MIP Markets with Shawn Hackett Correction Expected in June USDA Report

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Summary

In this episode of the Moving Iron Podcast, Mark Schlissel interviews Sean Hackett from Hackett Financial about the current state of commodities. They discuss the weather conditions affecting crop production, including frosts in Russia and rain in the southern US. Hackett explains the concept of a 'bifurcated flood drought' and how extreme weather patterns impact crop yields worldwide. They also touch on the wheat market, the hog market, and the crop estimates for Brazil and Argentina. Hackett criticizes the USDA's yield estimates and predicts a correction in the June report.

Keywords

#commodities, #weather, #cropproduction, #frost, #rain, #wheatmarket , #hogmarket, #cropestimates, #Brazil, #Argentina, #USDA, #yieldestimates

Takeaways

Extreme weather patterns, such as floods and droughts, impact crop yields worldwide.

The wheat market has rallied, but the USDA's yield estimates may not fully reflect crop conditions.

The hog and cattle markets are currently ambivalent, with prices in a wide-ranging trading range.

The USDA's crop estimates for Brazil and Argentina may not align with the estimates from Conab Brazil.

The USDA is slow to adjust its yield estimates and often corrects them months later.

The June report from the USDA may show a reduction in corn stocks, which could be a bullish factor for the market.

Sound Bites

"We have historic flooding in Southern China destroying the rice and sugar crops, yet we have a significant drought to the north threatening soybeans and corn production."

"Even if Ukraine continues to be able to ship the crop out, it's going to be a much smaller crop anyway, and that, on the margin, is another bullish development for overall supply and demand."

"If the wheat board says the crop looks way worse than the USDA, I think we'll get a reaction."

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Crop Conditions

03:48 Impact of Extreme Weather on Crop Yields

06:43 Crop Conditions in Ukraine and Russia

10:03 The Wheat Market and USDA Estimates

16:32 Discrepancies in USDA and Conab Brazil Crop Estimates

21:38 Expectations for the June USDA Report

23:56 Conclusion and Buying Opportunities

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