Send us a textJapan’s central bank raised interest rates last week for the first time in seventeen years, ending the world’s only remaining negative interest rate regime. The Bank of Japan also abandoned its yield curve control policy which has been in place since 2016, which saw it buying Japanese government bonds to keep longer term interest rates from rising. It has however maintained bond buying at the same pace for now.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https:/...

Send us a textAfter a decade of decline, bankruptcy filings around the world are on the rise. In the United States, business bankruptcy filings rose more than 40 percent last year and non-business bankruptcy filings rose 16 percent.Bankruptcies in England and Wales just hit a 30-year high according to the latest figures.In Japan, corporate bankruptcies involving a total liability of 10 million Yen or more increased year on year by more than 35 percent.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The ...

Send us a textElon Musk filed a lawsuit last week against OpenAI and its CEO Sam Altman, alleging the company’s deal with Microsoft compromised the start-up’s original mission. Musk is seeking disgorgement, additional unspecified damages and specific performance. Let’s go through these claims one by one, see what legal experts have been saying about the case. We will also discuss the Open AI memo saying that the claims in this lawsuit suit stem from Elon’s regrets about not being i...

Send us a textOffice mortgage default rates are rising around the world which could mean problems for the banks, insurance companies and pension funds who lent money to real estate investors.Let’s discuss the distressed sales of office buildings that have been happening over the last few months, why New York Community Bancorp is down more that 65% year to date, what banking regulators are saying about loan portfolios at large US banks and how banks are hedging their loan books. Patrick's Book...

Send us a textA new Harvard Business School study analyzed the impact of giving AI tools, to white collar workers at Boston Consulting Group.In the study, management consultants who were told to use Chat GPT when carrying out a set of consulting tasks were far more productive than their colleagues who were not given access the tool. Not only did AI-assisted consultants carry out tasks 25 per cent faster and complete 12 per cent more tasks overall, but their work was also assessed to be 40 per...

Send us a textAs the global fight over manufacturing share and exports heats up, with surplus economies doubling down on exports, and deficit economies discussing protectionist strategies, the policies of the largest global economies are in clear conflict. Are trade wars likely, how do they work, and can the global economy regain balance?Michael Pettis Books:The Great Rebalancing: https://amzn.to/4bDIGKfTrade Wars Are Class Wars: https://amzn.to/3I2xHMHPatrick's Books:Statistics For The Tradi...

Send us a textAdam Neumann has been trying to buy WeWork - the company he cofounded out of bankruptcy — allegedly with the help of the hedge fund manager Dan Loeb of Third Point.Neumann’s new real estate company "Flow" has sent a letter to WeWork requesting that they consider its takeover approach. Flow has already raised $350 million from the venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, disclosed in the letter that Loeb’s Third Point would help finance a transaction. The Financial Times c...

Send us a textA Delaware court this week voided Elon Musk’s $55.8 billion dollar pay deal with Tesla. The voiding of these stock options erases about a quarter of Musk’s current wealth.The judgement came in response to a shareholder lawsuit launched by Richard Tornetta who owned nine shares in the company. Judge Kathaleen McCormick found Tesla directors, who negotiated the pay package, were "perhaps starry eyed" due to Musk's "superstar appeal" and did not adequately inform shareholders...

Send us a textJesse Lauriston Livermore was a famed American stock trader known for his huge successes and devastating failures in the early 20th century. Starting as a "chalkboard boy" in a Boston brokerage, he became hugely wealthy as a trader first in "bucket shops" and then on the exchange in New York. Livermore made millions in the Panic of 1907, the roaring 20's and in the 1929 market crash. His experiences are chronicled in the classic "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" by Edwin...

Send us a textBig startups are shutting down. More than 3000 private venture backed startups failed in the last year. Of the startups raising money, 19% were funded at a lower valuation than in prior funding rounds. 38% of VCs disappeared from dealmaking last year and more than a quarter of a million workers at tech companies lost their jobs over the same period. US corporate bankruptcy filings closed out 2023 with the most filings since 2010. The year has been described as a mass extin...