On The Market

Could today’s weak housing markets become tomorrow’s winners? One particular real estate demand “cycle” says that it’s more than possible. Everyone has written off real estate markets where inventory has risen, prices have dropped (substantially), and migration has slowed. But what happens when the pendulum swings in the other direction, and these dead markets return to life?

ResiClub’s Lance Lambert joins us to get into all things supply, demand, and most importantly—inventory. According to Lance, we’re in the 25th percentile for weak housing markets, and one certain variable could increase our risk significantly, and it’s not getting much better. A “catalyst for risk” could push demand down even more, stunting already suffering housing markets. But there is hope. 

Domestic and international migration surged post-pandemic but has come to a standstill in the past few years. When this migration “cycle” restarts, certain states, especially those with the weakest housing markets right now, could benefit. And if mortgage rates lower again, breaking more of the “lock-in effect,” the market could change quickly. But which markets could “swing up” the fastest? 

In This Episode We Cover

A real “catalyst for risk” that could cause an even weaker housing market 

The states that could see the biggest boosts once domestic and international migration return 

Investors: This is a sign that you should make an aggressive offer on a property 

Good news for interest rates? A “considerable improvement” in this key metric 

Why inventory is stabilizing in the hardest hit housing markets 

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

Sign Up for the On the Market Newsletter

Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area

Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

On the Market 413 - Real Estate Isn't as Safe From Inflation as You Think

ResiClub

Lance’s LinkedIn

Lance’s X 

Grab Dave’s Book, Real Estate by the Numbers

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Property taxes: banned. 

There are now more than a dozen states across the country seeking to limit, reduce, or outright eliminate property taxes—and the support behind the efforts is growing. As property taxes explode across the U.S., homeowners are facing an average 30% increase, curbing affordability efforts. As a result, Florida, North Dakota, Indiana, Texas, and other states are considering banning or heavily restricting property taxes.

Today, we’re getting into the Great Property Tax Revolt of 2026.

There are five types of property tax bills being proposed: assessment limitations, levy caps, homestead exemptions, credits and reductions, and tax swaps. These new property tax proposals could save homeowners thousands of dollars per year, but the side effects on local government budgets could be substantial. If we don’t have property taxes funding local services, what will?

We’ll get into all of it and the top states’ proposals for eliminating or limiting property taxes. One often-overlooked state is funding its property tax elimination without any extra cost to homeowners. How will it work? And if primary homeowners get property tax breaks, will investors have to fill in the gaps with higher taxes? This is what could happen next. 

In This Episode We Cover

Two states that could soon completely eliminate property taxes for primary residences 

The downside of lower (or no) property taxes: will other taxes jump as a result?

What could happen to property values if your state decides to eliminate property taxes

How property tax bans will affect real estate investors (will your tax bill go up or down?)

Why property taxes have exploded 30% (and whether new assessments could push them higher) 

States with the highest (and lowest) property tax rates in 2026 

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

⁠Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise⁠

⁠Join BiggerPockets for FREE⁠

⁠Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets⁠

⁠Sign Up for the On the Market Newsletter⁠

⁠Property Manager Finder⁠

On the Market 404 - 75,000 “Relistings” Could Hit the Market, But Inventory WON’T Explode? w/Mike Simonsen

Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis: How higher property taxes increase home affordability

⁠Dave's BiggerPockets Profile⁠

⁠Grab Dave’s Book, "Start with Strategy"

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The housing market is locked up once again before the most important time of the year—the spring homebuying season. With interest rates flying back up to the mid-6% range and inflation anxiety rearing back, Americans are once again stuck. And it’s not just first-time homebuyers; accidental landlords are hitting a new high as homes get even harder to sell.

So, is the spring homebuying season… canceled?

We’re back with this week’s headlines. First, we’ll start with the new job numbers—a massive increase over a very negative February. This is good news for the economy, but strong headwinds are hitting at the same time—rising mortgage rates, rising gas prices, and reignited inflation risks. It could be enough to throw off the traditionally strong spring homebuying season altogether.

Accidental landlords are forming fast as they turn their flips, former primary residences, or inherited homes into rental properties. If you’re thinking about doing this—stop. James has strong cautionary advice for anyone about to become a first-time landlord. 

Finally, everyone is talking about data centers—do we invest in them or curb their construction? Here’s why Dave, Kathy, and James are very cautious about them.

In This Episode We Cover

New jobs report numbers and the strong bounce back from February 2026

Will oil prices flip us back to high inflation? What this means for mortgage rates

Real-time trends on homebuyers and what we’re seeing in the market

Why James says many people should not become accidental landlords and sell at a loss instead

Are data centers really worth the hype? Why we’re not investing in them (yet), even with the growth of AI

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

Sign Up for the On the Market Newsletter

Property Manager Finder

Stories from Today’s Show:

Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

James' BiggerPockets Profile

Kathy's BiggerPockets Profile

Grab Dave’s Book, "Start with Strategy"

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Inflation is rising again, and everywhere on social media, we’re hearing people say, “Buy real estate!” Property is supposed to be the ultimate inflation hedge. The problem? Real estate may not save you from the inflation heading our way. In fact, home prices could get worse if things continue this way. But how?

For decades, we’ve been told that real estate is the ultimate inflation hedge. It’s tracked rising prices very well and has been one of the most championed “safe” assets to buy. But do real estate prices always follow the path of inflation? What happens if consumer prices rise but renters are paid less, a recession hits, nobody can pay their bills, you can’t pay your mortgage, and home prices fall? 

This is a reality that real estate gurus tend not to think through—the other side of inflation. Today, we’re getting into it. Which inflation benefits real estate prices the most? Which of the four possible inflation scenarios could unfold as the world tilts toward uncertainty, and which assets protect your wealth regardless of the inflation rate? 

In This Episode We Cover

Is real estate really a good hedge against inflation? Most people assume incorrectly 

The two types of inflation and how they (oppositely) affect real estate prices 

Four future scenarios we could see if inflation rises, falls, or stays the same 

What’s causing rising inflation right now? An April 2026 inflation update 

The four ways real estate will benefit during a traditionally high-inflation period

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

⁠⁠Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise⁠⁠

⁠⁠Join BiggerPockets for FREE⁠⁠

⁠⁠Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets⁠⁠

⁠⁠Sign Up for the On the Market Newsletter⁠⁠

⁠⁠Find Investor-Friendly Lenders⁠⁠

⁠⁠Dave's BiggerPockets Profile⁠⁠

Center for American Progress: Trump Administration Tariffs Could Result in 450,000 Fewer New Homes Through 2030

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This could be the best real estate “buy” of 2026. While mortgage rates are climbing back up and everyone is waiting out the housing market—again—one man is going all in: James Dainard.

If you’ve listened to On the Market for a while, you know James is never not buying—but what he’s buying changes by the week, or even by the day. Last year, James got burned (a bit) on house flipping and new development, but reassessed his almost unbeatable investing framework and is now saying there’s one particular asset class he’s hungry to acquire—and it’s on serious discount.

So today, we’re picking the brain of the man with 1,000+ rental units who’s flipped thousands of homes and knows the market better than any economist, since he’s on the ground buying and selling every single day.

James shares the “best buy” of 2026, the one thing you must account for if you’re flipping or doing any renovation project, the single best rental for small investors to start with (and how to find them on-market at discount), and the one high-return deal he’d do as a new real estate investor.

This is what’s working in real estate right now in 2026. 

In This Episode We Cover

The overlooked (and underpriced) properties James is heavily targeting in 2026 

How to find on-market, discounted rentals perfect for small investors 

The “buyer psychology” changes in the market that flippers must be aware of 

One high-return real estate deal new investors should heavily consider in 2026 

One cost to add to every renovation project to ensure you stay on budget 

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

⁠Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise⁠

⁠Join BiggerPockets for FREE⁠

⁠Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets⁠

⁠Sign Up for the On the Market Newsletter⁠

⁠Find Investor-Friendly Lenders⁠

⁠On the Market 410 - The First Domino? Investors Pull Billions as Real Estate Bank Runs Return⁠

⁠Dave's BiggerPockets Profile⁠

BiggerPockets Real Estate 1100 - The Ultimate Underrated Rental Property (for Small Investors) w/Brian Burke 

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A $3 trillion market is beginning to crack. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has sounded off, saying there are “cockroaches” in the system. Investors are pulling billions of dollars out of the market, and real estate could be affected in a massive way.

This is the private credit crisis explained. 

When big investors go to buy or build, they don’t always take money from a bank; instead, they get loans from the private credit market—lenders who operate outside of the traditional lending apparatus. But over the past four years, commercial real estate has seen values tank, income drop, and demand shrink for everything from office to multifamily and more. And the people who lend their money to private credit are starting to get nervous.

Billions of dollars have already been pulled out of the market, with many investors going on “bank run” style withdrawal sprees. But, this isn’t only a commercial real estate problem—residential real estate could be affected if enough money leaves the systems.

So what happens next? Will real estate prices fall even further as a result? Are we on the brink of a credit crisis mirroring the 2008 subprime bubble? We’re breaking it all down in this episode. 

In This Episode We Cover

Private credit explained: who’s lending the money and what is being leveraged

“Cracks” begin to form, and why investors are pulling billions of dollars out of the system

Riskier commercial real estate debt that could trigger a “debt spiral” of serious proportions

Why residential real estate is not completely safe if commercial real estate starts to fall further

The one thing worrying experts the most about this hidden credit crisis

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

Sign Up for the On the Market Newsletter

Find Investor-Friendly Lenders

On the Market 410 - The First Domino? Investors Pull Billions as Real Estate Bank Runs Return

Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

Grab the Book, "Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing"

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Investors are pulling billions of dollars (yes, billions) out of real estate investments at a record pace as “bank run” style withdrawals return. Blackstone has already seen record withdrawal requests of over $3 billion. Could this be the first domino to fall that could set off a private credit crisis, pulling multifamily prices down even more? 

We’re back with this week’s biggest headlines—from mortgage rates rising back to six-month highs to corporate headquarters being converted into housing—there’s almost too much to talk about happening in the housing market. First, mortgage interest rates flip as buyers get pushed back out of the market, but this could lead to even bigger discounts for investors. 

A lonely corporate headquarters building gets greenlit for conversion to housing. If this trend continues, we could see relief in housing supply strain. Investors pull a record amount of money from real estate investments—just as commercial real estate needs it most (this will have consequences). Finally, the “millionaire tax” makes its way through one state—and it could kill one type of real estate investing. 

In This Episode We Cover

Investors go on a bank run—why they’re pulling billions of dollars from investments

Mortgage rates boomerang back to around 6.5%, but investor deals could get even better

The newest housing inventory opportunity and how to make a CEO’s office your new living room

The millionaire tax is kicking profitable investors out of this popular market

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

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BiggerPockets Real Estate 1207 - 2026 Mortgage Rate Predictions: This “X Factor” Could Change Everything

Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

Henry's BiggerPockets Profile

James' BiggerPockets Profile

Kathy's BiggerPockets Profile

NewsTimes: 200 apartments floated at Duracell’s ‘gorgeous’ former world HQ in Bethel as workforce shrinks to 20

Ken McElroy: The Liquidity Problem No One Is Talking About

Homes.com: As Washington 'millionaires tax' heads to governor, some agents see homeowners list

Grab Dave’s Book, "Real Estate by the Numbers"

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A “structural shift” is happening in the housing market—one that will permanently change how home prices appreciate. We could be experiencing the last era of steady, rising home prices as we enter into a new reality—a reality without Baby Boomers owning real estate.

For years, a “silver tsunami” has been predicted to “crash” the housing market. With Baby Boomers downsizing, aging in place, and passing away, the inevitable wave of inventory was supposed to hit the housing market with fury—but it hasn’t happened, at least not yet. With the average Baby Boomer now in their 70s, surely we should start to see inventory fly on the market…right?

Today, we’re getting into when (and if) the silver tsunami will hit, why the end of the Baby Boomer generation could change the home price growth trajectory permanently, and what will unfold in the 2030s (and beyond) that could cause serious headwinds in the housing market. But if it all comes true, investors will have the opportunity of a lifetime to get something many have assumed is gone—cash flow.

In This Episode We Cover

The “silver tsunami” explained, and why it hasn’t crashed the housing market

Inheritance begins to peak—how many heirs will keep vs. sell their parents’ homes?

The “structural shift” that could change home price appreciation forever 

Just how much of the housing market Baby Boomers own (it’s a LOT)

The return of cash flow? Why real estate investors will get another opportunity to buy

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

Sign Up for the On the Market Newsletter

Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area

Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

On the Market 403 - You Have Until 2031: What Happens When Population Goes Negative?

On the Market 404 - 75,000 “Relistings” Could Hit the Market, But Inventory WON’T Explode?

On the Market 408 - Melody Wright’s Honest Take On the “Worse Than 2008” Crash Claim

Real Estate by the Numbers

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A housing price correction “worse than 2008”? That’s the headline of Melody Wright’s widely-cited Newsweek interview, but today, she’s giving her full, honest take on what she really meant.

Melody got into the mortgage industry in 2006, riding the subprime wave up until it popped two years later. The lender she worked for went bankrupt in 2012, as Melody witnessed the fallout firsthand. From there, her new job became analyzing housing data to ensure this never happened again. And looking at the data—delinquencies rising, inventory spiking, a quiet “credit crisis” rarely talked about—Melody believes we could be on the verge of another serious correction.

Today, we’re getting her detailed opinion on whether we should expect a housing crash, correction, or a slow, stable return to affordability. We talk at length about the rising delinquency rates (much of which is not public) signaling serious trouble for the housing market and borrowers, and the “credit crisis” brewing behind the scenes that could upend the market (especially for investors).

This is what Melody Wright really thinks will happen next.

In This Episode We Cover

Melody’s real opinion on the “Worse Than 2008” claim 

Why Melody believes home prices could correct up to 50% in some markets

The “credit crisis” brewing that uncovers a very weak homebuyer pool

Delayed delinquency? Why more borrowers are beginning to inch closer to losing their homes

The white-collar recession that will have serious effects on pricey real estate markets

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

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Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

On the Market 407 - The White-Collar Recession Means More for Real Estate Than You Think

Newsweek Price Correction ‘Worse Than 2008’ Coming To US Housing Market—Analyst

Reuters JPMorgan marks down value of loan portfolios of some private credit groups, source says

Realtor Housing Market Tilts in Favor of Buyers as Active Inventory Climbs

Grab Dave’s Book, "Real Estate by the Numbers"

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The next recession is already here. You may not see it, but you definitely feel it. Companies are quietly letting go of dozens or hundreds of workers at a time, interviews are getting harder to land, and those around you who made the most money are suddenly just trying to get by.

This is the “white collar recession”—and a new report could prove that it’s about to get much more severe. And what happens when the highest earners, those who buy homes and can get approved for mortgages, suddenly vanish from the housing market? The impacts could be widespread, and a permanent shift in real estate could be on the horizon.

Today, we’re unpacking it all—which jobs are most (and least) at risk, what will happen to the housing market as high-income earners lose their salaries (and ability to buy homes), and the markets most reliant on these types of white-collar jobs.

But it’s not all bad news. New opportunities could be emerging in select markets as a few major industries see stability, and one type of investment property becomes the most sought-after of all.

In This Episode We Cover

The “white collar recession” and the jobs most at risk due to AI

Why this time it’s different, and a recession may be inevitable 

How the housing market will permanently shift as homebuyers lose their income

The most stable housing markets with the best employment potential

One type of investment property every investor needs to keep an eye on (demand could rise)

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

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Find Investor-Friendly Lenders

On The Market 401 - Off by Nearly 1 MILLION Jobs? Why New Jobs Report Will Impact Real Estate 

Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

Anthropic Report

Grab the Book, "Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing"

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