Rational Security

This week, a contentedly full post-Thanksgiving Scott and Quinta sat down with two Lawfare colleagues—Senior Editor and Brookings Institution Senior Fellow Molly Reynolds and Cyber Fellow Eugenia Lostri—to talk through the week’s big national security news stories, including:

• “Showdown with an Only O.K. Rationale.” The House and Senate are preparing for a showdown over national security priorities, with assistance for Ukraine (and Israel and border security) hanging in the balance. Where does the debate seem likely to go from here—and what will the global ramifications be?
• “Bringing Down the @SamA.” OpenAI, the non-profit(?) behind ChatGPT, has had a chaotic few weeks, with its board ousting CEO Sam Altman on the apparent grounds that he was not taking AI safety concerns seriously enough, only for the vast majority of organization’s employees to threaten to resign unless he was brought back—a step the board took, just before most of its members resigned. What do these events tell us about the state of the AI industry?
• “Carpe Ceasefire.” A fragile pause in hostilities has emerged centered on the exchange of Israeli hostages held by Hamas for imprisoned Palestinians—momentum the Biden administration is reportedly hoping to build on. Yet calls for a permanent ceasefire continue amidst mounting civilian casualties and humanitarian needs, and there remains no clear plan for a post-war Gaza. How long will the pause last? What happens when hostilities resume?

For object lessons, Quinta recommended the 1990s classic “Distant Star” by Robert Bolaño. Scott gave his Thanksgiving gold star to Eric Kim’s creamy mac and cheese recipe. Molly leaned into her love for local NPR affiliates and recommended WGBH’s podcast “The Big Dig,” focusing on Boston’s legendary highway project. And secret gamer nerd Eugenia recommended a compelling video game that even parents of toddlers have time to tackle, What Remains of Edith Finch.

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This week, Quinta and Scott were jointed by Lawfare Managing Editor Tyler McBrien to talk over some of the week's big national security news, including:

• “The Day After.” As the war in Gaza enters a new phase, discussions are increasingly shifting to focus on how Israel will handle a post-Hamas Gaza Strip—and what long-term impact the conflict will have on the West Bank. How is the day after this war coming into focus?
• “Not Just America’s Mayor…” New York City Mayor Eric Adams is being investigated for accepting donations from a Turkish foundation and other organizations with ties to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, just before lobbying for the early opening of a Turkish consulate in the city. Has Adams done anything wrong? What else could this investigation be looking into?
• “Election Interference Interference Interference.” A lawsuit over the U.S. government’s engagement with social media is interfering with the FBI’s efforts to interfere with those hoping to interfere in our elections—including the upcoming presidential race in 2024. What threats does this chilling effect present? How should the Biden administration be responding?

For object lessons, Quinta recommended “The Vaster Wilds,” Lauren Groff's new adventure story exploring the experience of colonialism. Tyler endorsed Albert Brooks: Defending My Life, the new documentary about the legendary (at least among people over 30) comedian. And Scott told readers to check out “A City on Mars” by Kelly and Zach Weinersmith for a fun (if pessimistic) exploration of all the challenges facing humanity's budding efforts to expand into outer space.

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This week, Quinta and Scott bade a temporary farewell to Alan and spent one last afternoon (for a few months, anyway) digging into the week’s big national security news stories, including:

• “Ceasefire or Misfire?” We are now one month into Israel’s military campaign in the Gaza Strip. As civilian casualties continue to mount and Israel’s ground operations get underway, there are growing calls for a ceasefire—calls that the Biden administration may now be taking up, in more limited and temporary fashion. Where are we in this conflict? Is there any end in sight?
• “Freedom of Screech.” Former President Trump’s speech—and the right to it—is increasingly becoming an issue in his various criminal and civil trials, both legal and otherwise (as evidenced by a recent bout of angry shouting he pursued on the stand in his New York civil case). How have courts been balancing the equities? Is there something they can do better?
• “No, no—THAT’s what the Insurrection Act is for.” In an effort spearheaded by co-conspirator number four himself Jeffrey Clark, President Trump and his allies are reportedly planning for a revenge campaign if he returns to the White House, beginning with a complete takeover of the Justice Department. How realistic are these plans? What can be done to stop them?

For object lessons, Alan recommended Sandra Newman’s “Julia,” a retelling of the classic “1984” from a new perspective. Quinta gave a similar bump to Brandon Taylor’s new novel, “The Late Americans.” And Scott rolled logs for his latest piece for Lawfare, a retrospective on the legacy of the War Powers Resolution fifty years after its enactment.

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This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by Lawfare Fellow in Technology Policy and Law Eugenia Lostri to tackle some of the overlooked national security stories that have been percolating the past few weeks, including:

• “BrokenAI?” The Biden administration has rolled out a groundbreaking new Executive Order on Artificial Intelligence that seeks to take the first steps towards a real regulatory regime for this revolutionary technology. Is this a responsible step? Or does it threaten to put the U.S. development of AI in a regulatory cage?
• “Ending the Fracas in Caracas.” The Biden administration is taking a step towards thawing relations with the Maduro regime in Venezuela, easing sanctions at least temporarily in exchange for the release of political prisoners and a promise to hold competitive elections—though Maduro has yet to agree to ensure that most prominent opposition figures will be allowed to participate. Is this a smart way forward or folly?
• “Let’s Get Mikey to Do It, He’ll Try Anything.” We have a new Speaker of the House in the form of Rep. Mike Johnson. And he has decided to open his speakership with a bold move: separating aid from Israel out from other emergency measures and insisting that it be funded by cuts from the Internal Revenue Service—a move that President Biden has promised to veto and that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has come out publicly against. What does this tell us about the direction Congress is headed in the weeks to come?

For object lessons, Alan shared a bit of comedy in the form of Jeff Maurer’s satire of statements on the Gaza conflict, “Windex Ain’t Scared.” Quinta recommended the second season of “Our Flag Means Death” for a delightful romcom about bloodthirsty pirates. Scott celebrated the power of love. And Eugenia recommended the video game Pillars of Eternity for those desperate to play Baldur’s Gate III but whose computers cannot handle it.

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This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott came together in the virtual studio to talk over the week’s big national security news, including:

• “Stuck in the Middle (East) with You.” The Biden administration is finding itself increasingly pilloried from both sides for its handling of the Oct. 7 massacre perpetrated by Hamas and Israel’s ensuing military response in the Gaza Strip, as the right urges stronger support for Israel while some on the left are becoming more vocal in calling for a ceasefire. How far can the Biden administration walk this tightrope?
• “Et Tu, Jenna?” Four co-defendants of former President Trump, including Rudy Giuliani’s right hand woman Jenna Ellis, have now pled out and promised to cooperate in the Fulton County prosecution addressing alleged election interference—and media reports indicate that his former Chief of Staff Mark Meadows has accepted an immunity deal to testify before a federal grand jury. What does this all mean for Trump’s legal prospects moving forward?
• “Exit, Stage Far Right.” Former President Trump is reportedly once again planning to exit or diminish NATO if he returns to the White House—a position his contender for Republican nominee Vivek Ramaswamy has endorsed. What is the future of U.S. participation in the NATO alliance?

For object lessons, Alan recommended Tiffany Li’s brilliant contribution to McSweeney’s Internet Tendency, “Statement from the University on Current Tensions in the Place You’re Probably Thinking About When You Read This,” which satirizes…exactly what you’re thinking about. Quinta lightened the mood by talking about serial killers in recommending Robert Kolker’s new piece, “The Botched Hunt for the Gilgo Beach Killer,” in the New York Times Magazine. And Scott directed D.C. locals to his favorite amaro distillery, Don Ciccio & Figli, who is brewing up botanicals right here in the city’s own Ivy City neighborhood.

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This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by their Lawfare colleague and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Senior Fellow Eric Ciaramella to discuss the week’s big national security news, including:

• “PiS Off.” Elections in Poland appear set to oust the incumbent Law and Justice (or “PiS”) party, which has spent the past several years in power undermining many of the tenants of liberal democracy—that is, if the coalition of centrist and leftist groups that won a parliamentary majority can successfully form a government. What might this tell us about the authoritarian drift in Europe—and the extent to which it’s reversible?
• “Gaza Under Siege.” Israel’s military response to the massacre committed by Hamas is entering its second week, as rockets continue to rain down on Gaza, which remains cut off to most utilities, supplies, and humanitarian aid. President Biden, meanwhile, is in Israel showing his support, but has had to cancel meetings with Jordanian officials due to outrage over what Gaza authorities initially claimed—inaccurately, according to Israeli officials and the Biden administration—was an Israeli attack on a hospital there that killed more than 500 people. What is the trajectory of this conflict? Where is it headed?
• “Heir Jordan?” Conservative House judiciary committee chairman Jim Jordan is the latest possible inheritor of the Speakership in the House of Representatives, having won the nomination of the Republican caucus shortly after majority leader Steve Scalise went down in defeat on the floor. But Jordan also failed to win enough support for his colleagues in the first two votes on the floor. What does the state of the House mean for the country?

For object lessons, Alan passed along his latest tonally off comfort watch: the British series A Spy Among Friends, which tells the story of notorious spy Kim Philby. Quinta recommended the new book, “Number Go Up,” by Zeke Faux. Scott urged folks to check out the surprisingly huggy and wholesome season 2 of The Bear. And secret musician Eric endorsed the Strong Songs podcast and its close look at the song writing process.

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This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were once again joined by Congress guru Molly Reynolds to discuss the week’s big national security news, including:

• “Master of the House, Doling out the Harm, Ready with a Handshake and a Face Palm.” Over the weekend, Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy narrowly avoided a government shutdown. But this week it cost him his speakership, as Democrats joined a bloc of far-right Republicans to vote in favor of a motion to vacate the office. What does this say about the state of the House? And what does it mean for the Biden administration’s legislative agenda moving forward?
• “Serving Life to 20.” As the Supreme Court begins its new term under increased scrutiny for ethical lapses, several members of Congress have once again introduced legislation that would impose 18-year term limits on the Court’s members. But would this proposal fix the problem? And is it constitutional?
• “A Foreign Confluence Operation.” Washington has been in a tizzy this week with scandalizing reports of an Iranian influence operation that purportedly sought to influence U.S. policy through several prominent scholars of Iranian descent—some of whom now serve in the Biden administration or are close to beleaguered Iran Special Envoy Rob O’Malley, whose security clearance is currently suspended. What should we make of this story? 

For object lessons, Alan gave a shout-out to the most recent incarnation of Dune and its soon-to-be-forthcoming sequel. Quinta urged listeners to check out the book “Your Face Belongs to Us,” the creepy-yet-true story of the growth of facial recognition technology and the rise of the start-up that sold it worldwide. And Scott recommended his favorite seasonal cookbook as we get into the cold weather months: Anna Thomas’s “Love Soup.”

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This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott reunited to discuss the week’s big national security news, including:

• “Do as I Menendsez, Not as I Menendo.” New Jersey Senator and, until recently, chairman of the Senate foreign relations committee Bob Menendez was indicted alongside his wife last week, on charges that they accepted money from Egyptian businessmen in exchange for information and favors arising from Menendez’s official duties. How serious are these charges? Where will they lead?
• “…with a Silver Spoon.” D.C. federal district court judge Tanya Chutkan is weighing a gag order on former President Trump, aimed at restraining him from commenting on the proceedings or attacking various officials involved in them. Trump and his attorneys, meanwhile, see the gag order request as an attack on his First Amendment rights. Who is likely to prevail? And what are the broader stakes?
• “The Forever Chore.” The House foreign affairs committee is set to hold the latest in a long series of hearings on a topic that has been on Congress’s agenda for more than a decade: reforming the 2001 AUMF that provides the legal basis for most global counterterrorism operations. But despite near-universal agreement on the need for change, progress has been limited. Is there reason to think this time will be different?

For object lessons, Alan recommended the Dear Committee Trilogy, which even non-academics will find hilarious. Quinta urged listeners to check out the recent New York court decision concluding that former President Trump and his businesses misrepresented the value of various properties. And Scott log-rolled for his new law review article digging into some of the tricky constitutional issues raised by the prospect of defending Taiwan.

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This week, Quinta and Scott were joined by Lawfare colleagues Eric Ciaramella and Saraphin Dhanani, the latter for her last episode of RatSec before departing Lawfare, to break down the week’s big national security news stories, including:

• “UNGA UNGA Party.” President Biden and Ukrainian President Volodmyr Zelenskyy made back-to-back addresses to the U.N. General Assembly, which is gathered in New York for its annual summit this week. What should we make of their statements? Might this be a turning point for the conflict—and, if so, in which direction?
• “Et Tu, Modi?” Canada has leveled a serious allegation against the government of India: that it was directly involved in the recent assassination of a Sikh separatist leader (and Canadian citizen) on Canadian soil—something that promises to complicate U.S. efforts to bring India into the fold as a balance to China. How credible are these claims and what might they mean?
• “Ransomwhere?” The Biden administration has struck a deal with the government of Iran, exchanging several imprisoned Iranian nationals and $6 billion in frozen oil revenue for five U.S. nationals held by Iran and their spouses. Is this negotiating with terrorists, a new opening for Iran negotiations, or something else entirely?

For object lessons, Quinta recommended Tyler Austin Harper’s penetrating review of Richard Hanania’s “The Origins of Woke.” Eric also went the critic’s route and passed along Gary Shteyngart’s withering review of Walter Isaacson’s new Elon Musk biography. Scott urged anyone with a junior mycologist at home to run out and find Elise Gravel’s charming “The Mushroom Fan Club.” And Saraphin gave a double-headed finale: BBC’s controversial documentary “India: The Modi Question,” which has been banned in India; and David Brooks’ recent article, “How America Got Mean.”

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