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Just a day after India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty in response to the Pahalgam terror attack that killed 26 civilians, Pakistan retaliated by calling the move an “Act of War.” Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif chaired an emergency meeting, announcing a series of countermeasures—halting all trade with India, expelling Indian diplomats, closing airspace to Indian carriers, and putting the 1972 Simla Agreement “in abeyance.”

But can Pakistan afford a war? The numbers say no. Foreign reserves stand at just $11.09 billion, barely covering two months of imports. With $131 billion in external debt and $100 billion due in repayments over the next four years, Islamabad is walking a fiscal tightrope. Its economic lifeline, a $7 billion IMF bailout, is arriving in slow trickles amid warnings of “formidable vulnerabilities.” Political instability adds to the volatility.

While rhetoric from Islamabad is heating up, experts warn a full-blown escalation could tip Pakistan deeper into economic crisis.

Pakistan’s closure of airspace to Indian airlines is already causing turbulence. Airlines like Air India, IndiGo, SpiceJet, and Akasa Air are now forced to reroute via the UAE or Iran, adding over an hour of flight time. The result? A potential 35–40% surge in international ticket prices, according to aviation experts.

Affected routes include key flights to the US, UK, Europe, and Middle East. Meanwhile, India has suspended visa services for Pakistani nationals. Though ICAO permits such restrictions for security, bilateral coordination is now unlikely, signaling worsening diplomatic frostbite.

Hospitals in India are rushing to treat Pakistani patients before a May 1 deadline, with critical medical cases—especially children—caught in the crossfire.

India’s EV policy may soon get a revamp—and Tesla could be the biggest beneficiary. A senior government official said India is open to revising its electric vehicle manufacturing policy once tariff terms are finalised under the India-US Bilateral Trade Agreement.

At stake is the Scheme to Promote Manufacturing of Electric Passenger Cars in India, which slashes import duties from 70–80% to 15% for up to 8,000 imported EVs annually for five years. While the scheme had no takers initially, Tesla’s February hiring spree in India signals renewed interest.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, commenting on the broader trade talks, said, “There’s a serious lack of reciprocity” with India. With both sides looking to strike balance on tariffs and access, Tesla’s India debut could mark a turning point in EV manufacturing for the region.

India’s auto giant Maruti Suzuki is expected to post a muted Q4 today, with revenue growth of 7% and profit likely down by 4%, say brokerages. Margins are squeezed by higher marketing spends and discounts, with Ebitda likely shrinking by 44 basis points.

Inventory levels have surged—from 9 days in January to over 40 now—forcing the company to scale back wholesale dispatches. Still, Maruti sold over 6 lakh vehicles in Q4.

Key things to watch:

Despite the slowdown, Maruti’s stock has climbed 6% this year, outpacing the Nifty Auto index. But investors are looking to today’s earnings call for clues on whether the momentum can return.

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