Geopolitical rupture has been a reality in the Arctic since February 2022, but not all forms of Arctic governance have been equally affected. While the Arctic Council has struggled to function since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Central Arctic Ocean Fisheries Agreement has remained resilient, representing perhaps the last bastion of the otherwise defunct idea of Arctic exceptionalism. What can these contrasting experiences tell us about the future of Arctic governance, and Western engagement with Russia?

In this episode, Ambassador David Balton, Senior Fellow with the Belfer Center’s Arctic Initiative at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government, discusses these two important governance regimes and what their divergent trajectories reveal about the possibilities and limits of Arctic cooperation in the current geopolitical environment. Having played a central role in both, including chairing the negotiations that produced the CAO Fisheries Agreement and serving as Chair of the Senior Arctic Officials during the previous U.S. Arctic Council chairmanship, Ambassador Balton also offers recommendations for how the Arctic Council—now 30 years old—might be revitalized despite today’s geopolitical challenges.

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Situated near Russia’s Kola Peninsula—home to the Northern Fleet and a core component of Russia’s sea-based nuclear deterrent, including ballistic-missile submarines—the Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard lies within the perimeter of Moscow’s Arctic bastion defence and has become an increasingly important potential flashpoint in the context of heightened NATO–Russia tensions. In this episode, Prof. Katarzyna Zysk discusses her article “Svalbard’s Deterrence Gap” and examines recent Russian hybrid activities in Svalbard, Russia’s evolving military posture in the Arctic and Baltic regions since the invasion of Ukraine, and how NATO can bridge Svalbard’s emerging deterrence gap. The discussion also includes the implications of growing Russia–China cooperation for Svalbard and the Arctic, and considers how the eventual end of the war in Ukraine could reshape security dynamics across Northern Europe. Also discussed is the recent NATO exercise Cold Response that Prof. Zysk participated in.

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The strategic location of Greenland within the proposed Golden Dome missle defense system has been one of the Trump Administration’s main arguments for acquiring the massive Arctic island. To explain how the futuristic system would work, and why Greenland and the Arctic are crucial for protecting North America against ballistic and hypersonic cruise missles, Dr. Troy Bouffard, director of the University of Alaska-Fairbanks Center for Arctic Security and Resilience, joins the podcast. He also discusses the strained—yet in some sectors stable—state of US-European and US-Canadian relations, the indispensible role of NORAD, and the great importance of recent NATO activities like Arctic Sentry and Cold Response for maintaining strong Transatlantic ties for Arctic security in turbulent times.

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Greenland’s substantial reserves of rare earth elements and other critical raw materials have become a prominent aspect of geopolitical posturing in the Arctic. For many observers, the Trump administration’s interest in acquiring Greenland has been driven in large part by a desire to secure access to strategic minerals and reduce U.S. dependence on Chinese supply chains. The European Union likewise sees Arctic natural resources as a means for reducing dependency on China.

But how viable is large-scale resource development in Greenland? What political, economic, environmental and logistical obstacles stand in the way? And how significant is China’s current Arctic engagement compared to several years ago when it actively pursued mining ventures, infrastructure investments, and scientific cooperation across Greenland and the wider region?

In this special episode of Polar Geopolitics, recorded at the Arctic Frontiers conference, we explore these questions with two leading experts. Gørild Heggelund, Research Professor and China specialist at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute, and Nick Bæk Heilmann, Senior Associate at Kaya Partners in Copenhagen, offer insights into Greenland’s resource potential, the strategic competition surrounding critical minerals, and the evolving role of China in the Arctic.

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The emphatic European response to the Greenland Crisis has made clear its growing interest in the Arctic at a time when the European Union is working on an updated Arctic policy. How will a radically altered geopolitical environment influence EU policy, what role does the Arctic play in Europe’s relationship with the United States, and has the crisis created an opportunity for the EU to reassert itself in a region sometimes seen as an arena of Great Power Competition between the US, Russia and China? To discuss these and related topics, Dr. Andreas Raspotnik, Senior Researcher at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute and a specialist in European Union’s interests and policies in the Arctic, joins the podcast in a special episode recorded live on location at the Arctic Frontiers conference in Tromsø, Norway.  

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From the definitive end of Arctic exceptionalism to the long-term implications of the Greenland Crisis, Prof. Klaus Dodds and Dr. Gosia Smieszek-Rice engage in a big picture discussion on Arctic megatrends that are shaping the geopolitical future of the circumpolar North. Has the “Global Arctic” of a decade ago been replaced by a new era of Great Power Competition in which Europe finds itself in a “crush zone” between Russia, China and the United States? Can the Arctic Council ever return to its previous role as a forum for international cooperation, science diplomacy and the participation of indigenous peoples’ organizations in Arctic governance? This is one of the most informative and insightful episodes since the Polar Geopolitics podcast started in 2018. It was recorded live on location at the Arctic Frontiers conference in Tromsø, Norway.

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Two prominent Greenlandic voices join this special episode of the Polar Geopolitics podcast,

recorded on location at the Arctic Frontiers conference in Tromsø, Norway. Aaja Chemnitz is one of the two Greenlandic members of the Danish Parliament, and Dr. Sara Olsvig is a former minister of the government of Greenland and the current chair of the Inuit Circumpolar Council. They discuss a range of topics including the place of Greenland in the world and within the Kingdom of Denmark, Greenland’s guiding principle of “nothing about us without us”, relations with the United States and the European Union, Arctic indigenous peoples organizations and the Arctic Council, the security of Greenland and the Arctic, and the socio-economic and political future of Greenland, including the question of independence.

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This is a REPRISE of an episode of Polar Geopolitics originally published on 28 March 2025

Jeppe Kofod, Denmark’s foreign minister during Trump’s first Greenland gambit, joins the podcast to analyze the current situation and share insights from his central role in resolving the previous U.S.-Denmark-Greenland crisis in 2019.

Polar Geopolitics has now started a Substack where we will provide edited episode transcripts, original articles and analyses, and other content on geopolitics, the Arctic and Antarctica:  https://polargeopolitics.substack.com 

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This is a REPRISE of an episode of Polar Geopolitics originally published on 15 April 2024

“Greenland is the most dynamic piece in the new Arctic security jigsaw puzzle”, according to a new book that applies the international relations theory of securitization to analyze the security and geopolitics of Greenland and the Arctic. Marc Jacobsen, Ole Wæver and Ulrik Pram Gad, co-editors and authors of Greenland in Arctic Security: (De)securitization Dynamics under Climatic Thaw and Geopolitical Freeze, join the podcast to discuss the configuration of Arctic security and explain how relations between Nuuk, Copenhagen and Washington, as well as issues such as Greenlandic national identity, independence and sovereignty, are strongly influencing the future of the region.

Marc Jacobsen is an Assistant Professor at the Royal Danish Defence College; Ole Wæver is a Professor at the University of Copenhagen; and Ulrik Pram Gad is a Senior Researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies. Greenland in Arctic Security is available from the University of Michigan Press: https://press.umich.edu/Books/G/Greenland-in-Arctic-Security2

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What geopolitical reasoning is driving Donald Trump’s incessant pursuit of Greenland? As Deputy Assistant to the President and Chief of Staff of the White House National Security Council during the first Trump administration, Alexander B. Gray was closely involved with the initial U.S. attempt to acquire Greenland in 2019. In this episode of the podcast, Mr. Gray, who is today CEO of the strategic advisory firm American Global Strategies, explains why he shares Donald Trump’s strong belief that Greenland should be situated within the political orbit of the United States. He also discusses the role of Greenland, the Arctic and Antarctic, as well as Canada, as key components of the concept of Hemispheric Defense, and explains why he advocates an America First policy for Antarctica.

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