On Wednesday afternoon, the German Social Democrats, the FDP and the Greens presented their coalition agreement. The long-awaited deal sets out the roadmap for the “traffic light” government for the upcoming four years led by Olaf Scholz (SPD). In this episode, Mark Leonard and ECFR senior policy fellows Janka Oertel and Jana Puglierin take a deep dive into the 170+ page-long document: what does it say about foreign policy issues, China, defence and security? What is in there about the future of Europe? And how do we see the transatlantic relationship developing in the new coalition?This podcast was recorded on 24 November 2021Further reading:Coalition treaty [in DE]: https://buff.ly/2ZpvyIt Germany announces coalition agreement | DW News Live: https://buff.ly/3cOmBeCWhat’s in the German coalition deal for Europe (and the UK) | Politico: https://buff.ly/3cQX6tepicture (c) Paul Lovis Wagner | Campact

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At the beginning of this week, NATO warned about an ‘unusual’ concentration of Russian forces close to the Ukraine border. So far, the Kremlin has dismissed the warning as “alarmist” while the US alerted allies about the possibility of Moscow preparing for a possible invasion of Ukraine. Mark Leonard is joined by Marie Dumoulin the new director of our Wider Europe programme, in her first week on the job, and ECFR Senior policy fellows Gustav Gressel and Kadri Liik to talk about the Russian military built up on Ukraine´s borders: how serious is the situation? And what should - and should not NATO do about it?This podcast has been recorded 17 November 2021.Further reading:Russia’s military movements: What they could mean for Ukraine, Europe, and NATO by Gustav Gressel https://ecfr.eu/article/russias-military-movements-what-they-could-mean-for-ukraine-europe-and-nato/ Bookshelf:• “Ukraine: Putin’s unfinished business” by Eugen Rumer & Andrew Weiss • “Russia in Global Affairs“, Volume 19, No. 3, Jul-Sept 2021• “Practical political science. A guide to getting in touch with reality” by Ekaterina Schulmann [in RU] Picture © picture alliance / AA | Ukrainian Presidency / Handout

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In the recent months, the EU and especially Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, have all seen an increasing number of people trying to enter their countries from Belarus. An estimated 2,000 migrants are said to be stranded at the Belarus border with Poland at the moment. But how did we get here? Host Mark Leonard talks to ECFR policy fellow Pawel Zerka and visiting fellow Pavel Slunkin about the situation on the ground. Moreover, we asked Kelly Greenhill, 2020-21 Leverhulme Trust visiting professor at SOAS, to explain what coercive engineered migration is and how successful it is. Is Belarus’s president Alexander Lukashenka’s act of revenge for EU sanctions and criticism working? What would be the best way for the EU to respond to Minsk’s tactics? This podcast was recorded on 10 November 2021.Further reading:• "No quiet on the eastern front: The migration crisis engineered by Belarus" by Gustav Gressel, Joanna Hosa & Pavel Slunkin: https://buff.ly/3EYVidF • "How half-hearted sanctions put the future of Belarus at risk" by Pawel Zerka: https://buff.ly/3imsSBHBookshelf:• "Madam Secretary" by Madeleine Albright • "Belarusians’ views on the political crisis" by Chatham House • "EU sanctions on Belarus as an effective policy tool" by Anders Åslund & Jan Hagemeier in Belarus Insight 02/2021• "On consolation: finding solace in dark times" by Michael Ignatieff Photo © picture alliance / ASSOCIATED PRESS | Leonid Shcheglov

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Negotiations of the 26th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP26) are underway in Glasgow. This week, host Mark Leonard speaks with Lykke Friis, ECFR board member and director of the Danish Think Tank Europa and former minister for climate and energy of Denmark; Susi Dennison, head of ECFR’s European power programme; and Alex Clark, researcher at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment at the University of Oxford and ECFR visiting fellow. Together, they analyse the prospects of success at COP26 and particularly what role the European Union can and should play. Is the EU in a position to deliver a green grand bargain, or is its role as peripheral now as it was at COP15? This podcast was recorded on 3 November 2021.Further reading;Climate of cooperation: How the EU can help deliver a green grand bargain by Alex Clark, Susi Dennison, and Mats Engström: https://buff.ly/3BrI9HPLast chance for Global Climate Leadership in Glasgow? Event with Lykke Friis, Susi Dennison, Dan Joergensen, and Lars Aagaard: https://buff.ly/3bOmRd5

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This week, Mark Leonard answers your most burning questions about his newly released book, “The Age of Unpeace: How Connectivity causes Conflict”. Hosted by ECFR’s head of communications, Ana Ramic, the special Ask Me Anything episode features Mark responding to loyal podcast listeners Zebulon Carlander, Robert Cooper, Teresa Gouveia, Antonio Notario, Jonas Parello-Plesner, Timi Okoya, and Patrycja Sasnal. This episode was recorded on 22 October 2021 **and contains spoilers**! Thanks to everybody who submitted questions! Listen to a sneak-peak: https://soundcloud.com/ecfr/sneak-peek-age-of-unpeace-mark-leonard Learn more about “The Age of Unpeace”: • Podcast with Mark Leonard & Janka Oertel: https://soundcloud.com/ecfr/age-of-unpeace• "Welcome to the age of unpeace" by Mark Leonard in Politico https://www.politico.eu/article/welcome-to-the-age-of-unpeace-geopolitics-conflict/ Get the book here: https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/144/1443237/the-age-of-unpeace/9781787634657.html#:~:text=The%20%22age%20of%20unpeace%22%20%5B,his%20own%20beliefs%20have%20evolved.

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Last week, French president Emmanuel Marcon presented a massive investment plan – “France 2030”. The roadmap sketches out France’s digital and green transformation and is meant to set up the country – as well as Europe – for growth and success ahead of the French EU Council presidency. But is this strategy only part of electoral campaigning, as critics say? Or does “France 2030” echo bigger plans which the EU has already set out for the bloc? Host Mark Leonard is in our Paris office talking to office head and ECFR policy fellow Tara Varma: What are Macron’s plans for the EU Council presidency in 2022 and beyond? Can France fill the void that Germany leaves post-Merkel while forming a new government, and how?This podcast was recorded on 19 October 2021.Further reading:- The lonely leader: The origins of France’s strategy for EU foreign policy” by Tara Varma and Mathilde Ciulla: https://ecfr.eu/article/the-lonely-leader-the-origins-of-frances-strategy-for-eu-foreign-policy/ Bookshelf:- Peut-on changer de logique?, Philosophe Magazine No. 153 - October 2021

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A major ruling of Poland’s Constitutional Court challenging the primacy of EU law has escalated Warsaw’s legal and political dispute with Brussels and unleashed serious concerns of a ‘Polexit.’ In this week’s episode, host Mark Leonard speaks with Piotr Buras, head of ECFR’s Warsaw office, and Jana Puglierin, head of ECFR’s Berlin office, about the implications of the ruling for Poland as well as for the European Union. Should the EU fear ‘Polexit’? What steps can the EU take to defend its legal order and protect the authority of the Court of Justice of the European Union?This podcast was recorded on 14 October 2021.Further reading:Forget Polexit – the EU must defend the CJEU by Piotr Buras on Balkan Insight: https://buff.ly/3FA2Ftj Bookshelf: - Aftershocks: Pandemic politics and the end of the old international order by Colin Kahl and Thomas Wright- Angela Merkel: Die Kanzlerin und ihre Zeit by Ralph Bollmann- The Age of Unpeace: How Connectivity causes Conflict by Mark Leonard

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As the US looks to disentangle itself from various conflicts globally, it leaves behind power vacuums. In the MENA region, various regional – and global - powers are vying to fill the void. In this week’s episode, host Mark Leonard is joined by three guests directly from ECFR’s MENA Forum in Rome: Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, professor of political science in the UAE; Alia Moubayed, MENA chief economist for Jefferies; and Julien Barnes-Dacey, head of ECFR’s MENA programme. Together, they analyse the changing geopolitical and regional dynamics in the MENA region: Who is filling the vacuum which the US is increasingly leaving behind? How are regional actors reacting to US disengagement? And what does this mean for Europe’s future role in the region? This podcast was recorded on 5 October 2021.Further reading: - Iraq’s parliamentary election will produce more of the same by Nussaibah Younis: https://buff.ly/3A5xORd - Europe’s post-Afghanistan to-do list by Arancha Gonzalez Laya: https://buff.ly/3AHJyuC- Autonomous in Afghanistan: How the Europeans could have stayed after US withdrawal by Mary Kaldor: https://buff.ly/3CaB0wiBookshelf: Black Spartacus: The Epic Life of Toussaint Louverture by Sudhir Hazaareesingh After the Sheikhs: The Coming Collapse of the Gulf Monarchies by Christopher Davidson Beautiful World, Where Are You by Sally Rooney

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German election results are in, and they mark a new era for Germany. On 26 September, Germans headed to the polls to vote in one of the most unpredictable elections since Angela Merkel took office over a decade and a half ago. Now, Germany will have to endure weeks – or possibly months – of fraught coalition talks before a new government can be formed. In this week’s World in 30 Minutes episode, host Mark Leonard talks with Jeremy Cliffe, international editor of the New Statesman, Jana Puglierin, head of ECFR’s Berlin Office, Lykke Friis, ECFR co-chair and Director of the Danish Think Tank Europa, and Sylvie Kauffmann, editorial director of Le Monde, about the fragmented election result and its implications for Europe. What coalition – the ‘traffic light’, ‘Jamaica’ or ‘grand’ – is most likely? How are the results being perceived throughout Europe? And what do they mean for the future of our continent? This podcast was recorded on 29 September 2021.Bookshelf: -How Olaf Scholz and the SPD could lead Germany’s next government by Jeremy Cliffe -The Fateful Chancellor: What the end of the Merkel era means for the world by Jeremy Cliffe - Speak, Silence: In Search of WG Sebald by Caroline Angier - Pandemonium: Europe’s COVID Crisis by Luuk van Middelaar - Age of Unpeace: How Connectivity causes Conflict by Mark Leonard - The Vaccine by Joe Miller with Dr. Özlem Türeci and Dr. Ugur Sahin - Le Premier XXIe siècle by Jean-Marie Guehenno - Crime and persuade by Peter Baldwin

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The announcement of the new Indo-Pacific security alliance between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States - dubbed ‘AUKUS’ - has led to the biggest crisis in transatlantic relations since the Iraq war in 2003. In this week’s podcast, host Mark Leonard talks with Janka Oertel, head of ECFR’ Asia programme, Jeremy Shapiro, ECFR’s research director, and Tara Varma, head of ECFR’s Paris office, about the new security pact and its implications for Europe. What does it mean for the future of transatlantic relations? And what lessons can be drawn for European strategic autonomy and European sovereignty? This podcast was recorded on 20 September 2021.Further reading:- What Europeans think about the US-China cold war by Ivan Krastev & Mark Leonard: https://buff.ly/3hT6Iqa- After AUKUS: The uncertain future of American and European cooperation in the Indo-Pacific by Tara Varma: https://buff.ly/3CC3I9S- AUKUS: After the sugar rush by Nick Witney: https://buff.ly/3zyho3zBookshelf: - NüVoices - Podcast- Born a Crime by Trevor Noah: - Stalin an Appraisal of the Man His Influence by Leon Trotsky

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