Midrats

All it takes is a quick look at a map or a quick read of history to understand that any conflict in the Western Pacific will be dominated by naval forces, logistics, control of the air, and the ability to sustain all three.

Extending our conversation on Midrats this summer about the challenge from China, this Sunday returning to Midrats will be our guest Bryan Clark, a senior fellow and director of the Center for Defense Concepts and Technology at Hudson Institute.

The starting point for our discussion will be the report he co-authored with Timothy Walton, Regaining the High Ground Against China: A Plan to Achieve US Naval Aviation Superiority This Decade.

Before joining Hudson Institute, Bryan Clark was a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA) where he led studies for the Department of Defense Office of Net Assessment, Office of the Secretary of Defense, and Defense Advanced Research Products Agency on new technologies and the future of warfare.

Prior to joining CSBA in 2013, Mr. Clark was special assistant to the chief of naval operations and director of his Commander’s Action Group, where he led development of Navy strategy and implemented new initiatives in electromagnetic spectrum operations, undersea warfare, expeditionary operations, and personnel and readiness management. Mr. Clark served in the Navy headquarters staff from 2004 to 2011, leading studies in the Assessment Division and participating in the 2006 and 2010 Quadrennial Defense Reviews. Prior to retiring from the Navy in 2008, Mr. Clark was an enlisted and officer submariner, serving in afloat and ashore submarine operational and training assignments, including tours as chief engineer and operations officer at the Navy’s Nuclear Power Training Unit.

Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan managed to bring the national security eyeballs back to the Western Pacific after half a year in Eastern Europe.

The People’s Republic of China has not been distracted by the Russo-Ukrainian War any more than she was with our two decades distraction in Central and Southwest Asia. She remains focused on two things:

- Pushing America to her side of the Pacific.

- Establish herself as the primary regional and then global power.

Where does China stand today, and where is she heading for the rest of the decade?

We have a great guest this Sunday at 3pm Eastern to dive in to these and related topics, James E. Fanell, Captain, USN (Ret.)

Jim concluded a near 30-year career as a naval intelligence officer specializing in Indo-Pacific security affairs, with an emphasis on China's navy and operations. His most recent assignment was the Director of Intelligence and Information Operations for the U.S. Pacific Fleet following a series of afloat and ashore assignments focused on China, as the Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence for the U.S. Seventh Fleet aboard the USS Blue Ridge as well as the USS Kitty Hawk aircraft carrier strike group both forward deployed to Yokosuka, Japan. Ashore he was the U.S. Navy's China Senior Intelligence Officer at the Office of Naval Intelligence.

In addition to these assignments, he was a National Security Affairs Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University and is currently a Government Fellow with the Geneva Centre for Security Policy in Switzerland and the creator and manager of the Indo-Pacific Security forum Red Star Risen/Rising since 2005.

The Russian Navy HQ in Crimea had a Sunday visitor, China continues to be prickly about its neighbor's guest list, the Navy gets a new oiler (yes, that is sexy), Sal wrote a couple of things that got people's attention, and we are just a couple of months away until winter hits the slogfest in Ukraine.

Of course, that is just for starters because in a Midrats Free-For-All, you never know where the conversation will take us - and if you don't like where we're going, you can nudge us your way because the chat room and phones will be open

The Royal Navy and the United States Navy share a common heritage, and in the last century built one of the greatest maritime security partnerships over a longer period than any other pair of nations.

In more recent years, they also shared common challenges in keeping their once unchallenged sea power relevant, capable, and funded.

What are the lessons from both nations' recent stumbles in naval planning, program management, and managing the military industrial base that enables both? What have we done right that should be replicated, and where should we take the hard won lessons of failure to heart and move on?

We have a great guest for the full hour this Sunday to discuss these and related subjects, Emma Salisbury.

Emma is a PhD candidate at Birkbeck College, University of London, researching the history and theory of the U.S. military-industrial complex.

From Snake Island to the San Diego waterfront, from DC to the Baltic Sea - if there's a maritime issue worth considering, we'll try to pack it in for the hour this Sunday.

As with the normal Melee format, we have open topic, open chat, and open phones - so if there is an issue you'd like covered, now's your time.

- USS Bonhomme Richard Article: https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2022/07/15/vice-admiral-and-two-dozen-others-punished-for-uss-bonhomme-richard-fire/

- Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences report on Chinese demographics: https://theconversation.com/chinas-population-is-about-to-shrink-for-the-first-time-since-the-great-famine-struck-60-years-ago-heres-what-it-means-for-the-world-176377

- EU Allows Cargo To Flow Via Russian Port Of Kaliningrad: https://gcaptain.com/eu-cargo-russian-port-of-kaliningrad/

- The End of Global Order: A Conversation with Sam Harris, Peter Zeihan and Ian Bremmer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZqsVR9Hl2oQ

Books:

- Wayne P. Hughes, Jr., USN: Fleet Tactics: Fleet Tactics And Naval Operations: https://amzn.to/3cnU5n9

- Sandy Woodward: One Hundred Days: The Memoirs of the Falklands Battle Group Commander: https://amzn.to/3cfHPFj

Few navalists can look around them and feel content that their peers, government, and the American people understand - or for that matter seem to care - that our nation's wealth, health, and security is all based on the fact that we are a maritime and aerospace republic. Without excellence, mastery, and control of these two areas in the face of the challenge from China, all else is in danger.

Inside and outside government, what needs to be done to create the conditions so we can provide for those generations who follow us the place and the world previous generations earned for us?

Making a return to visit, our guest for the full hour to discuss this broad ranging topic will be Lieutenant Commander Jimmy Drennan, U.S. Navy, former president of the Center for International Maritime Security.

While everyone is distracted by the Russo-Ukrainian War, the People’s Republic of China continues to work to solidify her ability to control the South China Sea and to bring more nations in to her orbit.

Though not a cold war, it is a struggle for presence, influence, and setting the conditions for advantage should conflict come.

The United States and her Navy are not required to be in a passive posture, allowing China to shape the environment without pushback.

This episode of Midrats will focus on American options and actions we can take to blunt Chinese influence and to prevent her from setting up the Western Pacific to her advantage relative to the United States and her friends and allies.

Our guest for the full hour to discuss this and more will be Brent Sadler, a senior fellow for maritime security and advanced naval technology at The Heritage Foundation.

Along the spectrum from peacetime exercises to wartime combined operations, successfully integrating multinational forces is not a pick-up game. To do it right requires leaders and institutions years of practice, trust, and demonstrated ability.

This is true of all military operations, but especially true when moving forces ashore during amphibious operations.

In our constellation of allies, partners and friends along the shores of the Indo-Pacific theater, since 2015 the United States Marine Forces Pacific has led the multi-national Pacific Amphibious Leaders Symposium.

Today we are going to dive in to not just the symposium itself to the broader topic of combined amphibious operations in the Indo-Pacific with our guest, Major Evan “Zach” Ota, USMC from the International Affairs Branch, U. S. Marine Corps Forces, Pacific.

If you've missed having David Larter on the Navy beat, well you're in for a treat.

Though everyone's favorite former OS2 is no longer a defense journalist, like most Sailors, he doesn't leave his love of the sea or affection for his Navy behind.

Returning to Midrats, but this time with a little California sunshine kissing his cheeks, David will be with us for the full hour and we will cover the board from Ukraine, fleet size, how we treat our Sailors, global food security, China, and the things navalists should be thinking about, but aren't.

Don't miss it!

What do the numbers tell us about the USN's expected fleet during the rest of what we call the Terrible 20s?

We are going to spend an hour digging in to that with returning guest Matthew Hipple, active duty Surface Warfare Officer & former president of the Center for International Maritime Security.

As a starting point for our conversation we will reference his May 9th article over at CIMSEC, "20 Years of Naval Trends Guarantee a FY23 Shipbuilding Plan Failure."

"The FY23 Shipbuilding Plan proposes a 10-year drop in fleet numbers that deviates in spirit from every shipbuilding plan since 2012. During this dangerous decade, the FY23 Shipbuilding Plan returns the fleet to a size that precipitated the period of panic that inspired Congress to enshrine the 355-ship goal into law (Figure 2). The FY23 Long Range Shipbuilding Plan will miss the defunct, minimum goal of 300 ships by another decade, and is less likely to meet the Navy’s legal and operational 355-ship requirement."