May 27, 2025

NBA Tuesday/Wednesday Preview + Best Bets !!

59 minutes

Munaf Manji and Mackenzie Rivers talk NBA playoff betting. The guys also give out best bets.

This episode of RJ Bell’s Dream Preview: NBA Playoff Edition with Munaf Manji and Mackenzie Rivers provides an in-depth analysis of two critical NBA playoff matchups: Knicks vs. Pacers Game 4 and Thunder vs. Timberwolves Game 5. The conversation opens with a reflection on Game 3, where the Knicks overcame a 20-point deficit to win. This turnaround stemmed from strategic adjustments—starting Mitchell Robinson and bringing Josh Hart off the bench—allowing New York to clamp down on Indiana's offense. Jalen Brunson struggled with foul trouble and inefficiency, contributing just six field goals on 18 attempts and a single assist. Despite his limited impact, the Knicks held Indiana to only 42 second-half points, a stark contrast to the Pacers' usual offensive rhythm. Hart’s late-game rebounds and composure at the free-throw line stood out, and Towns’ fourth-quarter scoring lifted the team to its first win of the series. Mackenzie discussed RJ Bell’s "fourth quarter win share," an advanced stat favoring teams with strong late-game control, suggesting the Knicks had been more dominant across multiple quarters despite their earlier losses.

Looking to Game 4, the hosts note the Pacers as 2.5-point home favorites with a 220.5 total. Mackenzie and Munaf favor the Knicks and the under, emphasizing that a defensive-focused Knicks approach correlates strongly with low-scoring games. Brunson's role is expected to shift toward playmaking, reducing his shot volume. His under 29.5 points prop is Mackenzie’s best bet, backed by historical splits where he’s gone under this line 20 times versus 19 overs. Meanwhile, Towns is averaging over 25 points and 11 rebounds per game in the series and is projected to exceed both point and rebound props.

Transitioning to the Thunder-Timberwolves series, OKC leads 3-1. Game 3 saw a dominant Timberwolves blowout, but OKC rebounded in Game 4 behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s 40-point near triple-double and key support from Jalen Williams and the bench. SGA’s leadership was pivotal—his late-game assists demonstrated poise under pressure. Mackenzie praised SGA’s situational IQ and contrasted it with Anthony Edwards’ passive play. Edwards is averaging only 17 FGA per game, the lowest of his postseason career, and scored just 24 PPG despite efficient shooting. Postgame, he deflected criticism, saying he didn’t struggle because he didn’t take enough shots. Mackenzie critiqued this mindset, calling for Edwards to embrace higher usage when it matters most. With SGA elevating his impact and Edwards retreating, Mackenzie believes the Thunder’s edge in leadership and strategy is decisive.

In Game 5, OKC is an 8.5-point favorite. Munaf’s best bet is the Thunder team total over 114.5, citing strong home scoring trends. SGA’s over 6.5 assists is another key angle, supported by three overs in four games and an average of 8.5 APG. The Thunder have shot below their season average from three, suggesting positive regression is likely at home. Mackenzie projects a potential 120–102 OKC win and predicts they’ll close the series.

The hosts close with futures discussion, noting the NBA’s growing parity. The Thunder are +225 favorites for next season, while teams like the Knicks, Pacers, Cavs, and Wolves range from 8/1 to 12/1. Mackenzie emphasizes the historical rarity of such dispersed odds beyond the top team. He speculates Giannis may be traded, naming the Knicks and Rockets as possible destinations. He lauds Sam Presti’s roster-building and envisions OKC as a possible dynasty. In conclusion, Munaf and Mackenzie agree the Finals might be lopsided but promise strong betting value through derivatives and props.

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