Rational Security

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Senior Editor Michael Feinberg and Foreign Policy Editor Dana Stuster for a little chat with the guys about the week’s big national security news stories, including:

• “Minding Your Bs and Ts.” President Trump arrived in China this week alongside top U.S. officials and business executives for a much-anticipated summit with President Xi Jinping. U.S. diplomats hope the summit will revolve around the “five Bs”—meaning U.S. beef, soybeans, Boeing airplanes, and proposed boards for investment and trade—while Chinese officials want to talk about the “three Ts” of Taiwan, technology, and tariffs. What should our expectations be for the summit? And how much will the Iran war loom over the negotiations?
• “Crude Awakening.” This past week, negotiations between Iran and the United States appeared to reach a standstill, without any movement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz or restoring the flow of oil and other goods that have driven crude oil prices to record highs. As each side seems poised to wait out the other, how long can they last before having to capitulate (or escalate)? And what do these dynamics mean for this war of attrition? 
• “Cartel Blanche.” On Tuesday, CNN reported that the CIA has been conducting a covert campaign of assassinations in Mexico targeting mid-level members of the country’s drug cartels. Despite these reports—and the Trump administration’s longstanding claims that it is at “war” with the cartels—both the Mexican government and CIA have denied any involvement in these operations. What does this say about the Trump administration’s plans for future counter-narcotics operations? And the broader U.S.-Mexico relationship?

In object lessons, Dana stresses that the key to a successful marriage—at least in his case—is a good microphone. Mike stresses that misery loves company, and despite the possible threat to his own marital bliss, contemplates a date night to AFI Silver’s Bleak Week. And Scott stresses that Lawfare does not exist without the support of listeners like you. Please consider contributing to our spring fundraising drive with a personally meaningful gift at lawfaremedia.org/support.

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This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Molly Roberts, Roger Parloff, and Tyler McBrien to talk through the week’s big national security news stories, including:

• “Jim Spells Seashells By the Seashore.” Former FBI Director James Comey was indicted again this past week, this time for allegedly threatening the life of the president by spelling “8647” in shells at the beach and posting an image on social media. It is a ludicrous argument. So what does it tell us that Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche was willing to file it? And where does Trump’s broader vengeance campaign seem likely to go from here, under whoever becomes the next Attorney General?
• “We Were on a Break!” The Iran War turned 60 days old last week—the deadline by which, under the War Powers Resolution, the president is supposed to wrap up any congressionally unauthorized military operations. But like many of its predecessors, the Trump administration has done no such thing. Instead, it’s argued that the 60-day cut-off was already met by the ongoing ceasefire—even though the Trump administration has continued its embargo of Iranian oil resources and began a new major maritime campaign to open the Strait of Hormuz, triggering exchanges of fire with Iranian forces. What should we make of these arguments? And do they suggest the War Powers Resolution is a dead letter?
• “Strictly Ballroom.” The Trump administration is actively working to capitalize on the recent assassination attempt on Trump to push a federal court to allow its construction of an East Wing ballroom on national security grounds. At the same time, it’s faced new judicial headwinds in its quixotic effort to take over a municipal golf course—the same location where it dumped the (potentially toxic) rubble of the demolished old East Wing. What do these cases tell us about Trump’s efforts to reshape our nation’s capital? And how legitimate are the new efforts to tie these cases to national security?

In object lessons, Roger is revisiting Azar Nafisi’s “Reading Lolita in Tehran,” a tough, yet beautiful read with unfortunate persistent relevance. Molly is memorializing the current metro landscape with her desk globe of Washington, D.C. Scott is sharing his remembrance of Stewart Baker, forever a friend of Lawfare. And Tyler is taking us back to 1971 Boston and Catholic resistance to the Vietnam War with the Divine Intervention podcast.

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This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Executive Editor Natalie Orpett and Contributing Editors Ariane Tabatabai and Joel Braunold, to talk through the week’s big national security news stories, including:

• “The Art of the Heel.” As it approaches the 60-day mark, the war of Iran appears to have entered the “war of attrition” stage. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed by both Iran and the United States, as each side waits to see if the other will capitulate first. President Trump recently called off peace talks in Islamabad, in part because of purported internal disarray on the part of Iran—a perhaps unsurprising consequence of a two-month campaign of regime change. Meanwhile, the White House appears to have successfully pushed for and and then extended a ceasefire in the related theater of Lebanon, but it is already under strain from ongoing Israeli strikes and Hezbollah’s ensuing refusal to disarm. What should we make of this new equilibrium? And does it suggest that there is any way out of the current morass in the near future?
• “Royally Falked.” King Charles is in the United States this week for the first state visit by a British monarch since Queen Elizabeth in 2007. But the Trump administration’s latest round of antics toward the United Kingdom and other NATO allies may overshadow the trip. Over the weekend, Reuters reported that an internal Pentagon email suggested that the administration should explore withdrawing U.S. recognition of British control over the Falkland Islands and suspending Spain from NATO due to their refusal to join U.S.-Israeli combat operations against Iran. Other consequences may yet be in the offing. How seriously should we take these threats from the Pentagon? And how close are we to a permanent rupture in the United States’s preeminent alliance?
• “Ballroom Blitz.” On Saturday night, President Trump was the target of a third assassination attempt since the 2024 campaign. This time, a California teacher plotted to target Trump and his senior advisers at the annual White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner. In response, the administration quickly blamed Democrats for the heated, sometimes violent rhetoric they use in criticizing Trump and focused its attention on pressuring a federal court to end a civil case challenging the construction of the new White House ballroom, citing security concerns. What were some of our thoughts about this past weekend’s events?

In object lessons, Ari is taking control of the narrative with Split Fiction for the Switch 2. Natalie is taking herself out for a treat to Boulangerie Saint Georges near Eastern Market. Scott is taking a break from his own podcast to appreciate Iran: The Latest from The Telegraph. And Joel is taking a lesson from the NFL draft that may delight both sportsball and non-sportsball fans alike.

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This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Eric Columbus, Molly Roberts, and Loren Voss to talk through a few of the week’s big news stories, including:

•“Meet Joe Flack.” The Justice Department’s ongoing investigation into the alleged “grand conspiracy” against President Trump in relation to the 2016 elections and their aftermath has entered a new phase this week with the appointment of Joseph diGenova, a former Reagan-era U.S. Attorney and political commentator, as counselor to the Attorney General in charge of the investigation. Meanwhile, reports indicate that the Justice Department may be preparing to bring charges against former CIA Director John Brennan, a vocal Trump critic, whom diGenova has previously called a “traitor” in interviews with Fox News, even after the career attorney previously in charge of the investigation withdrew. What should we make of diGenova’s new role in this investigation? And how seriously should we take these attempts to prosecute Brennan and others allegedly involved in the “grand conspiracy”?

•“No Occupation Without Representation.” A district court officially closed out Trump v. Illinois this week, that case that ultimately led the Supreme Court to invalidate the grounds on which the Trump administration had federalized and deployed national guard troops to several states last year over the objections of their governors. But while those deployments have ended, other deployments remain ongoing – including the more than 2,500 soldiers that are still on the streets of Washington, D.C., whose deployments are expected to last as long as 2029. What are the limits on these other forms of domestic deployment? And what space does Trump v. Illinois leave for the Trump administration to renew more aggressive deployments if it sees fit?

•“Hungary for Change.” Last week, Hungary voted to end the sixteen year reign of Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his Fidesz Party, which have been frequently cited as models for President Trump and his MAGA movement. This was in spite of a last minute visit by U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance, which unsuccessfully sought to shore up support for Orban in the waning days of the campaign. How do we see Orban’s defeat playing out in the U.S. as the conservative movement begins to think about what comes next after the Trump presidency?

For object lessons, Eric recommended The Brick as a way to stop the noise of the internet from distracting you from your work (on your phone, at least). Molly showed off her matryoshka, or Russian nesting dolls, in celebration of the step back in Russian influence in Hungary. Scott celebrated in his own way, by recommending the new spy series Ponies, not so much for its authenticity, but for its incredibly stylish take on 1970s Moscow. And Loren recommended that D.C. locals stop by her favorite chai place, Afghan Chai in Dupont Circle.

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This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Daniel Byman, Tyler McBrien, and Natalie Orpett to talk through aspects of the week’s biggest Iran-focused news stories, including:

• “Situational Iran-y.” The world came into Tuesday evening fearing a major escalation in the ongoing U.S. and Israeli conflict with Iran. But instead, President Trump made a last-minute choice to accept a two-week ceasefire, conditional on the opening of the Strait of Hormuz—a condition that Iran indicated it was prepared to meet, kind of, so long as “open” means coordinating with its military forces (and paying) for safe transit. Is this the beginning of the end of the Iran conflict? And what does the shape of the ceasefire tell us about the conflict’s likely regional implications moving forward?
• “Verbal Iran-y.” Tuesday’s breakthrough ceasefire agreement came after days of increasingly outlandish rhetoric by President Trump, including a threat earlier that day that “a whole civilization will die tonight” if his conditions were not met. What role did Trump’s threats play in the outcome? And what might the broader ramifications might be of the U.S. president issuing threats that would amount to war crimes (if not genocide) if actually followed up on?
• “Dramatic Iran-y.” While Trump’s rhetoric was undoubtedly intended to communicate strength, it came from a place of increasing weakness. U.S. military operations in Iran were weeks away from a major statutory barrier, and efforts to secure needed supplemental funding are facing headwinds in Congress. Perhaps more importantly, the conflict has proven widely unpopular and devastating for the U.S. and broader global economy—two factors that weigh heavily on Trump and his congressional allies in an election year. What will this shift in the Iran conflict mean for Trump’s political future? Not to mention the legal and institutional arrangements that have allowed him to pursue so unorthodox a foreign policy in recent months?

In object lessons, Dan is not playing games when simulating the 1960 presidential election. Natalie is delighting in another kind of history with the masterful writing in Claire Messud’s “This Strange Eventful History.” Scott is revisiting a 2002 Donald Trump review of “Citizen Kane” that has a somewhat surprising ending. And Tyler is recommending that you watch as much Artemis II content as humanly possible.

Note: We’re taking a little break next week, but keep an eye out for our next episode on April 23!

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This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Senior Editors Anna Bower, Kevin Frazier, and Kate Klonick to talk through the week’s big news in national security, including:

• “The X Post Facto Rule.” The Justice Department and lawyers representing Anthropic faced off last week in a Northern California courtroom over whether Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s X post and som related communications amounted to an official order and if the Pentagon’s supply chain risk designation retaliated against the company’s First Amendment-protected views, among other issues. On March 26, Judge Rita Lin, in that case, stayed the supply chain risk designation, ruling that the Pentagon had, in fact, retaliated unlawfully against Anthropic. We’re also waiting for another related decision from a D.C. Circuit panel, expected to come down any time now. What should we make of Judge Lin’s ruling, and do we expect the D.C. Circuit to follow suit? And what does it all mean for AI companies and their relationship with the government?
• “Strait Outta Options.” Oil, gas, helium, pharmaceuticals, and fertilizer—the ongoing conflict with Iran has upended global supply chains, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed as critical infrastructure in neighboring Gulf states faces Iranian attacks. The U.S. has started to feel the first of its effects through rising costs and a trepidatious stock market, reminiscent of the supply chain shortages felt during the coronavirus pandemic. It's unclear how severe and how long they will last, but what could be some of the national security and political implications if the supply chain shocks continue? And what does it mean for the trajectory of the Iran conflict?
• “Space: The Financial Frontier.” NASA astronauts launched this week on the Artemis II mission, the first crewed mission to orbit the moon in more than half a century. It’s the biggest step to date in the new emerging space race, most specifically with China—one driven predominantly by private actors, the biggest of whom, SpaceX, is preparing to make an unprecedentedly large initial public offering in coming weeks. How should we feel about this new, very different space race compared to past ones? And what might it mean, both for good and ill? 

In object lessons, Kate looks forward to filling the pages of her new notebook and ponders if she has so much to say that she’ll need another one. Anna wants immunity from ridicule for her love of Survivor. Scott is impatiently waiting for his chance to binge all of the new season of For All Mankind. And Kevin applauds boring AI—that is, using new technology to ease enduring human challenges. 

To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.

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This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Molly Roberts, Tyler McBrien, and Renée DiResta to talk through the week’s big national security news stories, including:

• “The Meta-verse of Madness.” On Tuesday, a New Mexico jury reached a $375 million verdict against Meta after a seven-week trial that focused on whether the social media company knowingly harmed children’s mental health and facilitated child sexual exploitation through its algorithms. And just before recording, another verdict came down in a jury trial in California about whether Facebook and YouTube are too addictive in a way that harms an individual plaintiff in that case. Several other similar civil cases are set to go to trial in the coming months. What do we make of these verdicts, and do they signal a turning tide against social media companies for the algorithms that make them both profitable and (potentially) addictive?
• “SAVE-ing Face.” President Trump and Republican congressional leaders went back and forth this week over a deal that would put forward a bill to fund the Department of Homeland Security, or at least less controversial parts of it, despite Trump’s threats not to sign any pieces of legislation until Congress passes his SAVE America Act. Trump views the SAVE America Act as vindication for his criticisms of the 2020 Election, but Republicans in the Senate have hedged and resisted his calls to blow up the filibuster in order to pass it. Instead, they now appear to have a deal in place that will allow less controversial parts of the funding for DHS to go forward—and for the funding for the most controversial parts, particularly ICE and removal operations, to go forward through reconciliation on what is likely to be a party line vote, along with select chunks of that SAVE America Act. Why is Trump so determined to pass the SAVE America Act? And what does the compromise he now appears to have reached with Senate Republicans mean for its future?
• “Poly Wants a Crack-up.” Flight monitors, pizza place trackers, and Google Earth—the past few years have brought open source intelligence, better known as “OSINT,” into vogue. Accounts on X have racked up millions of followers by “monitoring the situation” for news events spanning from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to natural disasters. But this explosion of OSINT accounts has brought a wave of disinformation, and coincides with the growth of online prediction markets, such as Polymarket and Kalshi, whose bettors use OSINT to gain an advantage — and, at times, to manipulate the results. How has OSINT contributed to the online media landscape? And how has it hurt it?

In object lessons, Tyler engages in some classic log-rolling with a recommendation of the new podcast, “Who Blew Up the Guidestones?” Molly digs even deeper into her collection of curiosities to find her vintage “Nuke ‘Em ’Til They Glow” hat. Scott expertly sidesteps sports gambling issues by distracting us with delicious baked good from Seylou. And Renée survives a demanding travel schedule by drinking a brandy Old Fashioned and brushing up on her knowledge of K-pop.

To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.

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This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes, Natalie Orpett, and Ariane Tabatabai to talk through the week’s big news in national security, including:

• “Keeping It On the Strait and Narrow.” Three weeks into the U.S. and Israel’s air campaign against Iran, ship traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz remains at a virtual stop, sending crude oil prices north of $100 a barrel. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said last week that vessels are safe to sail through the strait, but continued attacks on tankers suggest otherwise. Some neighboring Gulf states, among others, are growing antsy that U.S. strikes won’t go far enough in preventing attacks by Iran. What do we make of these developments, and how will it impact how other countries are navigating the broader conflict?
• “‘Nein’ to Five.” U.S. efforts to secure European support for efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have fallen on deaf ears, with German officials describing it as “not our war” and far outside the obligations imposed by NATO’s Article 5 and other defense commitments. In response, President Trump said that he was “disappointed” in NATO and once again hinted that he might exit it. It’s the latest nadir in a precipitous decline in transatlantic relations over the past three months. How much worse can things get? And what could it mean for the future of the broader alliance?
• “(Un)Lawful Good?” A U.S. strike on what turned out to be an elementary school in southern Iran in the earliest days of the U.S. military campaign there has put a new focus on decisions by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to scale back rules and processes meant to reduce harm to civilians in armed conflict. Hegseth has called the rules of engagement “stupid” and has said he wants to give military commanders “maximum authority on the battlefield.” He’s also repeatedly called for “no quarter” in Iran and other contexts—an order that, if taken literally, would itself be a violation of the laws of armed conflict. Exactly how far has Hegseth unraveled the Pentagon’s rules of engagement? And what could the real world consequences be in Iran and elsewhere?

In object lessons, Natalie (or rather, her son) is cooking up a delicious recommendation for the culinarily curious kid in your life with Raddish Kids (hey there, Raddish Kids, Rational Security is looking for sponsors…). Ari is feasting on (and hoarding) the indigenous Taiwanese pepper, Maqaw. Scott is traveling in style and efficiency with his portable office kit, consisting of his fave iPad case and the Anker Power Bank (while we hate to sound like a broken record, uh, hey there, Anker, Rational Security is looking for sponsors…). And hey there, girlies, Ben is doing Ben things while getting ready for court. 

To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.

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This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Kate Klonick, Molly Roberts, and Troy Edwards to talk through the week’s big national security news stories, including:

• “MisAnthropic.” On Monday, Anthropic filed a civil complaint in the Northern District of California and a petition for hearing at the Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit over the Department of Defense’s designation of the frontier artificial intelligence company as a “supply chain risk.” The litigation capped off weeks of building tensions between Anthropic and Pentagon officials over the firm’s two ethical red lines for the Defense Department and its use of its AI model, Claude, specifically around widespread surveillance of Americans and the use of AI and autonomous weapons. What exactly are the Pentagon’s grounds for designating Anthropic as a supply chain risk, and how does Anthropic argue that doing so is inconsistent with the law? And what might the implications be for the AI industry as a whole?
• “The Mashhadian Candidate.” Fears that Iran would respond to the ongoing Israeli-U.S. military campaign through overseas terrorism have come to a head this week, as reports emerged that U.S. intelligence had detected an encrypted message being transmitted from Iran that may serve as “an operational trigger” for assets sitting outside of the country. What do we know about Iran’s involvement in past clandestine operations, including terrorism? And what does it mean that this is all happening at a moment when the Justice Department and FBI have lost so many of their experienced national security personnel?
• “Maricopa-calypse Now.” Federal investigators have ramped up several inquiries that appear to be aimed at longstanding—and, thus far, unsubstantiated—allegations of fraud in the 2020 election that are particularly popular with President Trump and his closest supporters. Last month, FBI agents executed a search warrant on Fulton County’s election office and confiscated ballots and voting equipment used in 2020. Last week, the FBI reportedly subpoenaed records from a conservative Arizona legislator over the state senate’s audit of the 2020 election results in Maricopa County. And days later, the Department of Homeland Security’s Homeland Security Investigations office (or HSI) requested records from Arizona state officials regarding their own investigations into alleged 2020 malfeasance. What should we make of these developments? And at what point should we be concerned about the federal government's engagement in these sorts of matters in advance of the upcoming 2026 midterms?

This week’s object lessons are all-consuming. Kate is celebrating online legal analysis by drinking from her Balkinization mug. Troy is lamenting yet another slate of firings at the FBI by drinking from his EX FED mug. Scott, finding himself with unexpected free time at Union Station, devoured Barbara Tuchman’s “A Distant Mirror: The Calamitous 14th Century.” And Molly introduces us to the texturally triggering cherimoya. 

To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.

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This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes, Daniel Byman, and Ari Tabatabai for an in-depth discussion of the U.S. military operations against Iran, including:

• “Isn’t it Iran-ic.” Trump’s decision to join Israel in removing Ayatollah Khamanei reflects a deep reversal by the president, who has spent years criticizing his predecessors’ own experiences with regime change and other overseas adventurism. What drove Trump to proceed this time, after stopping short twice in the past year? What can we learn from the way the Trump administration has proceeded? And how far will Trump let things go?
• “Bibi’s Big Adventure.” Regime change in Iran is something Israel and the Arab Gulf states have advocated for frequently in the past. But they had all adopted a more cautious and even conciliatory posture toward Iran in the months before the current offensive, at least in public. How has the region approached this conflict? And what will it do moving forward?
• “MIGA.” The death of Ayatollah Khamenei is a major shift in Iran, but we don’t know where it is going to lead. One concern that people have always had about regime change in Iran is that it will be highly destabilizing, resulting in a failed state in a crucial corner of the Middle East. On the other end, other people have asserted that removing the Ayatollah and his regime will give Iran the opportunity to flourish back into a democracy, or at least something closer to a state that’s more stable and free than Iran has been for the last several decades. Between the two is a mass spectrum of possibilities. What does the future hold for Iran in the post-Ayatollah era, if that’s the era that we’re heading into?

In object lessons, Ben is vibe-coding his way through Lawfare’s litigation tracker, as well as vibing his way through The Rest is History’s four-part series, Revolution in Iran. Dan is war-gaming his way through the attack on Iran with Next War: Iran. Scott is consuming as much Iran content as he can get his hands on with (another) Scott Anderson’s “King of Kings,” Roy Mottahedeh’s “The Mantle of the Prophet,” Gary Sick’s “All Fall Down,” and Dutch documentary “The Birthday,” finally discovered online by Lawfare’s own Anna Hickey. And Ari, not to be outdone in Iran content, recommends the graphic novel “Persepolis,” but really is escaping it all with Final Fantasy VII Remake.

To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.

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