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We unpack why feedlot placements keep falling, how heavier carcass weights mask some supply tightness, and where 2025 prices could land if demand stays steady. We also cut through noise on imports, the Mexico border shift, and dairy buyout rumors with history and context.

• November placements lower and annual totals sharply down
• 2025 fed cattle supplies likely tighter than 2024
• Demand steady as baseline risk, not a driver lower
• Heavier carcass weights boost output per head
• Front‑end supply recalculated for longer days on feed
• Argentina small, Brazil moderate import growth
• Mexico shifts from feeder exports toward feeding at home
• Cow culling falls, herd transition to slow growth
• Dairy buyout history and low odds of a shock today
• Practical read on prices, leverage, and risk

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Thank you, Tommy G