The likelihood of the Big Ten and SEC fully "leaving" the NCAA in football is increasingly high, though it's crucial to understand what that actually means. It's not about a complete, overnight, and literal secession from the entire NCAA organization for all sports. Instead, it's a strategic move towards de facto independence and self-governance for the highest-revenue sports, particularly football.

Here's why this is the new likelihood:

1. The House v. NCAA Settlement is a Game-Changer:

• Direct Athlete Pay: The recent House v. NCAA settlement (awaiting final court approval but being acted upon) fundamentally changes the financial model of college sports. It allows schools to directly pay athletes for their Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) through a revenue-sharing model, with an estimated cap of around $20.5 million per school annually. This is a massive shift from the NCAA's traditional amateurism model.
• Liability Shift: The settlement also addresses billions in back-pay damages, with the NCAA and conferences sharing the burden. This financial liability is driving the richest conferences to seek greater control and reduce their exposure to future antitrust lawsuits.
• Enforcement Handover: Crucially, the settlement outlines a new enforcement regime where oversight of NIL deals and the revenue-sharing cap will largely shift from the NCAA to the Power Four conferences (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC) through a newly created Settlement Enforcement Committee.

2. Creation of the College Sports Commission (CSC) and "Power Four" Governance:

• A New Governing Body: Reports indicate that the Power Four conferences are actively working to establish a new entity, the College Sports Commission (CSC). This commission would effectively take over many of the regulatory and enforcement duties for football and men's basketball that the NCAA currently nominally holds.
• Direct Control: The Big Ten and SEC (often in alignment with the ACC and Big 12, though sometimes in opposition) want direct control over critical aspects like:
  • NIL Regulation: Enforcing the revenue-sharing cap and scrutinizing third-party NIL deals to prevent illicit "pay-for-play."
  • Roster Limits: Setting rules for roster sizes to manage costs under the new revenue-sharing model.
  • Transfer Portal Rules: Potentially creating their own rules for player transfers to bring more stability.
• Waiving Right to Sue: Institutions that join this new commission would reportedly waive their right to sue the commission, providing a legal shield that the NCAA currently lacks.

3. Diminished NCAA Authority and Enforcement:

• Legal Defeats: Years of antitrust lawsuits have stripped the NCAA of its ability to truly enforce rules around athlete compensation. State NIL laws have further eroded its power.
• Irrelevance in Top Football: The NCAA has long lacked direct authority over the College Football Playoff (CFP), which is the primary driver of revenue and national interest in the sport. The CFP is governed by the conferences.
• SEC Commissioner's Statements: SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey has openly voiced frustration, stating he's "looking for ideas to move us forward" and has even noted that people in his "room" are asking, "Why are we still in the NCAA?" This reflects a strong sentiment within the SEC for more autonomy.

4. College Football Playoff Control:

• SEC/Big Ten Dominance: The Big Ten and SEC are leveraging their power and influence over the CFP's future format. They've pushed for a 16-team playoff structure where they would receive significantly more automatic bids (e.g., four each) compared to the Big 12 and ACC (two each), and the Group of Five (one). This direct control over the sport's most lucrative postseason further cements their move towards independent governance.

What this means for "leaving":

The Big Ten and SEC aren't likely to hold a press conference announcing they're no longer "NCAA members." Instead, the "leaving" will manifest as:

• De Facto Separate Governing Bodies: For football (and likely men's basketball), the Power Four conferences will essentially operate under their own rules, enforced by the CSC, separate from the NCAA's broader governance structure.
• NCAA Becomes a "Holder" for Other Sports: The NCAA would likely continue to oversee academic eligibility, compliance for non-revenue sports ("Olympic sports"), and championships for those sports. Its role would be significantly reduced to that of a facilitator for the vast majority of collegiate athletics outside of the top-tier football and basketball.
• Financial Disconnect: The enormous revenues generated by football and men's basketball (especially media rights and CFP payouts) will be almost entirely controlled by the Power Four conferences, with minimal or no direct flow through the NCAA's traditional distribution models.

In essence, the "likelihood" isn't a dramatic walk-out, but rather a gradual but decisive shift of power that will render the NCAA largely irrelevant in the governance and financial oversight of college football's elite level. This process is already well underway due to the House v. NCAA settlement and the subsequent actions of the power conferences.

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