Welcome to Top of the Morning by Mint.. I’m Nelson John and here are today’s top stories.

India’s Growth Engine Still Roaring, Says RBI

The Reserve Bank of India’s annual report is cautiously optimistic. It warns of global headwinds—rising input costs, protectionist trade policies, and tariff risks—but says India remains the fastest-growing major economy. Domestic demand, strong exports, and a thriving farm sector powered momentum in FY25. Inflation eased to a six-year low of 3.16% in April, raising expectations of a 25 bps repo rate cut in June.

Forex reserves are healthy, fiscal discipline is holding, and public capex continues to drive growth. On the radar: stress tests, cyber risk reviews, and climate risk evaluations for banks and NBFCs. A record ₹2.69 trillion surplus transfer to the Centre also boosted RBI’s balance sheet credibility.

Bottom line? Global chaos may persist, but India’s economic engine looks well-fueled and storm-ready.

Covid Creeps Back, But Experts Say: Stay Alert, Not Alarmed

With new Covid variants NB.1.8.1 and LF.7 emerging, and over 1,000 active cases reported across cities like Delhi and Bengaluru, India is reactivating its Covid response. A high-level panel is reviewing vaccine stocks, testing readiness, and hospital capacity.

Experts say the virus is currently mild. Hybrid immunity—vaccine plus natural infection—is widespread, and booster doses aren’t necessary for most. But vaccine makers are being urged to update formulations in case a new, more dangerous variant emerges.

Dr. Soumya Swaminathan and other health leaders advise vigilance over panic. WHO hasn’t flagged the variants as serious threats. For now, the focus is on monitoring—not mass vaccinations.

India, US Sprint to Seal Trade Deal Before Tariff Clock Expires

India and the US are racing to close a long-pending bilateral trade pact before a crucial 8 July deadline, when Trump-era reciprocal tariffs could make a comeback. American negotiators arrive in Delhi next week for what could be the final round.

India’s chief negotiator Rajesh Agarwal said this deal is a strategic play—not just about tariff relief. It covers agriculture, autos, digital trade, and market access, with potential to reframe global supply chains.

Even though a US court recently ruled Trump’s baseline tariffs illegal, India is pressing on, seeing the agreement as key to long-term trade stability and its $30 trillion economic ambition by 2047.

Sebi Tightens the Screws on F&O Market Risk

Come 1 July, Sebi is rolling out sweeping reforms in the equity derivatives market. The big change? A smarter, risk-sensitive metric called delta-adjusted open interest. This will offer a clearer view of traders’ exposure based on price movements of underlying assets.

Limits are being introduced—₹1,500 crore net exposure and ₹10,000 crore gross—for index options. For single-stock derivatives, Sebi is tying position limits to cash market liquidity starting October.

Retail traders lost ₹1.89 trillion in F&O bets between FY22 and FY24, prompting Sebi to act. With earlier steps like raising lot sizes and capping weekly expiries already in motion, the message is clear: the F&O free-for-all is ending. Trade smart—or step aside.

Trump’s Tariffs Get Court Stay—For Now

Donald Trump’s controversial “Liberation Day” tariffs live to see another day. A federal appeals court has temporarily allowed the former US president to keep imposing broad-based tariffs under emergency powers, despite a lower court ruling that declared them illegal.

The court cited national security concerns, giving the Trump team more time to fight the legal challenge. Critics argue the tariffs were arbitrary, hurting global trade and spooking markets.

White House adviser Peter Navarro insists the administration will push on—via courts or alternative methods. “It’s not over,” he said. “We have other tools.”

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