In this episode of NucleCast, Adam and Chris Stone engage in a deep discussion about the concept of dynamic parity in nuclear deterrence. They explore the implications of parity versus superiority in military strategy, the challenges of arms control, and the political landscape affecting defense spending. The conversation highlights the need for modernization in the U.S. nuclear arsenal and the importance of understanding adversaries' capabilities and strategies.

Christopher Stone is a Senior Fellow for Space Deterrence Studies at the National Institute for Deterrence Studies and Host of Real Space Strategy podcast. He previously served as special assistant to the deputy assistant secretary of defense for space policy.

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Captain Retired Brad Baker discusses the development of the nuclear engineering program at the U.S. Naval Academy and the recruitment of nuclear propulsion officers. He emphasizes the importance of technical training and the opportunities available in the Navy for those with a nuclear engineering background. Brad also talks about the additive manufacturing program at the Naval Academy and its significance for the Navy. He envisions the merging of energetics and additive manufacturing, as well as the integration of artificial intelligence and machine learning in additive manufacturing and highlights the need for advancements in the qualification of additive manufacturing parts.

Proudly starting his military career as an enlisted Sailor, Dr. Brad Baker completed a distinguished 36-year career in the Navy retiring as a Captain with degrees in Marine Engineering, Joint Campaign Planning and Strategy, and a PhD in Mechanical Engineering. He served in a variety of leadership positions in submarines followed by over 10 years as a Permanent Military Professor at the United States Naval Academy where he was one of few military members promoted to Associate Professor. A strong advocate for the Naval Academy and education, he has the longest tenure as chairman of the Naval Academy’s Admission Board serving in that capacity for 7 years. He has received multiple award recognitions including teaching awards, selection as one of the 20 most influential academics in smart manufacturing in 2021, the first ever education and workforce development award by America Makes in 2024, and other awards. Following his retirement from the military, he became Principal Engineer for Energetics Technology Center bringing his leadership and technical expertise to expand the engineering analysis and strategic policy around energetic materials and advanced manufacturing. His technical areas of expertise include materials science, nuclear engineering, microscopy, and additive manufacturing.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Background

03:27 Establishing the Nuclear Engineering Program at the Naval Academy

05:52 Recruiting Nuclear Propulsion Officers

10:11 The Significance of Additive Manufacturing at the Naval Academy

17:29 Merging Energetics and Additive Manufacturing

20:39 Integrating Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in Additive Manufacturing

29:16 Advancements in Qualification of Additive Manufacturing Parts

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Dr. Adam Lowther joins guest host, Jim Howe, to discuss the current state of America's nuclear deterrent and proposes a new approach called Dynamic Parity. He explains that Dynamic Parity aims to create a balance of nuclear capability between the US and autocratic regimes, prevent superiority of adversaries, enhance extended deterrence, and manage the growth or decline of nuclear weapons. Lowther emphasizes the importance of transparency and clear communication to avoid ambiguity and misinterpretation. He also offers recommendations, including the need for a national debate on defense spending, prioritizing nuclear capabilities, and adhering to the Weinberger Doctrine before using force.

Dr. Adam Lowther is the host of NucleCast, the official podcast of the ANWA Deterrence Center, and Vice President for Research at the National Institute for Deterrence Studies. Previously, Dr. Lowther served as the Director of Strategic Deterrence Programs at the National Strategic Research Institute at the University of Nebraska, U.S. Strategic Command's University Affiliated Research Center. Prior to joining NSRI, Dr. Lowther served as the first director of the department of multi-domain operations (MDO) at the Army Management Staff College (AMSC), was a professor at the U.S. Army’s School of Advanced Military Studies, founding director of the School of Advanced Nuclear Deterrence Studies, Kirtland AFB and director of the Center for Academic and Professional Journals at the Air Force Research Institute (AFRI), Maxwell AFB.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Overview

00:31 Current State of American Nuclear Deterrent

05:09 The Changing Geopolitical Landscape

12:14 Introducing Dynamic Parity

20:20 Importance of Transparency and Clear Communication

22:44 Recommendations for a Stronger Nuclear Deterrent

28:39 Three Wishes for the Topic

32:06 Conclusion

https://thinkdeterrence.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Dynamic-Parity-Report.pdf

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In this episode of NucleCast, Rick Fisher, senior fellow with the International Assessment and Strategy Center, talks about the current state of North Korea's nuclear program. Fisher predicts that by the mid-2030s, North Korea will have the ability to conduct a catastrophic first strike against the United States. He credits the work of other experts in the field and discusses the development of North Korea's intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and multiple independently targetable warheads (MIRVs). Fisher also highlights the close relationship between China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran in their pursuit of global hegemony and the need for the United States to strengthen its nuclear deterrent capabilities and missile defense systems.

Mr. Richard D. Fisher, Jr. is a Senior Fellow with the International Assessment and Strategy Center. In 2024 he joined the Advisory Board of the Free Press Foundation and in 2016 he joined the Advisory Board of the Global Taiwan Institute and is a columnist for the Taipei Times.

He previously worked with the Center for Security Policy, Jamestown Foundation China Brief, U.S. House of Representatives Republican Policy Committee, and The Heritage Foundation. He is the author of China’s Military Modernization, Building for Regional and Global Reach (Praeger, 2008, Stanford University Press, 2010, Taiwan Ministry of National Defense translation 2012) Since 1996 he has covered scores of international arms exhibits and his articles have been published in the Jane’s Intelligence Review, Jane’s Defence Weekly, Aviation Week and Space Technology, Armed Forces Journal, Far Eastern Economic Review, Asian Wall Street Journal, Defense News, The Epoch Times and The Washington Times. He has studied at Georgetown University and received a B.A. (Honors) in 1981 from Eisenhower College.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Guest Introduction

02:02 North Korea's Growing Nuclear Threat

06:38 North Korea's Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles

08:06 Possible Collaboration with Pakistan on MIRV Capabilities

11:16 The Relationship Between North Korea and Russia

18:55 The Dangerous Alliance of China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran

25:56 The Need to Strengthen the United States' Nuclear Deterrent

32:22 Wishes for the Future

36:51 Conclusion

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Major David Phillips discusses his article on the feasibility, acceptability, and suitability of redeploying non-strategic nuclear weapons to South Korea. He highlights the need for the US to re-examine its policy goal of achieving denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and suggests that the redeployment of nuclear weapons would strengthen deterrence and assurance in the region. He emphasizes the importance of fully informed conversations among US policymakers and the need for bold action to ensure strategic stability in East Asia.

Major David Phillips (Jobs) is a Nuclear and Missile Operations Officer in the United States Air Force, current student at the School of Advanced Nuclear Deterrence Studies (SANDS), member of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Mid-Career Cadre, and former Nuclear Scholar with the CSIS. His latest nuclear policy research, “Nuclear Redeployment: A Roadmap for Returning Nonstrategic Nuclear Weapons to the Korean Peninsula,” examines the feasibility, acceptability, and suitability of the United States returning nuclear weapons to the Republic of Korea; this research was nominated and selected for the 2024 General Larry D. Welch Deterrence Writing Award. David has over 9,000 nuclear command and control alert hours in support of our national defense and strategic deterrent across three nuclear weapon platforms. He holds a Master of Business Administration degree and Bachelor of Science degree in Biology from the University of Denver as well as a graduate certificate in Great Power Competition from the Naval Postgraduate School.

(PDF) Nuclear Redeployment: A Roadmap for Returning Nonstrategic Nuclear Weapons to the Korean Peninsula (researchgate.net)

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Congratulations on Winning the Larry D. Welch Writing Award

02:06 Motivation Behind the Article: The Dangerous Situation on the Korean Peninsula

04:18 Main Findings: Feasibility, Acceptability, and Suitability of Redeployment

06:48 Costs and Affordability of the Redeployment Proposal

08:49 US Policy and the Acceptability of Redeploying Nuclear Weapons

11:20 Suitability of Redeployment as a Solution to Deterrence Challenges

23:35 Re-examining US Policy on Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula

29:59 Taking Bold Action for Strategic Stability in East Asia

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Part 2 of this history of Air Force Global Strike Command features former Commander Jim Kowalski. He discusses the challenges and accomplishments of standing up the Global Strike Command. The conversation covers topics such as basing decisions, culture change, resourcing, and the importance of maintaining a strong nuclear force. Lt. Gen. Kowalski emphasizes the need for a public awakening to the dangers posed by peer and near-peer adversaries and the importance of recognizing and honoring the mission of the nuclear force. He also shares a story about General LeMay's focus on excellence in the job.

General Kowalski was commissioned in 1979 through the ROTC program at the University of Cincinnati. He held a variety of operational commands, including a bomb squadron, an operations group, a bomb wing, and an air control wing over his 35-year career. Kowalski retired from active duty on 1 September 2015.

Kowalski's experience includes command of the 405th Air Expeditionary Wing in Southwest Asia where he led a combined wing of B-1Bs, E-3s and KC-135s for operation Iraqi Freedom. His previous staff assignments include Headquarters Air Combat Command, Headquarters U.S. Air Force and the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

In January 2009 he led the organization and activation of the Air Force’s first new major command in 27 years and subsequently served as the second Commander of Air Force Global Strike Command. In that position he oversaw the modernization of the Air Force’s nuclear-capable bomber and missile systems and developed the strategic forces five-year plan. His last assignment was Deputy Commander of U.S. Strategic Command.

A command pilot, he has over 4,600 flight hours, including 127 combat hours, in the B-1, B-52, and E-3. His decorations include the Defense Distinguished Service Medal, Bronze Star Medal, Air Medal, and Global War on Terrorism Expeditionary Medal.

Following military service, Kowalski was a vice-president for the Northrop Grumman Corporation. He supported the company’s portfolio of defense systems including the B-2, B-21, and the Minuteman III and Sentinel ballistic missile systems. In 2023, he retired from Northrop Grumman and now advises on management and defense issues

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Recap

00:49 Stand-up of the Global Strike Command

03:20 Basing Decisions and Location

06:29 Challenges of Activation and Moving Personnel

09:24 Structure, Authorities, and Culture Change

16:24 Resourcing: Personnel and Funding Challenges

19:29 Reemphasizing Nuclear Competencies and Strengths

25:32 Budget Constraints and Future Challenges

32:00 Wish for a Public Awakening to the Dangers

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In this Legacy Series, Lt. Gen. James Kowalski discusses the creation of Air Force Global Strike Command (AFGSC) in response to incidents that highlighted the need for improved nuclear enterprise management. The incidents included the accidental shipment of warheads and fuses, which raised concerns about operational oversight and surety processes. The stand-up of AFGSC aimed to consolidate the Air Force's nuclear enterprise and ensure a dedicated focus on nuclear deterrence. General Kowalski emphasizes the importance of maintaining a strong nuclear mission and integrating nuclear planning with conventional operations. The conversation will continue in a second episode.

General Kowalski was commissioned in 1979 through the ROTC program at the University of Cincinnati. He held a variety of operational commands, including a bomb squadron, an operations group, a bomb wing, and an air control wing over his 35-year career. Kowalski retired from active duty on 1 September 2015.

Kowalski's experience includes command of the 405th Air Expeditionary Wing in Southwest Asia where he led a combined wing of B-1Bs, E-3s and KC-135s for operation Iraqi Freedom. His previous staff assignments include Headquarters Air Combat Command, Headquarters U.S. Air Force and the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

In January 2009 he led the organization and activation of the Air Force’s first new major command in 27 years and subsequently served as the second Commander of Air Force Global Strike Command. In that position he oversaw the modernization of the Air Force’s nuclear-capable bomber and missile systems and developed the strategic forces five-year plan. His last assignment was Deputy Commander of U.S. Strategic Command.

A command pilot, he has over 4,600 flight hours, including 127 combat hours, in the B-1, B-52, and E-3. His decorations include the Defense Distinguished Service Medal, Bronze Star Medal, Air Medal, and Global War on Terrorism Expeditionary Medal.

Following military service, Kowalski was a vice-president for the Northrop Grumman Corporation. He supported the company’s portfolio of defense systems including the B-2, B-21, and the Minuteman III and Sentinel ballistic missile systems. In 2023, he retired from Northrop Grumman and now advises on management and defense issues.

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The Honorable Lucian Niemeyer, a leading voice in the policymaking community for advanced nuclear capabilities, discusses the work of the United Coalition for Advanced Nuclear Power (UCAN Power), a non-profit entity since 2021, in promoting advanced nuclear reactor deployment. He emphasizes the importance of nuclear power for grid reliability and carbon reduction. Niemeyer also highlights the need to develop a strong civilian nuclear workforce to support national defense and restore the nuclear industrial base. He discusses the potential of microreactors for powering military installations and the importance of accelerating the regulatory process for advanced nuclear technology. He calls for prioritizing grid reliability and restoring US global leadership in nuclear power.

Lucian’s national security expertise spans five decades as an Air Force and the Air National Guard Officer, Professional Staff Member on the Senate Armed Service Committee, and in the Pentagon and White House. Throughout his professional career, he has been a strong advocate for the use of clean, safe advanced nuclear power to enhance energy reliability and resiliency.

Niemeyer previously was appointed by the President and served as an Assistant Secretary of Defense managing the world’s largest real property portfolio valued at a trillion dollars. He was responsible for identifying and mitigating risk to national security programs, as well as improving energy and environmental resilience through alternate power generation development and investments in the protection of natural resources. During this time, he worked extensively with the Departments of Energy and Interior to balance the need for energy independence with the sustainment of national military capabilities.

He also served on the professional staff of the United States Senate Committee on Armed Service from 2003 to 2014 providing expertise and counsel on policies and programs for the energy programs supporting our Nation’s security.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Overview of UCAN Power

04:00 The Role of Nuclear Power in the Nuclear Triad

07:59 The Importance of a Strong Civilian Nuclear Workforce

13:45 The Use of Microreactors for Military Installations

17:45 Grid Reliability and the Need for Nuclear Power

25:07 Energy Priorities for the Next Administration

28:59 Bringing Advanced Nuclear Technology to the Nation

33:10 Closing Remarks and Call to Action

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Guest host, Jim Howe, interviews Andrew Metrick and Phil Shears from the Center for New American Security (CNAS) on escalation management in a protracted war with China. They discuss the implications of a potential conflict with China and the need for the US to adapt its deterrence strategies. The researchers conducted tabletop exercises to explore different scenarios and found unsettling logics that could compel the use of nuclear weapons. They also highlight the importance of alliance management and the need for the US to engage in discussions with allies like Japan and Australia.

Andrew Metrick is a Fellow with Defense Program at CNAS. His research focuses on the linkages between strategic objectives and operational plans with a specific interest in understanding the implications of protracted, global conflict against peer states. In this capacity, he employs a range of qualitative and quantitative research tools to include operations research, GIS analysis, OSINT collection, and wargaming. Prior to joining CNAS, he was a campaign analyst and wargamer at Northrop Grumman. In this role, he conducted strategic and theater level analysis to quantify munitions, posture, and logistics implications of peer conflict. This analysis and the associated models received multiple awards for innovation. Early in his career, he was an Associate Fellow with the International Security Program at CSIS where he published several studies focused on maritime issues in Asia and Europe. Metrick holds a MA in security studies from Georgetown University and a BA in international affairs from the George Washington University with an academic interest in military innovation theory and technology diffusion. His writing has appeared in Proceedings, War on the Rocks, Defense One, and CIMSEC.

Philip Sheers is a Research Assistant for the Defense Program. His research focuses on escalation management, protracted war, force posture, and nuclear deterrence. Sheers also supports the CNAS Gaming Lab and the CNAS Mission Brief speaker series. Prior to joining CNAS, he worked as a Risk Analyst at IPSOS Public Affairs and served as a Research Assistant to Dr. Alfred Connable. Sheers graduated from Kenyon College with a BA in International Studies and is completing his MA in Security Studies at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service, where he has also contributed to the Georgetown Security Studies Review.

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Professor Fei-Ling Wang tells NucleCast about his new book, 'The China Race: Global Competition for Alternative World Orders.' He argues that the United States and China are engaged in a global competition that goes beyond relative power and influence. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) seeks to transform the world order into a hierarchical system with China at the top, while the United States aims to preserve the existing order based on democratic values and the rule of law. Wang emphasizes that the outcome of this competition has high stakes, as losing could result in the withering away of the American way of life and the nationhood and statehood of the US. He also highlights the importance of providing Chinese students with a comprehensive education that includes social sciences, humanities, logic, and history, in order to foster critical thinking and a better understanding of the world.

Fei-Ling “Phil” Wang, Ph.D. (University of Pennsylvania), Professor at Sam Nunn School of International Affairs, Georgia Institute of Technology ([email protected]). His research interests are comparative and international political economy, U.S.-East Asian relations, and East Asia and China studies.

Wang has published nine books (two co-edited) in two languages including the latest, The China Race: Global Competition for Alternative World Order (SUNY Press, 2024). He has also published dozens of book chapters and journal articles in four languages, including op-eds in newspapers like The New York Times and Christian Science Monitor.

Wang taught at the U.S. Military Academy (West Point) and U.S. Air Force Academy (Colorado Springs), and held visiting and adjunct/honorary positions in institutions like European University Institute in Italy, Sciences Po in France, National Sun Yat-sen University and National Taiwan University in Taiwan, National University of Singapore, Renmin University and Anhui Normal University in China, University of Macau, University of Tokyo, and Sungkyunkwan University and Yonsei University in Korea.

Wang has guest-lectured in over 50 universities worldwide and appeared in many national and international news media such as Al Jazeera, AFP, AP, BBC, CNN, The Financial Times, The New York Times, Radio China International, South China Morning Post, VOA, The Wall Street Journal, and the Xinhua News Agency. He has had numerous research grants including a Minerva Chair grant, a Fulbright Senior Scholar grant and a Hitachi Fellowship. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations.

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