RaboResearch Agri Commodities

The vegetable oil complex has enjoyed strong price increases in 2019. In this ACMR podcast episode, grain & oilseed analysts Oscar Tjakra and Michael Magdovitz review vegetable oil market fundamentals and price catalysts for CBOT Soy Oil, MDE Palm Oil, and Matif Rapeseed. Listen in as Oscar and Michael share Rabobank's price outlook for vegetable oils in 2020.

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Rabobank's Global G&O Strategist, Stefan Vogel, joins Australian-based Senior G&O Analyst Cheryl Kalisch Gordon to talk grains. They discuss where we expect upside in a market burdened by supply and trade war troubles, what might undermine that upside, and what this means in the context of Australia's 2019/20, again, drought-affected grain harvest.

This episode also appeared on our sister podcast RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness Australia/New Zealand

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In this joint Rabobank ACMR & FAR Australia podcast, South-East Asia Sugar expert Charles Clack joins ACMR senior analyst Carlos Mera to discuss the outlook for sugar prices. While the current glut in the market is manifested in heavy deliveries of both raws and whites, the market is turning towards a global deficit in 2019/20. The drop in estimates for the 2019/20 crops in Thailand, India and the EU stands in sharp contrast to the record net short position held on London #5 (whites) futures contracts, which will likely lead to higher volatility ahead.

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Two months after publishing a planting intentions report that was viewed as overstating US Corn acreage, the USDA completed a second survey that confirmed its initial findings, increased yields, and left the market shocked and deflated. Join Rabobank's Agri Commodities Markets Research Team as they discuss the latest WASDE report results, and their wider significance across grain & oilseeds markets for the year ahead.

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In this joint Rabobank ACMR & FAR Asia podcast, G&O expert Lief Chiang joins ACMR analyst Michael Magdovitz to discuss his outlook for China's soymeal and feed usage through 2020. In 2019, African Swine Fever-related culling of up to 50% of China's hog herd, with further downside possible, will reduce soybean imports and meal usage year-on-year. Reductions will be muted and short-lived, however, relative to hog and feed usage losses, thanks to a combination of higher feed inclusion rates of low-cost (relative to alternative meals) soymeal, increased demand from poultry and aquaculture, and others. By 2020, Lief expects soybean imports to resume a modest growth, even without a US-China trade deal, although import volumes will remain below their historic highs. The podcast concludes with a supply-side review of corn and soybeans, with Michael providing a review of Rabobank's 2019/20 US production estimates and a view on whether the crop could see supply-side reductions sufficient to offset the demand weakness from China and in turn support CBOT prices.

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A month of persistent rain across the Midwest kept corn farmers out of the fields and forced the USDA to do an about-face on their heavy 2019/20 balance sheet projections, cutting carry-out by 810m bu, the largest monthly decline in 30 years. With wet weather in the forecast, additional production downgrades are possible – for corn and soybeans. In this week's ACMR podcast episode, G&O analyst Michael Magdovitz talks to ACMR head and G&O global strategist Stefan Vogel about the June WASDE changes, along with the risks ahead for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Join Michael and Stefan as they evaluate the potential weather premium relative to global grain & oilseed availability, and hear their price risk bias going forward.

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Join Stefan Vogel, head of ACMR and global G&O strategist, as he comments on the excessive rainfall across the US, which caused an impressive price rally of over 20% in CBOT Corn and Wheat. While rains delays US corn plantings and will likely result in an unprecedented record number of unplanted acres, US wheat quality is at risk.

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On 1 January 2020, the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) will implement a 0.5% global sulphur cap for marine fuels. With less than a year to go, there are still uncertainties about the global availability of low sulphur marine fuels needed to fulfil this regulation. This regulation is implemented for the marine industry but also impacts the grains and oilseed industry. Oscar Tjakra joins Charlie Clack to chat about the impact of the regulation on the grains and oilseeds value chain and what industry participants can do about it.

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Brazil has rapidly risen to become one of the world's largest cotton production and export regions. Victor Ikeda joins Charlie Clack from São Paulo to chat about the rise of the cotton industry there... and what this could mean for Australia going forward.

This episode appeared earlier on our Australia/New Zealand sister channel

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From early November until last week, CBOT markets enjoyed a US-China trade war hiatus as China initiated goodwill purchases of US agricultural goods, the US withheld tariff hikes, and both sides sought a negotiated settlement. ACMR analyst Michael Magdovitz and G&O analyst Lief Chiang discuss how that calm was shattered by Sunday's statement from President Trump to raise tariffs on Chinese goods. Join Michael and Lief to hear about the near-term impacts and price risks from this latest trade war escalation.

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