Rational Security

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott sat down to talk over the week's post-Independence Day national security news, including:

• “Oy Revolt.” Israel launched a major military operation aimed at uprooting terrorist bases in the refugee camp outside the city of Jenin in the West Bank this week. But as is so often the case, the operation not only proved deadly for Palestinian civilians but has become a point of controversy in the international community. What does this operation say about Israel’s security strategy? 
• “Nationwide Disjunction.” On July 4, a federal judge in Louisiana issued a nationwide injunction ordering the Biden administration not to engage with social media platforms over First Amendment protected speech, arising out of complaints about its handling of COVID-19 information (or misinformation). What is the basis for this order, how realistic is it, how sustainable is it, and what does it tell us about the weird legal dynamics surrounding this set of issues at the moment?
• “A la Modi.” Indian President Narendra Modi is having a moment. This week he is sitting down with Chinese and Russian leaders, hosting a virtual face-to-face of the Shanghai Cooperative. This just a week after he was feted by President Biden and Congress here in Washington, D.C. What are we to make of India’s new global prominence?

For object lessons, Alan once again celebrated the virtues of Libby and recommended John Lewis Gaddis's classic biography of legendary diplomat George F. Kennan, “George F. Kennan: An American Life,” as listening fodder. Quinta lamented the death of Audm and cursed its replacement. And Scott gave another audiobook recommendation for fans of U.S. diplomatic history: George C. Herring's “From Colony to Superpower.”

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This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by their colleague and think-tank neighbor, Russia/Ukraine expert Eric Ciaramella, to talk over the week's big news, including:

• “Going All (Prigozh)in.” Yevgeny Prighozin, leader of the mercenary Wagner Group, went all in this past week, marching his troops into Russia and halfway to Moscow for the stated purpose of removing Russia’s military leadership, only to abruptly halt and accept exile in Belarus instead. What does this mean for the conflict in Ukraine—and future of the Putin regime?
• “Lost at Sea.” In a busy week of news, one story has gotten surprisingly little attention: the tragic sinking of an overcrowded smugglers’ boat off the coast of Greece that claimed the lives of hundreds of migrants. What does this incident tell us about the dynamics of the migrant crisis in the Mediterranean—and how the world views it?
• “Moore, Moore, Moore! (How do YOU like it?)” The Supreme Court issued decisions in three major cases this past week, including addressing the much-discussed Independent State Legislature Doctrine in Moore v. Harper. What did the Court decide, and what will these decisions mean?

For object lessons, Scott flagged that Lawfare has a new website, now located at www.lawfaremedia.org! Alan recommended the new sci-fi think-piece "The Mountain in the Sea" by Ray Nayler. Quinta endorsed Mohsin Hamid's book "Exit West" as a meditation on borders and crossing them. And Eric urged listeners to check out the epic guitar riffs of the Tuareg music collective Tinariwen. 

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This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by UVA Law Professor Paul Stephan to talk through the close-calls in this week's national security news, including:

• “Xi’s All That.” Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Beijing this past week, for a long delayed sit-down with President Xi Jinping to try and de-escalate the two superpowers’ tense relationship. Was this meeting a smart move or a giveaway? And what should we make of President Biden calling the Chinese leader a “dictator” shortly after Blinken’s return?
• “Adverse REPOssession.” The question of what to do with the $300 billion in Russia-related assets frozen by the United States and its allies has reemerged, with members of Congress recently introducing a new version of the REPO Act that would seize those assets and make them available as reparations for Ukraine, among other purposes. Is seizure the right way to handle these assets? What challenges and risks might such a dramatic step encounter?
• “Robo Joe.” President Biden joined a summit of leaders in the AI industry this week as part of his administration’s ongoing effort to seriously engage the policy challenges raised by AI technology. But what are the realistic prospects for regulation? And what form should it take?

For object lessons, Alan recommended the new Apple comedy “Platonic.” Quinta doubled-down on the TV recommendations with the stage play-turned-movie about leaks in the intelligence community, “Reality.” Scott urged listeners to check out Gil Scott-Heron’s classic 2010 final album “I’m New Here,” and two phenomenal reimaginings: “We’re New Here” by Jamiexx and “We’re New Again” by Makaya McCraven. And Paul recommended the new book “The Lock-Up: A Novel” by John Banville.

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This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by Lawfare Legal Fellow Anna Bower fresh from the Miami court system to discuss the week's yuge national security news story—and one more for good measure:

• “Aileen, Aileen, Aileen, Aileen! Please don’t take this case just ‘cuz you can.” Former President Donald J. Trump was arraigned in federal court on Tuesday, the first step in a criminal trial expected to be overseen by none other than our old friend Judge Aileen Cannon. Will the charges for unlawful retention or obstruction of justice stick? And where is the trial likely to go from here?
• “It’s Arraignin’ Men.” The indictment of Trump in the Mar-a-Lago investigation is the first of its kind. But will it be the last? What else is the special counsel investigating? And are there other charges he might pursue, against Trump or others?
• “Xi Guevara.” Washington is up in arms over a spy station China is setting up in Cuba—or might have been operating for years. How big a deal is this? Are the reactions high-minded or hyperbole?

For object lessons, Alan stuffed his chubby little face with Turkish delight. Quinta recommended the new climate change publication Heatmap. Scott urged listeners to try a version of one of his favorite recipes for farmer market season, the unlikely spicy mushroom larb. And Anna recommended that anyone who finds themselves in Miami in serious need of a coffee fix try out a colada coffee.

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This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott braved the haze to talk through the week’s (very) big national security news stories, including:

• “Downstream Effects.” The destruction of the Kakhovka Dam in Ukraine promises a new wave of suffering and environmental devastation for Ukrainians living along the Dnipro River. Who is responsible? And what could the ramifications be?
• “He’s Off to Meet the Wizard, The Wonderful Wizard of Laws.” Over the past few weeks, there has been a steady drip of information about Special Counsel Jack Smith’s investigation into former President Trump, leading many to conclude that an indictment is on the horizon. What do we know about the state of the investigation? And where does it seem headed?
• “Party Animals.” The number of contenders in the 2024 Republican presidential primary has officially doubled, with new candidates like Chris Christie and Mike Pence presenting—or being unable to avoid—the legacy of Jan. 6, among other issues with the direction of the party under former President Trump. What does this mean for the shape of the race? And will it mean for the debate over democratic values?

For object lessons, Alan urged listeners to check out the books of author Amor Towles, including his latest book “The Lincoln Highway.” Quinta passed along Tim Alberta’s devastating profile of (now former) CNN CEO Chris Licht in The Atlantic, which led to his recent fall. And Scott shared an invaluable set of resources his friend Aman put together for those considering jumping into what may be the greatest means of local transportation out there: eBikes!

And here’s an article we mentioned in this week’s episode:

• Ben Wittes’s article in Lawfare on “How to Read a News Story About an Investigation: Eight Tips on Who Is Saying What”

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This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by their Brookings and Lawfare colleague Molly Reynolds to talk all things Congress in the week’s national security news, including:

• Shattering the Must-Pass Ceiling.” Earlier this week, President Joe Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy announced a deal on raising the debt ceiling, and thereby avoiding a potential financial catastrophe. The question now is whether they can sell it to enough members of Congress, where right-wing members of McCarthy’s caucus are promising to sink it. Will the deal make it through? And if not, what might come next?
• “Recep Tayyip Erdo-won.” After a close fought contest, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has emerged victorious from run-offs in Türkiye’s national elections, positioning him for a third term in office and a third decade in power. Does the reelection of the increasingly autocratic figure mean the further decline of Turkish democracy? And Türkiye’s flagging relationship with the West?
• “I’m Sorry, Dave. I’m Afraid That’s Not Regulation.” The head of several leading AI developers are actively urging Congress to regulate the industry—even as they continue to roll out new products to the public with untested capabilities. How seriously should we take this plea? And is it aimed at the right risk?

For object lessons, Quinta shared Suzy Hansen’s excellent article on the recent earthquake in Turkey and its aftermath. Alan recommended the Pulitzer-winning “American Prometheus,” a biography of Robert Oppenheimer, which he is listening to on audiobook. Scott passed along an article about the “Succession syndrome” plaguing the world’s super rich and the elite rehab facilities helping to save them. And Molly shared the biggest story in gold bar news of the week, another possible corruption scandal involving Sen. Bob Menendez.

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This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were reunited to celebrate Alan's gradual physical and mental decline, and to talk over the week in national security news, including:

• “Fear of Flying.” President Biden finally greenlit the transfer of F-16s to Ukraine, despite Russia’s warnings—just as the siege at Bakhmut signals a brutal new phase of the conflict. Is this the right move? Or is the risk of escalation too great?
• “Big Sky, Closed Borders.” Social media company TikTok is challenging a new Montana law barring its use in the state on a variety of constitutional grounds, including the First Amendment and foreign affairs preemption. Are there legal barriers to state efforts to regulate platforms like TikTok? Or does Montana have the better arguments?
• “Putting the ‘Err’ in Durham.” Special Counsel John Durham has released the final report of his investigation into the original of the FBI investigation into possible links between the Trump campaign and Russia. And while the report has some celebrating, it’s left many others scratching their heads.

For object lessons, Alan shared his favorite birthday present: the brownie edge pan his wife got him. Quinta passed along a true D.C. story from a concert she saw the night before, involving The National and a former Deputy Solicitor General. And Scott recommended Patrick Weil's new book, “The Madman in the White House,” an eclectic biography of an eclectic biography: a psychoanalysis of Woodrow Wilson, written by Ambassador William Bullitt and Sigmund Freud, lost for more than seventy years and recently found.

Here are links to some other pieces we mentioned in this episode:

• New York Times: "The Battle for Bakhmut"
• ClickHole: "Legal Bombshell: Mueller Flipped Trump’s Confidant’s Lawyer’s Friend’s Associate Gorpman (Who Could Testify Against Bleemer!) And It’s Not Even Lunchtime"

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This week, Alan and Scott were joined by co-host emeritus (and Washington Post star reporter) Shane Harris to talk over the week's news! Including:

• “Flight of the Valkyries.” Recently leaked U.S. intelligence reports allege that Wagner Group owner Yevgeniy Prighozin—who has privately and publicly feuded with the Russian military leadership in recent weeks and even threatened to pull his mercenary troops from the conflict—has been in contact with Ukrainian intelligence and offered to share Russian troop positions in exchange for concessions around the disputed city of Bakhmut. Is Prighozin trying to find a path to retreat? What do his actions tell us about the conflict?
• “Jerkiye Boy.” Twitter owner Elon Musk has come under criticism for the company’s latest bad call: censoring certain content at the request of the Erdogan government in Türkiye, just prior to national elections there. How should Twitter have responded to the demands of Turkish officials? And how has Musk’s erratic leadership affected the company’s approach to such issues?
• “BootLichter.” CNN and its CEO Chris Licht are experiencing blowback from the decision to host a town hall with former President Donald Trump before an audience of his supporters, at which he repeated an array of lies about the 2020 election results, the recent judgment finding him liable for sexual battery, and his potential legal exposure for retaining classified documents, among other items. Was CNN in the wrong? How should it handle Trump (and other candidates)?

For object lessons, Alan recommended his annual reading on the Eurovision contest, Anthony Lane's 2010 New Yorker essay, "Only Mr. God Knows Why." Scott passed along some favorites from his reading-heavy vacation, including Arkady Martine's fantastic "A Memory Called Empire." And Shane, in true Shane fashion, gave his wholehearted endorsement to a new spy thriller coming to Showtime this week: "Ghosts of Beirut," about the hunt for terrorist mastermind Imad Mughniyeh.

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This week, Scott took a well-deserved vacation, so Alan and Quinta were joined by Lawfare managing editor Tyler McBrien to discuss:

• “But I thought 42 was the answer to life, the universe, and everything.” This week the Biden administration will cease Title 42, the policy linked to the Covid public health emergency under which asylum seekers could be turned back at the border. In its place, the administration is implementing a new rule that substantially limits asylum, limitations that, before the Trump administration implemented Title 42, would have been unthinkable. What should we make of the Biden administration’s embrace of immigration restrictions?
• “Every time a tragedy, increasingly also a farce.” Over the weekend, a gunman opened fire at an outlet mall in Allen, Texas, killing at least 8 people and injuring at least 7 before being killed by police. Tragically, this wasn’t even the deadliest mass shooting on record this year. How did mass shootings become America’s pastime, and what can be done to stop them?
• “BuzzFeed? More Like Buzz Kill.” Late last month, BuzzFeed News announced that it was shutting down. The news site always courted controversy, never more so than when, in 2017, it published the unverified and infamous “Steele Dossier” alleging that Russia had compromising information on newly elected president Donald Trump. But the site had notable successes as well, earning a George Polk Award and a Pulitzer Prize. What does BuzzFeed News’s end signal about the future of journalism?

For object lessons, Quinta highlighted Caitlin Dickerson’s Pulitzer-winning coverage of family separation in The Atlantic, Tyler recommended the new global publication The Dial, and Alan raved about his new favorite dystopian sci-fi show, Silo.

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This week, a Quinta-less Alan and Scott were joined by Lawfare legal fellow Saraphin Dhanani to talk through the week's big national security news, including:

• “Seoul Authority.” South Korea and the United States recommitted themselves to their close security relationship this past week, including through a state dinner and a new Washington Declaration that confirms that the United States will respond to any nuclear attack on South Korea with overwhelming force. What drove this public showing? And what impact will it have on the nuclear threat posed by North Korea?
• “The Uncanny X-Date.” The debate over raising the debt ceiling took on new urgency this week, when Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced that the United States might meet the ‘X-Date’ at which it defaults on its obligations as soon as June 1. Yet there are few signs of a compromise, as House Republicans have dug in on a proposal that demands deep spending cuts while the Biden administration continues to push for a clean raise. Where will this debate lead?
• “Washington Contentious.” National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan gave remarks at our own Brookings Institution this past week, laying out a new approach to international economic policy. What should we make of this new ‘Washington Consensus’?

For object lessons, Alan recommended Matthew Continetti's (audio)book on American conservatism, "The Right." Scott decided to shil for his favorite (washable!) shoe brand (for men!), Rothy's. And Saraphin overcame her natural aversion to musicals to endorse the current Broadway run of Stephen Sondheim's classic, "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street."

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