The 2020 bull run in agri commodities defied all expectations and proved immune to Covid-19's economic and social consequences. This is particularly true for grains and oilseeds. The engines driving this rally are expected to continue into 2021: weather, speculators, and good import demand. However, when it comes to softs, we see prices still suffering from good production and precarious demand.

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The prospect of children coughing at your door may be scary enough at the moment, but there is also a lot of fear in agri commodity markets. In this special edition podcast, we explore some of the worst-case scenarios that could lead to higher prices for wheat, cocoa, and sugar markets. This Halloween may not see many treats, but there could be plenty of tricks.

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Vegetable prices surged near YTD highs last month, buoyed by strong demand and lower production. Join Rabobank's Oscar Tjakra and Michael Magdovitz as they analyze MDE Palm Oil and CBOT Soy Oil supply & demand fundamentals and the price risks ahead. Can the Q3 2020 momentum be sustained? Will slowing demand and stronger supply prospects cool the rally? Michael and Oscar discuss these points and their price outlooks on the podcast.

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Carlos Mera joins Charlie Clack to address the growing presence of speculative activity in soft commodity markets – including sugar – and the reasons why. The duo look at how this – along with the fundamental outlook – is set to drive the sugar price.

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Charlie Clack joins Oscar Tjakra to talk opportunities in global cotton over the next decade, following our latest RaboResearch report. On the agenda this episode is the post-pandemic demand recovery, world consumption growth to 2029/30, and opportunities for cotton producers and exporters around the globe.

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In this G&O market update we cover the main drivers leading price moves across Corn, Soybean and Wheat markets. The weather has begun to show a greater influence on G&O markets in recent weeks as corn and spring wheat crops move through key development stages. At the time of writing, CBOT Corn prices have eased after an initial rally following lower than expected US stocks and planted acreage and misplaced expectations of threatening weather in the Midwest. Meanwhile, CBOT Wheat prices have rallied as Russian winter wheat yields come in lower-than-expected and hot weather in the forecast is putting spring wheat crops at risk. CBOT Soybeans has mostly followed corn in recent weeks but as soybeans begin their key development stages, weather and Chinese export demand will be key.

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While the supply side is not without concerns, demand has been dropping due to Covid-19. For now, harvests are going ahead more or less normally in top producer Brazil and also in Colombia. We expect global demand to drop by 0.8% YOY, the first drop in global coffee demand since 1995. The precariousness of demand in certain coffee markets continues to be the focus of attention, particularly in markets where people are used to drinking tea at home and in markets with increasing unemployment but low benefits.

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Brent Crude recovered over 30% so far in May, pushing vegetable oil prices higher. Soy and corn remained subdued in the midst of an abundance of US stocks, good weather, and rapidly progressing US plantings. In particular for soybeans, the pace of Brazilian shipments continues to surprise, with the volumes of US soybeans bought by China a little lackluster in the middle of the worsening rhetoric. The rather positive USDA expectations for US 2020/21 soybean exports will require a strong commitment from China, but reading the Twitter feed offers no assurances about this. Good European and Black Sea weather in the forecast is stabilizing the prospects for wheat production, but there is still a long way to go before the situation improves.

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April witnessed unprecedented weakness in the energy sector and in emerging market currencies. Agri commodities markets were infected by these factors and continued their downward trend. Meanwhile, the threat of supply chains disruptions largely eased, as agricultural activities avoided major port and border closures, and the price risks shifted to demand destruction. Looking ahead, the spring plantings in the US are proceeding well but have the potential to bring volatility.

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Join the ACMR team as they discuss the wild ag commodity price swings amid market concerns for demand destruction and supply chain stability. For energy-related products like sugar, soy oil, palm oil, and corn, the energy price declines – resulting from Covid-19 and the internecine OPEC price war – are expected to cause substantial demand destruction for biodiesel and ethanol. For vital food and feed products like wheat, coffee, and soymeal, stockpiling and supply chain concerns are driving unusual strong backwardation.

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