Mo Money

The AFR reckons rentvesting is dead now that negative gearing has been wound back. Jack Henderson reckons the AFR has it backwards, and he's paying $3,700 a week in rent while he says it.

This one moves fast. Jack explains the valuation method most property investors have never heard of, where a property with two incomes on one title gets valued on its rent instead of on what the neighbours sold for, and walks through the duplex where that difference was worth more than a million dollars. He puts a number on what a dollar of rent is worth in value.

He gets specific about the off-the-plan settlements he thinks are about to go wrong, and the capital gains tax bill you can get on a property that never went up. And he ends with the single piece of research he tells every young investor to do before they touch anything.

Language warning. Jack talks the way Jack talks. This one isn't for the school run.

WHAT YOU'LL GET OUT OF IT

• Why rentvesting still works without negative gearing, and where it stops making sense

• The cap rate valuation method, and why it only applies to properties with multiple incomes on one title

• Jack's duplex, a $500k paper loss that became a gain by not subdividing

• What a dollar of rent is worth at a 5% cap rate versus a 3% cap rate

• The off-the-plan settlements about to land 20% under contract price

• Why depreciation can hand you a CGT bill on a property that didn't grow

• The only time Jack thinks you should buy brand new

• What he tells clients who are scared of prices falling further

• Why the tax narrative looks different once you know corporate tax was 49% in the 80s

• The question to ask the oldest person you know

CHAPTERS

00:10 Is rentvesting dead? 01:28 The rent increase Jack refused to pay 02:32 Has the YAM strategy changed since the budget? 03:52 The duplex: $5.25m, then $4.7m, then $6.5m 07:47 When valuers use a cap rate 08:20 What a dollar of rent is worth 08:52 The Paddington office at a 2.8% cap rate 10:06 Everyone's feeling battered. What now? 11:25 If you do nothing, will you get there? 12:21 Corporate tax was 49% in the 80s 14:56 Who actually pays the tax in Australia 15:43 Worried about valuations falling? 16:08 Off-the-plan carnage 17:22 The 5% deposit scheme and negative equity 19:19 The depreciation trap that creates a CGT bill 21:43 Will more finished properties come to market? 22:36 The only time to buy brand new 25:24 De-risking a falling market 26:13 Has the playbook changed? 28:09 So, for the AFR readers, is rentvesting dead? 28:46 Ask the oldest person you know 31:35 Buy a fast boat

GUEST LINKS Jack Henderson, Henderson Advocacy: https://henderson.com.au/ Jack on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/jackchenderson/

Smarter money moves start here. Learn how to cut through the noise, avoid expensive mistakes, and get ahead faster. FREE 7-DAY MONEY CHALLENGES Pick one and see what changes in a week: https://pivotwealth.com.au/challenges/ WORK WITH US Book a no-strings call: https://www.pivotwealth.com.au/booking More about Pivot Wealth: https://www.pivotwealth.com.au BEN'S BOOKS Virgin Millionaire: https://amzn.to/3VFPPDM Replace Your Salary by Investing: https://amzn.to/3J9Ta8g Get Unstuck: https://amzn.to/3xo0MQG All books: https://www.pivotwealth.com.au/books FOLLOW Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/pivotben TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@bentalksmoney YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/BenNashPivot Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/pivotwealth/ DISCLAIMER This podcast is for education only and doesn't take into account your personal circumstances. It's not financial advice. If you buy a financial product, read the PDS and TMD, and seek advice tailored to your situation. Ben Nash and Pivot Wealth are authorised representatives of Fish Tacos Pty Ltd, ABN 14 649 248 082, AFSL 533055.

On 12 May the budget killed the bucket company. A 30% minimum tax on trust income was the headline, but the real damage was underneath it, because that tax came with no credit when the money moved on to a company. Stack the two together and business owners were looking at an effective rate over 60% on profit they had already been taxed on once.

On 3 September the government released draft legislation that changes the picture, and Ben walks through exactly what it does. There is a window, it closes on 1 July 2028, and if you make a fixed election on your trust before then, the 30% minimum tax doesn't apply. The trade is that a discretionary trust stops being discretionary, forever.

Ben runs the numbers on a business making $400k a year and shows a gap of just under $2 million between two owners doing the same thing in different structures. He also covers the strategy the election kills, which is distributing to your adult kids. And he explains why who owns the shares in your bucket company now matters more than it ever has, with a 22-month window that just started.

WHAT YOU'LL GET OUT OF IT

• What a bucket company is and why business owners built their wealth around it

• How the budget got the effective tax rate on trust distributions above 60%

• What the 3 September draft legislation changes, and when it's expected to pass

• The fixed election, how it works, why it's permanent, and the two things that reset it

• A business making $400k a year, in a company versus personally, over 10 and 30 years

• Why distributing to adult children is now off the table

• Who should own the shares in your bucket company

• What happens to anyone who starts a business after 1 July 2028

• The sequence to follow before the window closes

CHAPTERS

00:06 Is the bucket company dead? 01:10 What a bucket company actually does 02:53 What the budget did on 12 May 05:00 The 3 September draft legislation 06:13 The election window closes 1 July 2028 08:15 A discretionary trust that isn't discretionary 10:30 Plan ten years out, not twelve months 11:35 If you start a business after July 2028 14:21 Ben paid himself nothing for three years 15:45 The numbers: $200k a year into a bucket company 18:33 The adult kids strategy is finished 20:44 Income versus distribution, and payroll tax 21:27 Who should own the bucket company 22:46 Stress test your accountant 23:23 The 22-month window 24:02 Stamp duty and why the states said no 25:57 The sequence to follow before the deadline 28:00 Don't die wondering 29:20 Wrap

Smarter money moves start here. Learn how to cut through the noise, avoid expensive mistakes, and get ahead faster. FREE 7-DAY MONEY CHALLENGES Pick one and see what changes in a week: https://pivotwealth.com.au/challenges/ WORK WITH US Book a no-strings call: https://www.pivotwealth.com.au/booking More about Pivot Wealth: https://www.pivotwealth.com.au BEN'S BOOKS Virgin Millionaire: https://amzn.to/3VFPPDM Replace Your Salary by Investing: https://amzn.to/3J9Ta8g Get Unstuck: https://amzn.to/3xo0MQG All books: https://www.pivotwealth.com.au/books FOLLOW Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/pivotben TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@bentalksmoney YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/BenNashPivot Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/pivotwealth/ DISCLAIMER This podcast is for education only and doesn't take into account your personal circumstances. It's not financial advice. If you buy a financial product, read the PDS and TMD, and seek advice tailored to your situation. Ben Nash and Pivot Wealth are authorised representatives of Fish Tacos Pty Ltd, ABN 14 649 248 082, AFSL 533055.

Every second call at the moment ends the same way. The budget has tightened the screws, the pay rise didn't move the needle, so what if we just moved to Singapore? Or Dubai. Or Hong Kong.

Ben and Siobhan ran the numbers, and the first thing they found is that Australia is a lower tax country than the UK, Canada, New Zealand and most of Europe. The catch is where we collect it. Almost 43% of every tax dollar in Australia comes from personal income, one of the heaviest reliances on personal income tax in the developed world, and that is exactly why it feels the way it does.

From there it gets practical. What you take home on $100k, $250k, $500k and $1 million in Sydney versus Singapore, Hong Kong and Dubai. What those countries charge you instead, from a 60% stamp duty on foreigners to private everything. How you actually get in.

The tax bill Australia hands you on the way out. And the two residency tests the ATO uses to decide whether you really left, because the people getting caught aren't the ones who moved, they're the ones who pretended to.

WHAT YOU'LL GET OUT OF IT

• Why Australia's total tax take is below the OECD average, and why it feels worse than that

• Take-home pay on $100k, $250k, $500k and $1m across Australia, Singapore, Hong Kong and Dubai

• Zero capital gains, zero on dividends and zero on interest, and what these countries charge instead

• The employment pass, the top talent pass and the golden visa, and what each one costs to qualify for

• Monaco, the Caribbean, Vanuatu and the other places that make the list

• The deemed disposal tax bill you pay when you leave, without selling anything

• Source tax versus residency tax, and why your Australian property still gets taxed

• The six-month test and the centre of vital economic interest

• Who relocating actually works for, and who ends up worse off

• The tax-smart moves available to you if you stay

CHAPTERS

00:07 Should you move to Singapore to save tax? 01:33 Australia is below the OECD average, with one big but 03:50 Why the pay rise stopped moving the needle 04:30 Singapore, Hong Kong and Dubai, why those three 05:46 Take-home pay on $100k, $250k, $500k and $1m 08:13 One year in Dubai equals five years here 09:22 Zero CGT, zero on dividends, zero on interest 10:09 Tax residency is the whole game 11:23 How these countries tax you instead 12:13 Getting in: employment passes, talent passes and golden visas 15:37 Monaco, the Caribbean and Vanuatu 19:21 The deemed disposal bill on the way out 20:20 Source tax versus residency tax 24:19 The six-month test and centre of vital economic interest 26:16 Line-ball residency cases 28:37 Who this actually works for 29:38 Is it worth six months away from your family? 30:36 The tax-smart moves if you stay 32:33 Wrap

Smarter money moves start here. Learn how to cut through the noise, avoid expensive mistakes, and get ahead faster. FREE 7-DAY MONEY CHALLENGES Pick one and see what changes in a week: https://pivotwealth.com.au/challenges/ WORK WITH US Book a no-strings call: https://www.pivotwealth.com.au/booking More about Pivot Wealth: https://www.pivotwealth.com.au BEN'S BOOKS Virgin Millionaire: https://amzn.to/3VFPPDM Replace Your Salary by Investing: https://amzn.to/3J9Ta8g Get Unstuck: https://amzn.to/3xo0MQG All books: https://www.pivotwealth.com.au/books FOLLOW Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/pivotben TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@bentalksmoney YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/BenNashPivot Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/pivotwealth/ DISCLAIMER This podcast is for education only and doesn't take into account your personal circumstances. It's not financial advice. If you buy a financial product, read the PDS and TMD, and seek advice tailored to your situation. Ben Nash and Pivot Wealth are authorised representatives of Fish Tacos Pty Ltd, ABN 14 649 248 082, AFSL 533055.

Hugh Robertson reckons the world changed for Aussie investors on 12 May. For years the playbook was simple. Earn well, borrow, negatively gear into residential property and let the market do the rest. The budget took a fair chunk of that off the table, and now a lot of people with money to put to work are asking the same question. What's the play now? Hugh runs Centaur Financial Services, sits on the Barron's Top 100 adviser list, and has been a mate of Ben's for over a decade, which means he doesn't get to be diplomatic. In this one he walks through exactly what his firm changed in client portfolios after the budget, why they've gone underweight Australian shares, and the asset classes they're now allocating to that they never touched before. We also get into the commercial property pitch flooding everyone's feed, and why two emerging markets ETFs can hold completely different countries. Hugh explains what big tech raising debt tells you about where the US market sits, and puts Ben through the maths question about a 50% fall that trips up almost everyone. Then the honest bit on stock picking, why only around one in ten active managers beats the index over a decade, and what Hugh thinks matters most for investors over the next six to 12 months. CHAPTERS (raw recording times, re-map to the final cut before publishing) 00:00 Intro and the list that actually counts 01:27 The world changed on 12 May 03:38 Where ambitious investors go now 04:06 The commercial property trap 06:48 What Centaur changed in its portfolios after the budget 08:17 The nanny state and the aspirational investor 11:00 How much the CGT changes drove the shift to global 12:11 The fully franked dividend obsession

13:12 Total return and where wealth sits once trusts are gone 14:26 ETF, managed fund or direct 15:17 Investing at all-time highs 16:58 AI after the picks and shovels 18:49 Emerging markets and the South Korea trade 20:09 Two emerging markets ETFs, two very different baskets 21:01 Staying in the US and backing the jockey 22:06 Same profit, half the price 22:47 Infrastructure as inflation protection 24:09 Locked-up money and closed-end funds 24:44 Private markets, evergreen funds and secondaries 25:59 Comparison is the thief of joy 26:42 Is the US market overcooked? 28:10 The canary in the coal mine 29:20 SpaceX, IPOs and Aussie super money 31:07 Where the opportunity actually is 33:47 Global small caps and the information edge 36:21 Only one in ten active managers beats the index 37:22 Accumulators want volatility, retirees don't 38:09 The maths test almost everyone fails 39:17 GFC lessons and the free lunch 40:44 When DIY stops making sense 42:52 Boring portfolio, interesting life 43:34 Don't get mad at your adviser when markets fall 45:06 The most important thing for the next six to 12 months 46:29 Why not to ask AI for financial advice Smarter money moves start here. Learn how to cut through the noise, avoid expensive mistakes, and get ahead faster. FREE 7-DAY MONEY CHALLENGES Pick one and see what changes in a week: https://pivotwealth.com.au/challenges/ WORK WITH US Book a no-strings call: https://www.pivotwealth.com.au/booking More about Pivot Wealth: https://www.pivotwealth.com.au BEN'S BOOKS Virgin Millionaire: https://amzn.to/3VFPPDM Replace Your Salary by Investing: https://amzn.to/3J9Ta8g Get Unstuck: https://amzn.to/3xo0MQG All books: https://www.pivotwealth.com.au/books FOLLOW Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/pivotben TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@bentalksmoney YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/BenNashPivot Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/pivotwealth/

DISCLAIMER This podcast is for education only and doesn't take into account your personal circumstances. It's not financial advice. If you buy a financial product, read the PDS and TMD, and seek advice tailored to your situation. Ben Nash and Pivot Wealth are authorised representatives of Fish Tacos Pty Ltd, ABN 14 649 248 082, AFSL 533055.

Maddy and James are both senior, both earning well, and last year they opened a tax bill with six figures on it and no idea how they were going to pay it.

The problem was never income. It was employer equity. Every vest built the paper wealth and the tax liability at the same time, and they'd been covering it by selling shares and draining savings, three times over. Then they upgraded the house, sold more stock to fund the stamp duty, and the cycle got worse.

This is how they got out of what they call tax jail, and what changed once they did. Twelve months on they're comfortably up six figures, they've got pre-approval on an investment property, an ETF portfolio, and they're talking to architects about the renovation.

WHAT YOU'LL GET OUT OF IT

• Why a bigger salary and an equity comp plan created a problem instead of solving one

• The trap of selling shares to pay the tax on shares, over and over

• Concentration risk when your income and your portfolio come from the same company

• Why they held every vest for years, and the moment that changed

• Getting burned by a previous adviser, and what they would look for now

• How the budget capital gains changes made them pause an investment property

• Ten years of lost super across four funds, and how it finally got fixed

• Why top few percent earners still end up shuffling money at the end of the month

• Debt recycling, offsets and the strategies they had never heard of

CHAPTERS

00:03 Rapid fire round

07:09 Intro

07:35 Senior, well paid, and still stretched

09:53 The moment the tax bill landed

10:32 How they found out, and the options they weighed

11:35 How they'd been handling it before

12:43 What Sunday night money chats looked like

14:16 The moment they decided to act

15:05 Concentration risk in employer shares

18:00 What it would have cost to keep going

18:58 Getting burned by a previous adviser

21:43 Selling vested shares, then versus now

25:12 What they used to believe about money

27:25 What surprised them about the process

29:47 The decision they now make differently

31:27 What used to keep them up at night

32:43 What's possible now that wasn't 12 months ago

33:29 A refinance in five days

33:59 What's different day to day

36:19 Ten years of lost super, sorted in weeks

37:07 What actually changed about their lifestyle

38:41 Sunday night money chats now

39:39 Why they paused the investment property after the budget

42:11 What Ian said that stuck

44:00 What makes the fees worth paying

45:27 Advice to their 21 year old selves

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DISCLAIMER

This podcast is for education only and doesn't take into account your personal circumstances. It's not financial advice. If you buy a financial product, read the PDS and TMD, and seek advice tailored to your situation. Ben Nash and Pivot Wealth are authorised representatives of Fish Tacos Pty Ltd, ABN 14 649 248 082, AFSL 533055.

There are more than 70,000 kids' investment accounts sitting on one Australian platform, and it's the fastest growing part of the business. Craig Keary is the new CEO of Raiz, and before that he spent thirty years across HSBC, CBA, Westpac and AMP Capital, plus a stint running Selfwealth.

Craig shares what he's seeing across 350,000 active accounts, including what people actually did with their money through the tariff volatility and the Middle East tensions, and whether the budget changed anyone's behaviour at all. We also get into why younger Australians have almost no home country bias, and the habit Craig reckons costs investors more than fees ever will.

WHAT YOU'LL GET OUT OF IT

• What 350,000 accounts show about how people behave when markets get ugly

• Why kids' accounts are growing faster than anything else, and what parents are getting right

• Whether the budget's property tax changes have shifted anyone's investment strategy

• The generational split between global investors and franking credit hunters

• Why dollar cost averaging beats trying to pick your moment

• What investing looked like thirty years ago at 2.5% commissions

• Whether today's tech giants are just the railways of a century ago

• The ego problem that quietly wrecks good portfolios

CHAPTERS

00:16 Intro

00:56 What's changed in markets and the world

02:27 Time in the market beats timing it

03:09 What 350,000 accounts actually show

03:44 Why kids' accounts are the fastest growing thing

05:40 Has the budget changed anyone's behaviour

08:12 Gen Z go global, boomers want franking credits

09:30 Why visible progress keeps people invested

10:30 The headlines versus your actual balance

11:48 AI, tech and whether this time is structural

14:19 US stocks coming to the platform

15:19 What investors should get right from here

17:30 Don't chase the trend

19:00 Emergency funds and why they protect the strategy

19:40 Dollar cost averaging and round-ups

21:00 How Craig built his money knowledge over 30 years

22:30 Don't let your ego wreck your investing

23:11 Travel, Waymo and an expensive lesson

23:51 What diversification actually means

CRAIG KEARY, RAIZ INVEST Craig on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/craigkeary/

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DISCLAIMER

This podcast is for education only and doesn't take into account your personal circumstances. It's not financial advice. If you buy a financial product, read the PDS and TMD, and seek advice tailored to your situation. Ben Nash and Pivot Wealth are authorised representatives of Fish Tacos Pty Ltd, ABN 14 649 248 082, AFSL 533055.

Matt Lakajev dropped out of school, got kicked out of home more than once, and worked 25 different jobs before having a breakdown at 27 that sent him back to his parents' place. He then googled how to make the most money without a degree, found sales, and built an audience of more than 100,000 people on the platform everyone claims to hate.

This one's for anyone in a senior role who knows their network matters but has never posted a thing. Matt gets specific on why LinkedIn still converts better than anywhere else, what AI screening is quietly doing to your job applications, and why hitting post for the first time takes most people about three years.

WHAT YOU'LL GET OUT OF IT

• Why LinkedIn works despite being, in Matt's words, a Windows 95 sitting next to a MacBook

• The one thing you can't fake on LinkedIn that you can fake everywhere else

• What AI resume screening means for how you actually find your next role

• Trust leverage, and why companies hire the safe 80% performer over the superstar

• How to handle tall poppy syndrome and the feeling that posting is just showing off

• Word for word, what your first post should say

• The kind of knowledge AI can never replicate, and why it's the only thing worth posting

• The three mistakes that make experienced people look like beginners online

CHAPTERS

01:20 Intro

01:42 The 27 years Matt calls his loser era

02:38 Why LinkedIn, of all places

04:30 What actually drove the growth

06:48 The one platform where people can't lie

09:30 Why some people post and most never will

11:22 The opportunity for senior professionals

12:30 AI is screening you out before a human sees you

13:30 Trust leverage and Dunbar's number

14:30 Why hiring is really about de-risking

16:09 Where to start if you've never posted

17:30 Messages people actually reply to

18:56 Open curiosity loops

19:30 Tall poppy syndrome

21:21 Two rules for posting

21:55 Exactly what your first post should say

23:50 Is posting just showing off

26:43 What to post, and the formats that work

28:30 The knowledge AI can't copy

31:43 Post length and image size

32:26 Three mistakes to avoid

MATT LAKAJEV, SEVEN FIGURE CREATORS

Free LinkedIn Profile Kit, 24 custom Figma templates: https://sevenfigurecreators.com/lm/a-free-kit-to-design-your-linkedin-profile/

Matt on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mattlakajev/

Matt on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@matthewlakajev

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DISCLAIMER

This podcast is for education only and doesn't take into account your personal circumstances. It's not financial advice. If you buy a financial product, read the PDS and TMD, and seek advice tailored to your situation. Ben Nash and Pivot Wealth are authorised representatives of Fish Tacos Pty Ltd, ABN 14 649 248 082, AFSL 533055.

Nada and Adrian came to Pivot with one property and a plan to buy another. Adrian also had a list of his own: refinance the house, buy the second property, buy a $130,000 car, then take a holiday. His words for how that would have gone are not repeatable in a description.

Three months in, the plan looks nothing like that. Two weeks after their strategy session the federal budget landed and changed the maths on the second property entirely, so they went back to the drawing board and ended up somewhere they'd never seriously considered. This is an honest look at what the first few months of getting advice actually feels like, including the admin, the arguments about a $2,000 suit, and the moment it clicked.

WHAT YOU'LL GET OUT OF IT

• What their plan was before they got advice, and what it would have cost them

• How the budget forced a full rethink two weeks after the strategy was set

• Choosing shares over a second property, and how they got comfortable with it

• Aligning as a couple when one of you wants to travel and the other wants a car

• The money myths they both believed, including that earning more means keeping more

• Planning around starting a family and the income dip nobody accounts for

• What surprised them most about the process

• What they'd tell someone who thinks they don't have enough money for advice

CHAPTERS

00:13 Rapid fire round

17:59 Intro

20:34 What was on their mind before they got advice

24:38 The turning point

27:02 What staying stuck would have cost them

28:08 What surprised them about the process

31:19 The moment it clicked

33:17 How they talk about money now

36:02 The frustration that's gone

36:49 What they're working towards

38:34 Why the budget made them choose shares over property

40:11 What Reece said that stuck

41:08 Advice for anyone on the fence

43:10 What if you think you can't afford advice

45:45 Advice to their 21 year old selves

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DISCLAIMER

This podcast is for education only and doesn't take into account your personal circumstances. It's not financial advice. If you buy a financial product, read the PDS and TMD, and seek advice tailored to your situation. Ben Nash and Pivot Wealth are authorised representatives of Fish Tacos Pty Ltd, ABN 14 649 248 082, AFSL 533055.

Same money, same returns, same twenty years. One fund charges 0.2%, the other charges 1%. The difference is more than fifty thousand dollars, and Shani Jayamanne ran the numbers before she walked into the studio.

Shani is an Investment Specialist at Morningstar, co-host of Investing Compass and co-author of Invest Your Way. Morningstar runs a study twice a year comparing what funds return against what the investors in those funds actually get, and the funds win by 1.2% a year. Shani explains where that gap comes from, why Australians are among the best in the world at closing it, and what that has to do with the fact that someone else decides when your super goes into the market.

WHAT YOU'LL GET OUT OF IT

• The gap between investment returns and investor returns, and exactly what's causing it

• Why losses hurt more than twice as much as gains, and the two mistakes that come from it

• What a 1% fee really costs you over twenty years

• Why more investment options make people less likely to invest at all

• What happens to your returns if you miss the ten best days in the market

• Lump sum versus dollar cost averaging, and where Ben disagrees with the research

• Why the most sophisticated investors tend to have the simplest portfolios

• The investment specialist who doesn't pick stocks, and why

CHAPTERS

00:21 Intro

00:44 The biggest mistake Australian investors make

01:30 Mind the Gap: your fund beat you by 1.2%

02:30 Why compulsory super makes Australians better investors

04:00 Loss aversion, and why losses hurt 2.25 times more

06:11 Do men and women invest differently

06:30 Complexity is not sophistication

08:00 Boring is profitable

10:30 The chart a colleague left on her desk

12:00 Why more choice means less action

15:22 Thematic ETFs and the AI question

19:43 Growing up with cash and property and no shares

22:00 Fifty dollars a week on a $56,000 salary

24:16 What changed in how she invests

26:30 What a 1% fee really costs

27:55 Where markets are and what's already priced in

29:27 Lump sum or drip feed, and Ben pushes back

33:24 Advice to her 21 year old self

SHANI JAYAMANNE, MORNINGSTAR

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DISCLAIMER

This podcast is for education only and doesn't take into account your personal circumstances. It's not financial advice. If you buy a financial product, read the PDS and TMD, and seek advice tailored to your situation. Ben Nash and Pivot Wealth are authorised representatives of Fish Tacos Pty Ltd, ABN 14 649 248 082, AFSL 533055.

Everyone's calling it a crash. Louis Christopher runs SQM Research, one of Australia's biggest property data houses, and he says that word is wrong. What we're in is the largest downturn in 10 to 15 years, but the one ingredient every genuine housing crash has ever needed is missing here.

Louis breaks down where the market actually is, which cities are falling hardest, and which pockets are barely moving at all. We get into what the budget's tax changes are really doing to investor behaviour, why rents have stalled when everyone expected them to spike, and what he'd buy if he were putting money in today.

WHAT YOU'LL GET OUT OF IT

• The difference between a correction and a crash, and why a 10% property fall hurts more than a 10% sharemarket fall

• Why Australia isn't set up for a US or Ireland style collapse

• The city by city forecasts for the rest of the year

• What happened to rents after the negative gearing changes, and why the answer is more concerning than it looks

• Which markets are holding up, and the ones carrying the most risk right now

• How long this downturn runs, and what the long term growth rate looks like from here

• Whether the 6.8% long term average still holds

CHAPTERS

00:00 Intro

00:25 Where the property market actually is right now

02:24 Crash or correction, and why the difference matters

03:15 Why a 10% property fall hurts more than a 10% sharemarket fall

04:00 How APRA and the RBA really behave in a downturn

05:00 How long downturns last, and why this one is structural

06:30 What the budget tax changes did to the investor maths

08:45 The flow-on to the economy and state budgets

11:25 Rents went up $2 a week, and why that is the worrying part

13:00 Which suburbs are most exposed

16:18 Semi-rural and lifestyle property, and the risk nobody prices

18:09 Airbnb income and the wealth effect

19:00 The city by city forecasts

21:08 Adelaide and Perth

26:02 What actually drives values over the long term

28:37 How people are coping with record rents

30:17 Population growth and the 6.8% question

34:52 Where Louis put his own money

Smarter money moves start here.

Learn how to cut through the noise, avoid expensive mistakes, and get ahead faster.

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BEN'S BOOKS

Virgin Millionaire: https://amzn.to/3VFPPDM

Replace Your Salary by Investing: https://amzn.to/3J9Ta8g

Get Unstuck: https://amzn.to/3xo0MQG

All books: https://www.pivotwealth.com.au/books

FOLLOW

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TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@bentalksmoney

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/BenNashPivot

Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/pivotwealth/

DISCLAIMER

This podcast is for education only and doesn't take into account your personal circumstances. It's not financial advice. If you buy a financial product, read the PDS and TMD, and seek advice tailored to your situation. Ben Nash and Pivot Wealth are authorised representatives of Fish Tacos Pty Ltd, ABN 14 649 248 082, AFSL 533055.