Might is right… until it isn’t. 2026 began with US commandos seizing Venezuela’s president in a zero-casualty operation that put the rest of the world on notice. But now, Donald Trump’s first prime-time address in nearly five weeks of war is worrying markets rather than reassuring them. The US president is telling affected nations to buy more oil from him – and, if they are so concerned about energy security in the Strait of Hormuz, to go in themselves and sort it out.

How should Gulf, European and Asian allies react to this “I break it, you fix it” approach to warfare? Is it already too late to walk away? And even if Washington washes its hands of the war it started with Israel, how can a fresh ten-year cycle of instability in the Middle East be avoided?

For the United States, is this merely a passing blemish? Will the midterm elections rescue those hoping for a return to the previous world order? History suggests that, despite setbacks – from the failed 1980 hostage rescue in Iran to the insurgencies that bogged the US down in Iraq and Afghanistan – the United States has ultimately emerged undiminished as the world’s leading superpower.

But now Trump has picked a fight with an enemy that is both a state and seemingly capable of deploying insurgent tactics. Is this a turning point – the moment after which the United States of America no longer appears quite so mighty?

 

Produced by François Picard, Aline Bottin, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.