Rational Security

On Tuesday, November 5, former President Trump won the 2024 presidential election, becoming the second president to win a non-consecutive second term. Our team has been hard at work analyzing the fallout, but doing so has left us a little tight on time to record our usual weekly episode. So in lieu of Rational Security this week, we're bringing you a conversation in which Lawfare Editor-in-Chief Benjamin Wittes sat down with Lawfare Senior Editors Alan Rozenshtein, Scott R. Anderson, Anna Bower, and Quinta Jurecic to discuss what happens now. They talk about what a second Trump administration may bring and what to keep an eye out for during the transition in a live recording on Lawfare’s YouTube channel.

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This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Alan Rozenshtein, Benjamin Wittes, and Molly Reynolds to talk through the week’s big national security news, including:

• “An Eye for an Iran.” After weeks of waiting, Israel finally launched the strikes on Iran it had long promised in response to the volley of missiles Iran hit it with earlier this month. Compared to expectations, the strikes were relatively limited and aimed primarily at Iranian military targets, instead of its nuclear and oil infrastructure. And the United States is now urging an end to these “tit-for-tat” strikes. But is this likely to be the case? Or are Israel’s actions just the beginning of a bigger conflict?
• “He Just Slid into my DMs!” This week, the Wall Street Journal published a stunning report indicating that billionaire industrialist Elon Musk has been having previously undisclosed communications with Russian President Vladimir Putin and other senior Russian officials. How concerning should these conversations be? And what ramifications might they have for U.S. national security?
• “Post Mortem.” Washington Post owner Jeff Bezos’s late decision to squash an official editorial board endorsement of Kamala Harris—and to abstain from presidential endorsements moving forward—has triggered a tidal wave of opposition, leading to hundreds of thousands of canceled subscriptions from a newspaper that was already set to lose substantial sums of money this year. How wrong-headed was Bezos’s move? And what should the proper response be?

For object lessons, Alan hyped the sci-fi classic "Hyperion Cantos," by Dan Simmons. Molly celebrated a profile of a former student of hers by the inestimable W. Kama Bell, which is part of a new Washington Post series on civil servants. Scott urged listeners to get out and participate in democracy this pre-Election Day weekend. And Ben logrolled for Lawfare’s newest podcast endeavor: Escalation, an audio documentary series on the origins of the conflict in Ukraine.

To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/c/trumptrials.

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This week, Scott was joined by his Lawfare colleagues Tyler McBrien and Anna Hickey and special guest Georgetown University professor and CSIS Senior Fellow (as well as Lawfare Foreign Policy Editor) Dan Byman to talk over the week’s big national security news, including:

• “Some Vacancies in Management.” Israeli forces unintentionally hit their number one target last week when an Israeli military patrol in Gaza stumbled across and killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who is widely believed to be the main architect behind the October 7 massacre. It’s the latest in a series of military operations that have left the leadership ranks of both Hamas and Hezbollah decimated. But what are these changes at the top likely to mean for these organizations? Is this an opportunity for peace? Or an opening to greater escalation?
• “Forgotten, or Not Forgotten Enough.” Sudan has spent the past several months spiraling toward a political and humanitarian crisis of historical proportions, driven in substantial part by the agendas of outside powers. But the situation has received relatively little attention from the global media or broader international community. What do we need to know about the Sudan crisis? And how does (or should) U.S. policy enter into the equation?
• “Person-ey Non Grat-ey.” Relations between Canada and India have hit a new low, as Canadian officials have accused Indian officials of leading a campaign to intimidate and interfere with Sikh nationals resident in Canada, as part of a broader international campaign. While Canada has gone so far as to expel involved Indian diplomats, its traditional allies—including the United States—have remained far less confrontational with India, despite concerns over similar types of behavior. What explains this difference in approach? And what tack should the United States take moving forward?

For object lessons, Tyler celebrated the NY Liberty’s victory and urged basketball fans to get on the WNBA bandwagon. Scott urged D.C. residents to visit the beautiful Kenilworth Aquatic Gardens for a real taste of the swamp. Dan tripled down on the podcast’s endorsement of the spy thriller Slow Horses. And Anna recommended folks check out Bolts Magazine’s annual election cheat sheet as they prepare for the big event in just two weeks.

To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/c/trumptrials.

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This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes, Anastasiia Lapatina, and Eugenia Lostri to try to make sense of the week’s biggest national security news stories, including:

• “Kursked.” This week, even as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky rolls out his “Victory Plan” to Western allies, Russian forces have made progress reclaiming what some have described as a key part of that plan: the region of Kursk within Russia, which Ukrainian forces seized earlier this year. How central is Kursk to Zelensky’s vision for how to end the conflict? And how will Russia’s apparent progress impact his plans?
• “The Waiting Game.” The world remains on the edge of its seat, waiting to see how Israel will pursue its promised response against Iran for the volley of missiles the latter launched against it earlier this month. What sort of response does Israel seem to have in store? And what role will the United States be playing?
• “Tap Tap Tapping.” A coalition of China-associated hackers called “Salt Typhoon” is believed to have hacked the system used by telecommunications companies to comply with U.S. legal warrants. How big a deal is this? And what might its implications be for the United States surveillance system writ large?

For object lessons, Ben shared his electronic composition “Trump Portrait” (with apologies to both Aaron Copeland and Abraham Lincoln). Nastya recommended “The Road to Unfreedom,” by Timothy Snyder, as an essential portrait of the road to Russia’s brutality. Scott sang the praises of the Slate podcast “One Year,” especially for those seeking informative and (mostly) family-friendly podcast fare. And Eugenia endorsed the series “Nobody Wants This,” the most grounded and realistic rabbi-meets-sex podcaster romcom you’ve ever seen.

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This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Molly Reynolds, Kevin Frazier, and Katherine Pompilio to talk over the week's big national security news stories, including:

• “The Fourth Law of Robotics is, You Don’t Talk About the First Three Laws of Robotics.” California Governor Gavin Newsom vetoed SB 1047 this past week, a measure that would have imposed the first set of meaningful safety regulations on the development of Artificial Intelligence (AI)—measures industry leaders said were onerous and unnecessary. While Newsom vetoed this legislation, he endorsed the broader idea of safety action on AI, including at the state level. What does Newsom’s move tell us about the state of the AI industry and efforts to regulate it?
• “Battening Down the Hatchetmen.” As countless Americans have struggled through the aftermath of Hurricane Helene—and are preparing for Hurricane Milton, due to make landfall Wednesday—Congress has been in recess. And Speaker of the House Mike Johnson has expressed his opposition to any effort to call them back early to provide, among other things, supplemental emergency funding. What is the logic behind Johnson’s opposition? And what does it tell us about the state of Congress as we head into a potentially historic election?
• “Premature Articulation.” Last week, Special Counsel Jack Smith filed a massive brief laying out how his prosecution of former President Donald Trump can proceed within the (very messy) framework laid out by the Supreme Court in its immunity decision earlier this year. But the timing of this filing (and its unsealing) has some claiming that Smith is acting out of political animus. What’s the significance of this filing? And should Smith have waited until after the election? 

For object lessons, Molly asked whether the Mets rally pumpkin would go the way of Liz Truss's head of lettuce. Kevin urged listeners to help out needy Floridians suffering through the hurricanes through Feeding Florida. Scott sang the epic tale of his own hurricane refugee mother, and her long and unexpected drive up the east coast. And Katherine recommended the album "Big Ideas" by the life-changing artist Remi Wolf, and offers a warning against being influenced by the influencers.

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This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes, Quinta Jurecic, and Tyler McBrien to try to make sense of the week’s biggest national security news stories, including:

• “Pulling Up the Escalation Ladder.” Israel’s escalating campaign against Hezbollah turned regional yesterday, as Iran launched a salvo of more than 180 ballistic missiles against Israel. While the damage was limited, both Israel and the United States have promised consequences. What strategies are Israel, Iran, and the United States pursuing in all this? And where will it lead?
• “At Least He Didn’t Get Aslan Killed.” New York City Mayor Eric Adams’s passion for Turkish delights has led to his indictment on multiple charges relating to alleged corruption, specifically at the behest of individuals associated with the Turkish and potentially other foreign governments. Adams, in turn, claims he is being targeted for, among other reasons, speaking out about immigration concerns. What is the real driver behind Adams’s indictment? 
• “Devil Came Down to Georgia.” Hurricane Helene wreaked havoc on the American southeast this past week—not just in coastal areas accustomed to hurricane season damage, but also deep inland as it cut through and past the Gulf of Mexico. In parts of southern Appalachia, the storm caused immense flooding that has wiped out whole towns and resulted in dozens of deaths. The aftermath is raising countless policy concerns, from ways to heighten resilience to concerns over the impact on the forthcoming general election. How should hurricanes and other extreme weather events—widely understood to be, in part, products of climate change—figure into our national security?

To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/c/trumptrials.

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This week, Scott was joined by Natalie Orpett, Anna Bower, and Matt Gluck to talk over some of the week's big national security news, including:

• “Some Assembly Required.” On Tuesday, President Biden gave his fourth and final speech as president to the U.N. General Assembly. He used the occasion to reflect on the many foreign policy decisions of his presidency, including the withdrawal from Afghanistan, opposition to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the (thus far unsuccessful) pursuit of a ceasefire in the conflict in Gaza. What does this speech—and the year’s U.N. General Assembly more broadly—tell us about the state of his foreign policy legacy?
• “Keeping it Peachy.” Georgia’s state election board is in the news for rules changes that some allege could delay finalization of the 2024 election results, opening a possible door for Congress to manipulate the results. But what will these rules changes really mean? And what does it tell us about the potential for (and limits on) efforts to manipulate the outcome of the 2024 presidential election?
• “Memo-ries of the Way We Were.” Last week, the New York Times published excerpts from several memoranda prepared by then-President Trump’s White House Counsel addressing questions he appears to have posed regarding his ability to direct the Justice Department to investigate and prosecute individuals. Given Trump’s repeated pledges of vengeance if he were to return to the White House, what do these memoranda tell us about what he might be able to accomplish? And what obstacles may lie in his way, particularly in light of the Supreme Court’s intervening decision on presidential immunity?

For object lessons, Natalie recommended Helen Phillips' new novel “Hum.” Anna stole Scott's object lesson and recommended season two of Rings of Power along with season three of Industry. Scott sang the praises of the best tiny speaker he ever did see (er, hear). And Matt Gluck dug into the sportsball file to urge listeners to begin following the Detroit Tigers' historic playoffs run.

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This week, Scott sat down with Lawfare team members Alan Rozenshtein, Tyler McBrien, and RatSec newbie Anastasiia "Nastya" Lapatina to talk through the week's national security headlines, including:

• “A Shot Across the Rubicon.” Reports indicate that President Biden and his U.K. allies may be on the verge of giving Ukraine approval to use their advanced weapons systems to strike deep into Russia, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threat that doing so would be seen as an act of war. How risky a move is this? 
• “TikTok on the DokKit.” Challengers of the federal law that would ban TikTok had their (first) day in court on Tuesday in oral arguments before the D.C. Circuit. How were their criticisms received by the three-judge panel? And what will the implications of their ruling be for the law, and for TikTok more generally?
• “Dialing M.” Thousands of Lebanese—many of them members of the terrorist group and political movement Hezbollah—were killed or injured this week, when their pagers detonated in what many suspect was a complex terrorism operation by Israel. While some are proclaiming this to be the most accurate counter-terrorism operation in history, others are saying it was indiscriminate in its disregard for possible civilian loss of life. What should we make of this operation? And what impact will it have on the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict?

For object lessons, Alan endorsed the new Vince Vaughn series Bad Monkey for finally giving the nice guy a shot. Tyler recommended the album "Manning Fireworks" by MJ Lenderman (as recently profiled in The New Yorker). Scott doubled-down on a prior Alan recommendation by encouraging folks to check out sci-fi author Ray Nayler's latest book, "The Tusks of Extinction," and the exceptional collection of short stories he's published online. And Nastya urged listeners to check out Serhii Plohky's new book, "The Russo-Ukrainian War: The Return of History."

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In the debut episode of RatSec 2.1, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Kevin Frazier, Eugenia Lostri, and Benjamin Wittes to talk over the week’s big national security news, including:

• “I Have Concepts of a Segment Topic.” On Tuesday, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump faced off in what might end up being the only presidential debate between the two candidates in the 2024 election. What did it tell us about how national security is figuring into this election? 
• “Running Political Interference Interference.” The Justice Department has been very busy these past few weeks, bringing an array of indictments and enforcement actions against various Russian actors and their proxies for spreading misinformation, surreptitiously funding political commentary, and otherwise attempting to interfere in the upcoming 2024 elections. What explains this sudden wave of activity so close to the election? And what threats are still hanging out there?
• “Never Forgot.” Twenty-three years have passed since the unprecedented terrorist attacks of 9/11. In many ways, they redefined the trajectory of U.S. national security policy (and politics) for decades. But today, the United States has shifted focus to a very different set of challenges. What is the legacy of 9/11 more than two decades after the attacks? 

For object lessons, Kevin readied our listeners for depression before recommending Neil Postman’s new book, “Amusing Ourselves to Death.” Ben endorsed the documentary Man on Wire as his favorite movie about 9/11, in part because it has nothing to do with 9/11. Scott urged D.C.-area residents not to sleep on the sublime joys of an outdoor show at Wolf Trap while the weather is still nice. And Eugenia shed her video game label to throw her support behind James Cameron’s latest maritime adventure, the (weirdly mutant-free) sea exploration documentary series OceanXplorers.

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This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott celebrated the third anniversary of Rational Security 2.0 with their Lawfare colleagues Molly Reynolds, Natalie Orpett, and Tyler McBrien, who sat in brutal judgment as the three co-hosts pitched them their hottest takes yet, including:

• Are concerns about judicial ethics overblown?
• Do ethics require that we open the borders and make whoever wants to become one a citizen?
• Should we just treat AI systems like the wild animals they are?

Which takes are undercooked, which too hot, and which are just right? Listen in and decide!

Meanwhile, for object lessons, Scott shared some news about the future of Rational Security moving forward. Listen to the end of the episode to find out what!

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