McAlvany Weekly Commentary

Efficient Market Hypothesis is just wrong A crash worse than 2008? A new, better, testable, economic model Andrew Smithers: Look Out! Bad Models Equal Bad Outcomes September 14, 2022 “But I must say I welcome any qualified economist who has the guts to say, “Smithers’ views are worth debating. I’m not going to say that […]

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McAlvany Weekly Commentary

UK faces 18% inflation You can’t fix inflation harm with deflation Choose your executioner, Greek or Italian From Russia With Love: Europe’s Energy Catastrophe September 7, 2022 “European stress is increasing as financial stress increases. You’re really talking about social anxieties and political stress that gets played out. TPI [transmission protection instrument] acting as a […]

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McAlvany Weekly Commentary

Jay Powell punches the market in the face European energy costs could rise 10-fold this winter Gold up 20% in Yen for the year The Dollar Is Temporarily the Best Horse (In the Glue Factory) August 31, 2022 “Europe, and Germany in particular, is experiencing nothing short of the U.S experience in the 1970s. The […]

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McAlvany Weekly Commentary

Germany shocked by 37.2% producer price explosion John Taylor “We have inflation all over the place” Iran stockpiles 3800 kgs of enriched weapons grade uranium China Gobbles Up 80 Tons Of Gold August 23, 2022 “The discussion has been around these enduring issues of Chinese economic growth, Chinese economic numbers being the first point of […]

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McAlvany Weekly Commentary

Market surge creates a Catch-22 for wannabe Bulls Wages rise, but not enough to keep up with inflation China shocks with interest rate cut, hoping to delay a larger disaster Everything Rally is Awesome—or Maybe Not August 17, 2022 “A true bear market has a lot further to run because nothing has been learned, and […]

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McAlvany Weekly Commentary

Fed says it will stop telling the markets its next move Quick rally in stocks doesn’t change long term bear trend Biden “given” really good jobs “surprise” The Need For Risk Control In A Schizophrenic Market August 10, 2022 “We had a year and a half, two years ago, the transitory references. Early on, as […]

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McAlvany Weekly Commentary

Talk is cheap, follow-through is what matters. Former Dallas Fed Chief says Pelosi took advantage of inside information. Gold tests $1675 then bounces $100 higher. Whitehouse Declares “Not A Recession,” … Move Along Citizen August 2, 2022 “As we exist in a stagflationary environment and contemplate stepping a first foot into recession, Congress’s way of […]

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McAlvany Weekly Commentary

Can China survive when the debts cannot be paid? Interest rates spike worldwide while Japan fights against hope to keep rates down Dollar and gold rise as currencies fall Doug Noland: A Core Crisis (from the Periphery) July 27, 2022 “The world has never seen anything like what we’ve witnessed for the past 13 years. […]

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McAlvany Weekly Commentary

Gold provides certainty in uncertain times China feels the pressure of loaning good money to bad bets Central Banks losing credibility fast Peak To Peak To Peak Inflation, The New “Transitory” July 19, 2022 “They are losing the last vestiges of credibility, and somehow think that projecting an image is sufficient to carry the day. […]

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McAlvany Weekly Commentary

Companies weaned on easy credit now facing bankruptcy Milton Friedman warned you can’t fight inflation without loosing jobs China facing credit crises, high yield debt at 24.9% yield Formerly Free Money Now Getting Very Expensive July 12, 2022 “During the worst of the pandemic, if you go back to the spread between high yield and […]

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