Poll Hub

Perhaps, the great Yogi Berra said it best -- It’s deja vu all over again!

The lack of distinction between public opinion polls and forecasters in 2016 created a false aura of inevitability around Hillary Clinton. Two years later, pollsters witness emerging, untested polling methods that run the risk of muddying the electoral narrative, once again. Are these polling techniques good or bad science? What do pollsters and analysts need to do to better communicate the meaning behind the numbers to the public? The Poll Hub team weighs in with special guest Harry Enten, Senior Writer & Analyst for CNN Politics.

Then, The Marist Poll discusses a term to better explain what the electoral landscape looks like in some of 2018’s most competitive races. Find out who the persuadables are in this week’s Poll Hub.

Plus, President Donald Trump is highly popular, at least among Republicans. What does that mean in 2018?

In this episode of Poll Hub, Pallavi Gogoi, NPR’s Chief Business Editor, joins the table to discuss the latest NPR/Marist Poll results. The just-released survey focuses on Americans’ shopping habits and the prevalence of online purchases. As the group reveals, Amazon leads the pack when it comes to online merchants, and shoppers place a great deal of trust in this online retailer.

But first, Harry Enten, Senior Writer & Analyst for CNN Politics, shares the latest developments in the 2018 midterm elections. While Enten notes that talk of a “wave” is premature, certain themes are emerging. Enten discusses the role of women in the Democratic primary as well as what should and should not be included in a likely voter model.

Roseanne Barr’s racially charged tweet this week brought race relations back into the headlines. In this week’s episode of Poll Hub, the team takes a look at how attitudes about race differ from generation to generation and how those views have evolved over time.

Then, the Associated Press revised the AP Stylebook to include a chapter on polls. The Poll Hub crew speaks with Emily Swanson, Polling Editor at the Associated Press, about the decision to make the change and the key recommendations on polls and polling the AP now provides to journalists.

With five months to go until the congressional midterm elections, debate exists about whether or not the Democrats will create a blue wave. In this week’s Poll Hub, a look at the perceived schism within the Democratic Party. Are progressive candidates better positioned than moderate candidates to take on Republicans in the fall? Is there an enthusiasm gap? Is primary turnout an indicator of what’s to come in November? And, why might both parties lack a consistent message during the general election cycle? The Poll Hub crew addresses those questions and more.

Then, yet another school shooting rocked the nation on Friday. According to the Pew Research Center, a majority of American teenagers are now concerned that a shooting will occur at their school. The Poll Hub team takes a look at the statistics and addresses why this school shooting differs from those in the past.

And, what’s the future of polling? The Marist Poll’s very own Director of Research and Data Analysis, Mike Conte, joins the round table. He has a report from the 73rd annual conference of the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR).

The 73rd annual conference of the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) is underway in Denver, Colorado. In this episode of Poll Hub, special guest Randy Brown joined us from the conference to discuss the focus of his latest research. Brown, Vice President of Edison Research, explained how Edison’s measurement of Americans’ audio consumption yielded the conclusion that non-probability panels should not be the only method used when measuring online behavior.

And, talk about creating buzz! How one Democratic candidate in the NY-19 race used a poll to gain attention. Was the tactic credible or incredibly misleading? The Poll Hub team breaks it down. Plus, what’s on pollsters’ minds going into the mid-term elections. Our experts share what they think the critical issues surrounding polling will be.

Plus, bet on it! The U.S. Supreme Court opened the doors for states to permit betting on the outcome of sports events. Do Americans think that’s a good idea? Poll Hub has the numbers.

About Poll Hub

Poll Hub goes behind the science to explain how polling works, what polls really show, and what the numbers really mean. Poll Hub is produced by The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, home of America’s leading independent college public opinion poll, The Marist Poll. Lee Miringoff (Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion), Barbara Carvalho (Director of The Marist Poll), and Jay DeDapper (Director of Innovation at The Marist Poll) dig deep to give you a look at the inner workings of polls and what they tell us about our world, our country, and ourselves.

President Donald Trump recently cited a Reuters/Ipsos Poll to show his approval rating among African Americans is on the rise. But, even the organization behind the poll said, not so fast. In this episode, the Poll Hub team breaks down the controversy, analyzes the survey, and explains why the president’s argument was flawed.

Also on the docket – the increased use of robocalls. Why these annoying solicitations and scams have a profound effect on the polling industry and where the field of survey research goes from here, on this week’s episode.

Plus, the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) has released a guide for journalists to understand polls. The Poll Hub crew addresses why this is critical, especially in an election year.