by extension, the West’s) long-term prospects? Where is China headed?

This podcast was recorded on 7 February 2024.

Bookshelf:

A Life in the American Century | Joseph Nye

Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology | Chris Miller

Overreach: How China Derailed Its Peaceful Rise | Susan L. Shirk

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Facing a major war in Europe, as well as an expanding conflict in the Middle East, it is increasingly important for European leaders to meet the security challenges of tomorrow. This week, the inaugural event of ECFR’s new defence initiative brought together a strategic community of leaders and practitioners to think creatively and practically about how Europe can strengthen its role as a geopolitical actor and global power

From the event in Brussels, Mark Leonard welcomes distinguished policy fellow Camille Grand, who is the former assistant secretary general for defence investment at NATO and is now leading ECFR’s work on defence and disruptive technologies in European security. Together, they discuss where Europe’s defence sector is headed. What is the current state of play? How can NATO and the EU work together while avoiding duplication? What should Europeans be doing to plan for the day when they can no longer depend on US security guarantees?

This podcast was recorded on 1 February 2024.

Bookshelf:

Les Aveuglés, comment Berlin et Paris ont laissé la voie libre à la Russie | Sylvie Kauffmann

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Two weeks ago, the United States and the United Kingdom launched airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen in response to the group’s continued attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. While the intervention degraded some of the Houthis’ military capabilities, the airstrikes were insufficient to sustainably secure the Red Sea and encourage a return of international shipping. Meanwhile, the Houthis have vowed to continue with their attacks, claiming to act in solidarity with Gaza.

In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes visiting fellow Cinzia Bianco, an expert in the Gulf region, and Theodore Murphy, director of ECFR’s Africa programme. Together, they discuss the crisis in the Red Sea and its escalation potential. What are the Houthis’s motivations? How have countries on the Red Sea reacted to the crisis? What makes the Red Sea such a geopolitical tinderbox, and what should Europe’s role be?

This podcast was recorded on 25 January 2024.

Bookshelf:

Yemen in Crisis: The Road to War | Helen Lackner

To Rule the Waves: How Control of the World's Oceans Shapes the Fate of the Superpowers | Bruce Jones

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