RaboResearch Agri Commodities

ACMR Head and G&O Sector Strategist Stefan Vogel joins ACMR Analyst Michael Magdovitz to discuss the recent price breaks in wheat, corn, and soybeans, along with some thoughts ahead of the USDA's first 2019/20 WASDE in early May. Stefan and Michael discuss bearish G&O catalysts, including fierce export competition, the African swine fever epidemic, generally positive global crop conditions, and a record non-commercial net short.

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Arabica coffee prices are at 13-year lows. At only USc 90/lb, arabica prices are now below cost of production in virtually all arabica-producing countries aside from Brazil – and over 10m coffee farmers will be working themselves into poverty. Senior Commodity Analyst Carlos Mera talks about his supply/demand expectations, the fundamental risks surrounding the coffee market, and what can be done to alleviate the situation.

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In the latest episode of the ACMR podcast, China G&O expert Lief Chiang joins ACMR Analyst Michael Magdovitz to discuss China's potential F&A shopping list under a trade deal. Amid reports that China has offered to more than double its pre-trade-war purchases to 55bn USD, Lief runs through the products besides soybeans that would strategically benefit China, including corn ethanol to achieve the E10 mandate, pork, beef, seafood, and spring wheat. He also discusses the time span for reaching those purchase levels. The podcast concludes with Michael's view on whether the US could supply an additional 30bn USD in F&A goods and the potential impact of such an increase for US farmers.

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Join Stefan Vogel (ACMR Head and G&O Global Strategist) and Michael Magdovitz (ACMR Analyst) as they discuss the latest WASDE, US stocks, and winter plantings reports.

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Geopolitics and weather risk upside are driving G&O prices higher, after a relatively steady month in January. Michael Magdovitz and Charlie Clack discuss navigating these markets amid the US government shutdown and unpredictable Brazilian weather. The major question is whether Chinese guarantees can facilitate a deal before March 1st trade tariff deadline—Rabobank sees short-term upside, but for how long?

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So far, January has reflected the higher risk appetite, with Brent surging and the Brazilian real gaining versus the US dollar. Charlie Clack and Carlos Mera chat about the latest ICE Coffee, Sugar, and Cotton markets, outlining Rabobank's fundamental and price outlooks for the season ahead.

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During the G20 meeting in Argentina, US President Donald Trump agreed to freeze tariff increases on China for a period of 90 days to allow trade negotiators to proceed in good faith. During that hiatus, Premier Xi agreed to resume importing substantial quantities of US food & agriculture products into China that were largely frozen by both tariff & non-tariff measures. Rabobank's F&A China industry analyst Lief Chiang joins ACMR G&O analyst Michael Magdovitz to discuss the potential demand pickup from China, strategic aspects of the deal and the near-to-medium impact on soybean prices.

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Carlos Mera and Charles Clack discuss what's in store for soft commodity markets—including sugar, coffee and cotton—in the year ahead, as highlighted in their latest report, Outlook 2019: Trade War Turbulence, With Softs Landing. Global production prospects, along with currency and geopolitical shifts provide the backdrop to Rabobank's 2019 price outlook.

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Michael Magdovitz and Charles Clack talk over the big price drivers for major grain & oilseed markets in 2019, as highlighted in their latest report, Outlook 2019: Trade War Turbulence, With Softs Landing. Trade wars, acreage shifts and major weather risks and just a few of the topics which come into the spotlight.

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Weakened emerging market currencies and strong US summer crop yields held agri commodity prices in check, despite declining balance sheets and ongoing trade discussions. Michael Magdovitz and Charles Clack talk the latest price & fundamental outlooks for wheat, corn, soybeans, sugar and coffee.

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