RaboResearch Agri Commodities

On the latest RaboResearch Agri Commodities podcast, Carlos Mera and Michael Magdovitz discuss the October WASDE report. Poor 2022/23 US grain and oilseed harvests are forcing the USDA to become increasingly adept with scissors. As it cuts production, the USDA must increasingly (and tragically) cut demand to prevent ending stockpiles from disappearing. Relative to expectations, the report was bearish on corn and bullish on soy, and it resulted in funds partially unwinding their corn/soy spread. The prime takeaway is that supply inflation is being increasingly controlled by weak, recession-linked demand.

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In the latest RaboResearch Agri Commodities episode, Global Grains & Oilseeds Strategist Steve Nicholson joins ACMR Senior Analyst Michael Magdovitz to discuss the September WASDE. ACMR's August WASDE Report predicted the USDA "may rue their bold move" to raise US soybean yields. Indeed, this week the USDA did a dramatic 180, cutting US soy (and corn) yields and reducing demand to avoid outright scarcity. A supply-side crisis will give corn and soybean bulls a strong foothold to climb higher – with Brazil as the primary near-term defense against desperate scarcity.

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On the latest ACMR podcast, Senior Analyst Michael Magdovitz and Analyst Paul Joules discuss the recent price movements in CBOT Corn, Wheat, and Soybean futures. Tune in to hear about the 2022/23 harvests, the latest WASDE report, funds bouncing back, and overarching demand-side concerns. From a supply standpoint, heavy heat across the US and Europe poses a significant risk to feed grain and oilseed production. For wheat, recent production improvements among exporters are slightly bearish; the USDA's estimate of an 88m mt Russian crop (+6.5m mt MOM) in particular implies a low-cost producer can deliver near-term relief to the market, though questions remain about the longevity of this surplus. Please read our disclaimer here: https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417272/disclaimer

Head of Agri Commodities Markets Research Carlos Mera and Senior Analyst Michael Magdovitz discuss the recent pullback in CBOT Corn, Wheat, and Soybean prices. Tune in to hear about recent bearish dynamics: speculative capitulation, the worsening macroeconomic backdrop, shrinking demand, and the potential for a sea route for Ukrainian supplies.

From a supply standpoint, however, fundamentals are strong. Reserves for next year are set to remain well below historical averages, and heat is a major concern for developing northern hemisphere crops. Furthermore, long-repressed consumer demand is showing signs of renewed appetite on the price break.

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Join Rabobank's Grains & Oilseeds Analyst in China, Lief Chiang, and ACMR's Michael Magdovitz as they discuss the factors behind the high-price environment in G&O and what it means for China's feed demand.

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Russia has been amassing troops around the Ukrainian border and making demands NATO cannot afford to meet. A potential invasion with far-reaching consequences for key agricultural commodities like wheat, barley, corn, and sunflower oil cannot be ruled out. A retaliatory blanket embargo could result in even higher agri commodity prices. Given the inelasticity of demand, wheat prices in particular could double, as Turkey, the Middle East, and northern Africa struggle to source wheat from elsewhere. Please read more about the Ukraine Metacrisis and visit our F&A research website for more information.

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Soft commodities have seen a price surge in 2021, with coffee topping the price change charts. Join ACMR's Carlos Mera and Michael Magdovitz as they discuss the risks for coffee and sugar in 2022. Looking ahead, the development of La Niña in Brazil will be key for these commodities, while the container situation will be especially relevant for coffee.

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Join ACMR's Carlos Mera and Michael Magdovitz as they discuss the high price environment in G&O and the risks ahead for 2022. Wheat, feed grains and vegetable oils all hit multi-year highs in 2022 due to supply issues and strong demand. Looking ahead, the development of La Niña, high input costs and post-Covid demand threaten to keep supplies on the ropes and prices well supported.

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Join Rabobank's ACMR team on this very spooky podcast as Carlos Mera and Michael Magdovitz share frightening tales about global food inflation that will send a shiver down your spine and might send you running for the candy aisles.

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Last Friday, the USDA published a nominally bearish September WASDE report, with higher objective yields and acreage lifting US corn, soy, and cotton production and ending stocks. Yet, CBOT counterintuitively rallied in response as it became clear that increased G&O availability would be gobbled up by sidelined consumers.

Join Rabobank's Michael Magdovitz and Andrew Rawlings as they deconstruct the latest WASDE report.

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